In recent years, there have been considerable developments in energy provision with the growing improvements in energy supply security and support systems in China. However, China's energy system continues to reta...In recent years, there have been considerable developments in energy provision with the growing improvements in energy supply security and support systems in China. However, China's energy system continues to retain a high-carbon feature where coal dominates energy production and consumption, which has led to the rapid growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated serious environmental pollution. It has therefore become an important task for China to consider how to promote the low-carbon development of energy system. This paper summarized the basic trends and challenges for development of low-carbon energy system in China and studied the primary energy consumption and carbon emissions in different scenarios at 10-year intervals between 2010 and 2050. The analysis showed that controlling coal consumption will have an important influence on the control of total carbon emissions and of carbon emission peaking; promotion of non-fossil fuel energies will offer a growing contribution to a low-carbon transition in the medium and long term; the development of carbon capture, utilization, and storage will play a key role in realizing a deep decarbonization pathway, particularly after 2030; and the establishment of a low-carbon power system is crucial for the achievement of low-carbon energy transition. Finally, the strategic considerations and policy suggestions on the development of low-carbon energy systems in China are explored.展开更多
The accurate simulation of the equatorial sea surlhce temperature (SST) variability is crucial for a proper representation or prediction of the El Nino-Southern Os- cillation (ENSO). This paper describes the trop...The accurate simulation of the equatorial sea surlhce temperature (SST) variability is crucial for a proper representation or prediction of the El Nino-Southern Os- cillation (ENSO). This paper describes the tropical variability simulated by the Max Planck Institute (MPI) forr meteorology coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM). A control simulation with pre-industrial greenhouse gases is analyzed, and the simulation of key oceanic features, such as SST, is compared with observa- tions. Results from the 400-yr control simulation show that the model's ENSO variability is quite realistic in terms of structure, strength, and period. Also, two related features (the annual cycle of SST and the-phase locking of ENSO events), which are significant in determining the model's performance of realistic ENSO prediction, are further validated to be well reproduced by the MPI cli mate model, which is an atmospheric model ECHAM5 (which fuses the EC tbr European Center and HAM for Hamburg) coupled to an MPI ocean model (MPI-OM), ECHAMS/MPI-OM.展开更多
Hydropower development in Xizang(Tibet) Autonomous Region plays a vital role in co-control of local air pollutants and greenhouse gas(GHG) in China. According to emission factors of local air pollutants and GHG of coa...Hydropower development in Xizang(Tibet) Autonomous Region plays a vital role in co-control of local air pollutants and greenhouse gas(GHG) in China. According to emission factors of local air pollutants and GHG of coal-fired power industry in different hydropower service regions, we estimate the effect and synergy of local air pollutants and GHG reduction achieved by hydropower development in Tibet, examine the main factors constraining the effect and synergy, using correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis. The results show that: 1) During the period from 2006 to 2012, the effect of local air pollutants and GHG reduction achieved by hydropower development in Tibet decreased as a whole, while the synergy increased first and decreased afterwards. 2) The effect and synergy of local air pollutants and GHG reduction achieved by hydropower development in Tibet vary significantly across different hydropower service regions. The effect based on emission levels of Central China power grid(CCPG) and Northwest China power grid(NCPG) was more significant than that based on emission level of national power grid(NPG) from 2006 to 2012, and the synergy based on emission levels of CCPG and NCPG was also more significant than that based on emission level of NPG from 2010 to 2012. 3) The main factors constraining the effect and synergy based on emission levels of NCPG and CCPG included SO2 removal rate and NOx removal rate, the effect and synergy based on emission level of NPG was mainly influenced by net coal consumption rate. 4) Transferring hydropower from Tibet to NCPG and CCPG, and substituting local coal-fired power with hydropower can greatly help to co-control local air pollutants and GHG, transform the emission reduction pattern of the power industry and optimize energy structure.展开更多
Frequent occurrences of extreme heat are causing severe ozone pollution over China.This study examined the driving factors of urban ozone pollution in China during the extremely hot summer of 2022 and the impact of em...Frequent occurrences of extreme heat are causing severe ozone pollution over China.This study examined the driving factors of urban ozone pollution in China during the extremely hot summer of 2022 and the impact of emission control strategies using surface measurements and the GEOS-Chem model.The results show that ozone pollution was extremely severe in summer 2022,with a significant rebound by 12-15 ppbv in the North China Plain(NCP),Yangtze River Delta(YRD),and Sichuan basin(SCB),compared to 2021.Especially over the NCP,the MDA8(maximum daily 8-hourly average)ozone exceeded 160 ppbv,and the number of ozone exceedances was over 42 days.Based on an IPR(integrated process rate)analysis,the authors found that the net chemical production was the dominant factor contributing to the strong ozone increase in summer 2022.For example,in June over the NCP,the net chemical production resulted in an increase by 3.08 Gg d^(−1)(∼270%)in ozone mass change.Sensitivity simulations showed that both NO_(x)(nitrogen oxides)and VOC(volatile organic compound)reductions were important over the NCP,and NO_(x)reductions were more important than VOCs over southern China.To keep the ozone of 2022 at the same level as 2021,a joint reduction of NO_(x)and VOCs by at least 50%-60%would have been required.This study highlights the urgency to develop effective ozone management since extreme heat will become more frequent.展开更多
文摘In recent years, there have been considerable developments in energy provision with the growing improvements in energy supply security and support systems in China. However, China's energy system continues to retain a high-carbon feature where coal dominates energy production and consumption, which has led to the rapid growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated serious environmental pollution. It has therefore become an important task for China to consider how to promote the low-carbon development of energy system. This paper summarized the basic trends and challenges for development of low-carbon energy system in China and studied the primary energy consumption and carbon emissions in different scenarios at 10-year intervals between 2010 and 2050. The analysis showed that controlling coal consumption will have an important influence on the control of total carbon emissions and of carbon emission peaking; promotion of non-fossil fuel energies will offer a growing contribution to a low-carbon transition in the medium and long term; the development of carbon capture, utilization, and storage will play a key role in realizing a deep decarbonization pathway, particularly after 2030; and the establishment of a low-carbon power system is crucial for the achievement of low-carbon energy transition. Finally, the strategic considerations and policy suggestions on the development of low-carbon energy systems in China are explored.
