The Chinese government has set ambitious targets to reduce the per unit of GDP by 40% ~45% during 2005 to 2020 and achieve the intensity peaking of carbon emissions of CO2 emissions a- round 2030. The T21 national dev...The Chinese government has set ambitious targets to reduce the per unit of GDP by 40% ~45% during 2005 to 2020 and achieve the intensity peaking of carbon emissions of CO2 emissions a- round 2030. The T21 national development model for China was developed for the purpose of analy- zing the effects of long-term national policies that relate to carbon emissions, loss of farm land, water shortage, energy security, food security, and their contributions to this reduction target. The focus of this paper is on the policies that have substantial impacts on carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Four scenarios are developed with the model to simulate future carbon emissions ： 1 ） the BAU （ busi- ness as usual） scenario, showing the likely results of continuing current policies; 2 ） the TECH （technology） scenario showing the effects of more investment in renewable energy sources and promoting more energy efficient technologies; 3 ） the BEHAVIOR scenario, showing how government tax and price policies, together with public education programs, would instigate behaviour changes towards more sustainable living; and 4 ） the TECH＆BEHA scenario, which shows the results of combining scenarios 2 and 3. The simulation results show that CO2 emissions reduction targets of China are achievable, but also require great effort to put in.展开更多
This paper quantifies a decomposition analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in the industrial sectors of Shanghai over the period 1994-2007.The Log-Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method is applied to this study in terms ...This paper quantifies a decomposition analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in the industrial sectors of Shanghai over the period 1994-2007.The Log-Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method is applied to this study in terms of six factors:labor force,labor mobility,gross labor productivity,energy intensity,fuel mix,and emission coefficient.In addition,the decoupling effect between industrial economic growth and CO2 emissions is analyzed to evaluate CO2 mitigation strategies for Shanghai.The results show that all labor productivity has the largest positive effect on CO2 emission changes in the industrial sectors,whereas labor mobility and energy intensity are the main components for decreasing CO2 emissions.Other factors have different effects on CO2 mitigation in different sub-periods.Although a relative decoupling of industrial CO2 emissions from the economic growth in Shanghai has been found,Shanghai should keep pace with the industrial CO2 emissions reduction by implementing low-carbon technology.These results have important policy implications:Plan C is the reasonable choice for Shanghai.展开更多
Several representative studies on China＇s carbon emission scenarios in 2050 are compared in scenario settings, methodologies, macro parameters, energy consumption and structure, carbon emissions, and carbon emission ...Several representative studies on China＇s carbon emission scenarios in 2050 are compared in scenario settings, methodologies, macro parameters, energy consumption and structure, carbon emissions, and carbon emission intensity. Under the baseline scenario of the present policy framework, the future energy structure will be optimized and carbon emission intensity will decrease continually. China＇s carbon emissions up to 2050 show a significant increase reaching between 11.9 Gt and 16.2 Gt CO2 in 2050. By strengthening a low carbon policy, the optimization of energy structure and the decline in carbon emission intensity will become more obvious within the comparative scenarios, which show a significant decrease in carbon emission until 2050 reaching only between 4.3 Gt and 9.5 Gt CO2 bv then.展开更多
China achieved major progress in low-carbon development during the period of the 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010). The increasing trend of energy intensity and carbon intensity of the economy as seen prior to 2005 was ...China achieved major progress in low-carbon development during the period of the 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010). The increasing trend of energy intensity and carbon intensity of the economy as seen prior to 2005 was reversed to a sharp decreasing trend, leading to a 19% decrease in energy intensity and 21% decrease in carbon intensity in five years. The enhanced energy efficiency, mostly due to efficiency improvement in power and manufacturing sector, is the major driver of the decrease in carbon intensity of the economy. The development of renewable energy, despite its impressive growth rate, played a minor role because of its small share in the energy mix of the country. Energy con-sumption and energy-related carbon emissions per unit of area in building continued to grow at a lesser rate, which, combined with the fast growth of total building volume, led to fast growth in total energy consumption and carbon emissions in the sector. Similar trend is observed in the transportation sector whose total energy use and carbon emissions continued to grow fast despite slight improvement in energy efficiency. Agricultural energy use experienced a slight change and forestry made a major contribution to carbon sinks. Policy and institutional innovations helped build a solid system of rules for low-carbon development. Improving cost effectiveness of the system remains a major challenge for the next five year plan period.展开更多
The objective of this research is to quantify the EEC （embodied energy/CO2） of a building. The EEC represents the energy consumption and CO2 emissions at individual phases of a building＇s life-cycle, such as constr...The objective of this research is to quantify the EEC （embodied energy/CO2） of a building. The EEC represents the energy consumption and CO2 emissions at individual phases of a building＇s life-cycle, such as construction （including manufacture of materials and equipment）, renewal （including repair work） and demolition. Energy and CO2 emission intensities in terms of 401 sectors were calculated, using the 2005 I-O （input-output） table in Japan. According to our case study conducted from the construction phase to demolition, the EC （embodied CO2） of an office building used for 60 years is 12,044 t-CO2 and 1,093 kg-CO2/m^2 in total. CO2 equivalent emissions （CO2e） by Freon gases, contained in building materials, equipment and devices, were also calculated. As the results, CO2e by insulators was 2% of the building＇s EC and CO2e by refrigerants was 9%-12% of the building＇s EC. It is important to keep reducing emissions of Freon gases contained in refrigerators.展开更多
This field study sought to determine the all-weather surface construction providing the least contaminated runoff and drainage effluent when exposed to moderate to heavy precipitation and different manure loads in hor...This field study sought to determine the all-weather surface construction providing the least contaminated runoff and drainage effluent when exposed to moderate to heavy precipitation and different manure loads in horse paddocks during wintertime. Two different combinations of non-woven and woven geotextile together with two gravel fractions of 200 nlm were exposed to precipitation and horse manure/urine for two years under two manure regimes （manure removal and manure accumulation）. In a simulated rainfall （SR） study, the test areas were also exposed to 50 mm precipitation for 30 min and 15 kg of horse manure under the two manure regimes. Runoff, drainage effluent and leachate flow were measured and sampled for both regimes. The geotextile-gravel construction reduced runoff and drained the test area throughout the two-year period, confirming construction stability and a dry walking surface area at a mean drain flow of 3.65 L m2 h1. The concentrations of total N, total phosphorus （TP）, chemical oxygen demand （COD） and total solids （TS） in fluids leaving the test areas in winter were lower than in previous studies, due to lower horse density. The mean drainage concentration of TP, COD and TS was 3.4, 231, 739 mg L1, respectively, due to manure removal in the SR study. The TP （1.9 mg L-1） concentration in drain fluids was reduced by 47% in the test area consisting of a single geotextile compared with previously reported values （3.6 mg Ll）. With the paddock designs tested here, non-point pollution from paddocks could be controlled and reduced.展开更多
This paper creates an extended import-competitive economy-energy-environmental input/output model and employs a structural decomposition analysis （SDA） approach based on double-layer nested structural formulae to br...This paper creates an extended import-competitive economy-energy-environmental input/output model and employs a structural decomposition analysis （SDA） approach based on double-layer nested structural formulae to break down China＇s carbon dioxide emissions growth between 1992 and 2007from three perspectives： the overall economy, by-industry and by industrial sectors. Analysis results indicate that the energy intensity effect remains the biggest factor behind carbon emissions reduction. This paper also .found that between 2002 and 2007, China＇s carbon emissions growth obviously accelerated compared to the previous period, which indicates a ＂high carbon＂ tendency in the new round of industrialization. Therefore, in addition to developing a circular economy and clean production, accelerating the phasing out of backward capacities, and developing new energies, China should further encompass the positive role of energy intensity.展开更多
Here we utilize input-output tables for 2005 and 2010 to calculate the change in carbon dioxide emission intensity. Results show that total carbon dioxide emissions were 6.79 and 9.30 billion tons, and carbon dioxide ...Here we utilize input-output tables for 2005 and 2010 to calculate the change in carbon dioxide emission intensity. Results show that total carbon dioxide emissions were 6.79 and 9.30 billion tons, and carbon dioxide emission intensity was 0.37 and 0.33 ton per thousand CNY in 2005 and 2010, respectively. Carbon dioxide emission intensity declined 11% over these five years. We used structural decomposition analysis modeling to measure the effect of four factors on this reduction in intensity. We found that the contribution values of energy structure, energy efficiency, economic growth mode and economic structure were -0.001, -0.102, 0.050, and 0.013 ton per thousand CNY, respectively. Changes in energy efficiency and energy structure are major factors promoting decreases in carbon dioxide emission intensity; the effect of the former is more distinct than the latter. Economic growth mode and economic structure are major factors that increase carbon dioxide emission intensity, whereby the effect of the former is more distinct than the latter.展开更多