基金supported by the National Program for Support of Top-notch Young Professionals, the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2012CB955202 and 2012CB417404)"Western Pacific Ocean System: Structure, Dynamics, and Consequences" of the Chinese Academy Sciences (WPOS+1 种基金 Grant No. XDA10010405)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41176014)
文摘The accurate simulation of the equatorial sea surlhce temperature (SST) variability is crucial for a proper representation or prediction of the El Nino-Southern Os- cillation (ENSO). This paper describes the tropical variability simulated by the Max Planck Institute (MPI) forr meteorology coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM). A control simulation with pre-industrial greenhouse gases is analyzed, and the simulation of key oceanic features, such as SST, is compared with observa- tions. Results from the 400-yr control simulation show that the model's ENSO variability is quite realistic in terms of structure, strength, and period. Also, two related features (the annual cycle of SST and the-phase locking of ENSO events), which are significant in determining the model's performance of realistic ENSO prediction, are further validated to be well reproduced by the MPI cli mate model, which is an atmospheric model ECHAM5 (which fuses the EC tbr European Center and HAM for Hamburg) coupled to an MPI ocean model (MPI-OM), ECHAMS/MPI-OM.
基金Under the auspices of State Environmental Protection Commonweal Special Program of China(No.201209032)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71503118)Basic Research Foundation of National Commonweal Research Institute(No.2013012)
文摘Hydropower development in Xizang(Tibet) Autonomous Region plays a vital role in co-control of local air pollutants and greenhouse gas(GHG) in China. According to emission factors of local air pollutants and GHG of coal-fired power industry in different hydropower service regions, we estimate the effect and synergy of local air pollutants and GHG reduction achieved by hydropower development in Tibet, examine the main factors constraining the effect and synergy, using correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis. The results show that: 1) During the period from 2006 to 2012, the effect of local air pollutants and GHG reduction achieved by hydropower development in Tibet decreased as a whole, while the synergy increased first and decreased afterwards. 2) The effect and synergy of local air pollutants and GHG reduction achieved by hydropower development in Tibet vary significantly across different hydropower service regions. The effect based on emission levels of Central China power grid(CCPG) and Northwest China power grid(NCPG) was more significant than that based on emission level of national power grid(NPG) from 2006 to 2012, and the synergy based on emission levels of CCPG and NCPG was also more significant than that based on emission level of NPG from 2010 to 2012. 3) The main factors constraining the effect and synergy based on emission levels of NCPG and CCPG included SO2 removal rate and NOx removal rate, the effect and synergy based on emission level of NPG was mainly influenced by net coal consumption rate. 4) Transferring hydropower from Tibet to NCPG and CCPG, and substituting local coal-fired power with hydropower can greatly help to co-control local air pollutants and GHG, transform the emission reduction pattern of the power industry and optimize energy structure.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China[grant number 2022YFE0136100]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 42205114].
文摘Frequent occurrences of extreme heat are causing severe ozone pollution over China.This study examined the driving factors of urban ozone pollution in China during the extremely hot summer of 2022 and the impact of emission control strategies using surface measurements and the GEOS-Chem model.The results show that ozone pollution was extremely severe in summer 2022,with a significant rebound by 12-15 ppbv in the North China Plain(NCP),Yangtze River Delta(YRD),and Sichuan basin(SCB),compared to 2021.Especially over the NCP,the MDA8(maximum daily 8-hourly average)ozone exceeded 160 ppbv,and the number of ozone exceedances was over 42 days.Based on an IPR(integrated process rate)analysis,the authors found that the net chemical production was the dominant factor contributing to the strong ozone increase in summer 2022.For example,in June over the NCP,the net chemical production resulted in an increase by 3.08 Gg d^(−1)(∼270%)in ozone mass change.Sensitivity simulations showed that both NO_(x)(nitrogen oxides)and VOC(volatile organic compound)reductions were important over the NCP,and NO_(x)reductions were more important than VOCs over southern China.To keep the ozone of 2022 at the same level as 2021,a joint reduction of NO_(x)and VOCs by at least 50%-60%would have been required.This study highlights the urgency to develop effective ozone management since extreme heat will become more frequent.