In this article, we calculate China's Mainland’s CO2 emission of fossil fuel consumption from 1991 to 2010 following the apparent consumption method recommend by IPCC： （i） the scale of CO2 emissions has increa...In this article, we calculate China's Mainland’s CO2 emission of fossil fuel consumption from 1991 to 2010 following the apparent consumption method recommend by IPCC： （i） the scale of CO2 emissions has increased nearly to 4 times as that in 1991; （ii） coal consumption constitutes the highest proportion due to the richness of coal resources in China; （iii） per capita CO2 emission has increased from 1.98 to 5.57 t CO2 ; （iv） carbon emission intensity declined significantly from 6.66 to 1.07 kg CO2 USD -1 , but recently it tends to be stable; and （v） regional develop gaps remain in China's Mainland, for according to the provincial data, in many developing regions economic increase over-reliance on fossil fuel consumption. China has made the promises and already taken actions to deal with the high carbon emission. Comprehensively considering the sustainability of development and the uncertainties remaining in global climate change, healthier structures of industry, intensive usage of fossil fuel, and a more balanced development pattern among the southern, central and western China should be put more emphasis.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Science&Technology Pillar Program(No.2012BAC20B09)
文摘The Chinese government has set ambitious targets to reduce the per unit of GDP by 40% ~45% during 2005 to 2020 and achieve the intensity peaking of carbon emissions of CO2 emissions a- round 2030. The T21 national development model for China was developed for the purpose of analy- zing the effects of long-term national policies that relate to carbon emissions, loss of farm land, water shortage, energy security, food security, and their contributions to this reduction target. The focus of this paper is on the policies that have substantial impacts on carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Four scenarios are developed with the model to simulate future carbon emissions ： 1 ） the BAU （ busi- ness as usual） scenario, showing the likely results of continuing current policies; 2 ） the TECH （technology） scenario showing the effects of more investment in renewable energy sources and promoting more energy efficient technologies; 3 ） the BEHAVIOR scenario, showing how government tax and price policies, together with public education programs, would instigate behaviour changes towards more sustainable living; and 4 ） the TECH＆BEHA scenario, which shows the results of combining scenarios 2 and 3. The simulation results show that CO2 emissions reduction targets of China are achievable, but also require great effort to put in.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71173157)the State Key Program of the National Social Science Foundation of Ching (Grant No.11AZD102)
文摘This paper quantifies a decomposition analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in the industrial sectors of Shanghai over the period 1994-2007.The Log-Mean Divisia Index(LMDI) method is applied to this study in terms of six factors:labor force,labor mobility,gross labor productivity,energy intensity,fuel mix,and emission coefficient.In addition,the decoupling effect between industrial economic growth and CO2 emissions is analyzed to evaluate CO2 mitigation strategies for Shanghai.The results show that all labor productivity has the largest positive effect on CO2 emission changes in the industrial sectors,whereas labor mobility and energy intensity are the main components for decreasing CO2 emissions.Other factors have different effects on CO2 mitigation in different sub-periods.Although a relative decoupling of industrial CO2 emissions from the economic growth in Shanghai has been found,Shanghai should keep pace with the industrial CO2 emissions reduction by implementing low-carbon technology.These results have important policy implications:Plan C is the reasonable choice for Shanghai.
基金supported by the "Low Carbon Economy Academy Special Programs,Tsinghua University Independent Research Plan"
文摘Several representative studies on China＇s carbon emission scenarios in 2050 are compared in scenario settings, methodologies, macro parameters, energy consumption and structure, carbon emissions, and carbon emission intensity. Under the baseline scenario of the present policy framework, the future energy structure will be optimized and carbon emission intensity will decrease continually. China＇s carbon emissions up to 2050 show a significant increase reaching between 11.9 Gt and 16.2 Gt CO2 in 2050. By strengthening a low carbon policy, the optimization of energy structure and the decline in carbon emission intensity will become more obvious within the comparative scenarios, which show a significant decrease in carbon emission until 2050 reaching only between 4.3 Gt and 9.5 Gt CO2 bv then.
基金Parts of the research funding comefrom International Climate Policy Initiative funded by the Soros Foundation
文摘China achieved major progress in low-carbon development during the period of the 11th Five Year Plan (2006-2010). The increasing trend of energy intensity and carbon intensity of the economy as seen prior to 2005 was reversed to a sharp decreasing trend, leading to a 19% decrease in energy intensity and 21% decrease in carbon intensity in five years. The enhanced energy efficiency, mostly due to efficiency improvement in power and manufacturing sector, is the major driver of the decrease in carbon intensity of the economy. The development of renewable energy, despite its impressive growth rate, played a minor role because of its small share in the energy mix of the country. Energy con-sumption and energy-related carbon emissions per unit of area in building continued to grow at a lesser rate, which, combined with the fast growth of total building volume, led to fast growth in total energy consumption and carbon emissions in the sector. Similar trend is observed in the transportation sector whose total energy use and carbon emissions continued to grow fast despite slight improvement in energy efficiency. Agricultural energy use experienced a slight change and forestry made a major contribution to carbon sinks. Policy and institutional innovations helped build a solid system of rules for low-carbon development. Improving cost effectiveness of the system remains a major challenge for the next five year plan period.
文摘The objective of this research is to quantify the EEC （embodied energy/CO2） of a building. The EEC represents the energy consumption and CO2 emissions at individual phases of a building＇s life-cycle, such as construction （including manufacture of materials and equipment）, renewal （including repair work） and demolition. Energy and CO2 emission intensities in terms of 401 sectors were calculated, using the 2005 I-O （input-output） table in Japan. According to our case study conducted from the construction phase to demolition, the EC （embodied CO2） of an office building used for 60 years is 12,044 t-CO2 and 1,093 kg-CO2/m^2 in total. CO2 equivalent emissions （CO2e） by Freon gases, contained in building materials, equipment and devices, were also calculated. As the results, CO2e by insulators was 2% of the building＇s EC and CO2e by refrigerants was 9%-12% of the building＇s EC. It is important to keep reducing emissions of Freon gases contained in refrigerators.
文摘This field study sought to determine the all-weather surface construction providing the least contaminated runoff and drainage effluent when exposed to moderate to heavy precipitation and different manure loads in horse paddocks during wintertime. Two different combinations of non-woven and woven geotextile together with two gravel fractions of 200 nlm were exposed to precipitation and horse manure/urine for two years under two manure regimes （manure removal and manure accumulation）. In a simulated rainfall （SR） study, the test areas were also exposed to 50 mm precipitation for 30 min and 15 kg of horse manure under the two manure regimes. Runoff, drainage effluent and leachate flow were measured and sampled for both regimes. The geotextile-gravel construction reduced runoff and drained the test area throughout the two-year period, confirming construction stability and a dry walking surface area at a mean drain flow of 3.65 L m2 h1. The concentrations of total N, total phosphorus （TP）, chemical oxygen demand （COD） and total solids （TS） in fluids leaving the test areas in winter were lower than in previous studies, due to lower horse density. The mean drainage concentration of TP, COD and TS was 3.4, 231, 739 mg L1, respectively, due to manure removal in the SR study. The TP （1.9 mg L-1） concentration in drain fluids was reduced by 47% in the test area consisting of a single geotextile compared with previously reported values （3.6 mg Ll）. With the paddock designs tested here, non-point pollution from paddocks could be controlled and reduced.
文摘This paper creates an extended import-competitive economy-energy-environmental input/output model and employs a structural decomposition analysis （SDA） approach based on double-layer nested structural formulae to break down China＇s carbon dioxide emissions growth between 1992 and 2007from three perspectives： the overall economy, by-industry and by industrial sectors. Analysis results indicate that the energy intensity effect remains the biggest factor behind carbon emissions reduction. This paper also .found that between 2002 and 2007, China＇s carbon emissions growth obviously accelerated compared to the previous period, which indicates a ＂high carbon＂ tendency in the new round of industrialization. Therefore, in addition to developing a circular economy and clean production, accelerating the phasing out of backward capacities, and developing new energies, China should further encompass the positive role of energy intensity.
基金National Natural Science Fund of China(No.71103012)Humanities and Social Science Project of Beijing University of Technology(No.X5104001201201)
文摘Here we utilize input-output tables for 2005 and 2010 to calculate the change in carbon dioxide emission intensity. Results show that total carbon dioxide emissions were 6.79 and 9.30 billion tons, and carbon dioxide emission intensity was 0.37 and 0.33 ton per thousand CNY in 2005 and 2010, respectively. Carbon dioxide emission intensity declined 11% over these five years. We used structural decomposition analysis modeling to measure the effect of four factors on this reduction in intensity. We found that the contribution values of energy structure, energy efficiency, economic growth mode and economic structure were -0.001, -0.102, 0.050, and 0.013 ton per thousand CNY, respectively. Changes in energy efficiency and energy structure are major factors promoting decreases in carbon dioxide emission intensity; the effect of the former is more distinct than the latter. Economic growth mode and economic structure are major factors that increase carbon dioxide emission intensity, whereby the effect of the former is more distinct than the latter.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31070384)
文摘In this article, we calculate China's Mainland’s CO2 emission of fossil fuel consumption from 1991 to 2010 following the apparent consumption method recommend by IPCC： （i） the scale of CO2 emissions has increased nearly to 4 times as that in 1991; （ii） coal consumption constitutes the highest proportion due to the richness of coal resources in China; （iii） per capita CO2 emission has increased from 1.98 to 5.57 t CO2 ; （iv） carbon emission intensity declined significantly from 6.66 to 1.07 kg CO2 USD -1 , but recently it tends to be stable; and （v） regional develop gaps remain in China's Mainland, for according to the provincial data, in many developing regions economic increase over-reliance on fossil fuel consumption. China has made the promises and already taken actions to deal with the high carbon emission. Comprehensively considering the sustainability of development and the uncertainties remaining in global climate change, healthier structures of industry, intensive usage of fossil fuel, and a more balanced development pattern among the southern, central and western China should be put more emphasis.
