运输量预测的递进综合推定法

本文根据运输量在一定的社会经济与交通发展政策下才具有规律性的基本特点，提出了一种综合利用各种可能和有用信息的系统预测方法——递进综合推定法，并给出预测模型、预测过程、有关参数的确定方法及应用示例。提出的预测方法在社会经济等复杂系统中有广泛用途。

数值推定法与区间推定法在混凝土抗压强度标准值推定上的对比分析

文章针对目前建筑工程检测行业常用的两种实体混凝土结构或构件抗压强度标准值的推定方法,从基本统计学原理、推定过程以及如何对推定值进行评定等方面进行对比分析,并指出两种方法存在的问题。最后通过一工程实例进行验证比较并得出结论。

应用即时推定法检测混凝土质量的实验研究

即时推定法即促凝压蒸法,是现今混凝土快速测定强度的方法之一;具有设备简单,造价低,可靠性好、精度高的特点。文章介绍即时推定法机理及利用利用最小二乘法推出～的回归线性关系式的方法及应用。

云南东川“牛奶河”污染事件中环境侵权因果关系的认定

我国针对环境侵权致人损害责任中的因果关系规定了举证责任倒置规则,实质上采纳了与"间接反证说"相似的因果关系推定法。根据环境侵权因果关系"间接反证说"理论,采用日本学界所提出的好美、竹下说和淡路说两种学说,即可判断云南东川"牛奶河"污染事件中环境侵权因果关系的成立。

我国城市更新过程中的居住空间发展——以改革开放以来南京老城的城市更新为例

本文在城市更新理论研究的基础上,以改革开放之后的南京市老城区为例,通过实证量化研究和数字分析方法来探讨居住空间发展对于城市更新过程的影响和作用。

合并报表暂行规定探析

合并会计报表的编制是困扰会计实务的一大难题,出现这一问题固然与合并会计报表编制的难度有关,更与财政部颁布的《合并报表暂行规定》中有关规定存在着一定程度的不完善性有关。该文就合并报表编制中“控制”与合并范围、合并理论、内部交易抵消方法等三个重大问题的理论方法的创新进行了相关研究,以期对修订《合并报表暂行规定》或制定合并报表有积极的参考价值。

小水电站线损分摊初探

分析了小水电站特点,简述线损分摊存在的问题和困难,即目前尚无明确法律法规、水电站线损实测较难、理论计算往往不准、易引发廉政风险等。提出了解决小水电线损分摊的两种方法:实测推定法、理论线损法,为合理分摊小水电线损提供了参考依据。

社会主义管理工作的《二一三五办法》思路简介

基本观念的比喻 人类已有的各种制度,能做到既有公平又有效率的,是竞技体育.五环旗下,不分种族、国度和穷富,把一切参与者置于公平的竞争规则之下,使有潜力者可望得到最大的培养机会,有才能者可望得到最大的发挥机会.不仅如此,如今的竞技体育活动还最大限度地体现了以人为中心的价值和尊严.

东海塘泊船区土堤稳定施工断面的确定

东海塘泊船区土堤填筑工程在施工过程中发生多处地基失稳和滑坡现象,根据滑坡现场具体资料的分析、总结与归纳,用经验推定方法得出判断土堤稳定施工断面的指标,并经滑弧理论计算与实际情况对照验证,滑动梯度J是一个能基本反映现场多种影响土堤稳定因素与内在客观规律的指标,具有应用简单方便,对指导施工现场的施工控制具有实用价值。

鞠曦易学思想浅释

鞠曦先生的思想可以总结为＂承诺推定法＂—＂时空统—论＂—＂形而中论＂—＂中天损益＂—＂君子儒学＂等一个系列过程。以＂承诺推定法＂为方法论,以＂时空统一论＂及＂形而中论＂为本体论,以＂中天损益＂为功夫论,以＂君子儒学＂为价值论。其易学思想是以孔子之《说卦传》为纲领,运用＂承诺推定法＂,推论出＂中天损益＂之孔易的＂一以贯之＂之道,即＂穷理尽性以至于命＂。

Influence on the hydrodynamic performance of a variable vector propeller of different rules of pitch angle change

To design a more effective blade pitch adjustment mechanism,research was done on changes to the hydrodynamic characteristics of VVPs(Variable Vector Propeller) caused by different rules for changing pitch angle. A mathematical method for predicting the hydrodynamic characteristics of a VVP under unsteady conditions is presented based on the panel method. Mathematical models for evaluation based on potential flow theory and the Green theorem are also presented. The hydrodynamic characteristics are numerically predicted. To avoid gaps between panels,hyperboloidal quadrilateral panels were used. The pressure Kutta condition on the trailing edge of the VVP blade was satisfied by the Newton-Raphson iterative procedure. The influence coefficients of the panels were calculated by Morino's analytical formulations to improve numerical calculation speed,and the method developed by Yanagizawa was used to eliminate the point singularity on derivation calculus while determining the velocities on propeller surfaces. The calculation results show that it's best for the hydrodynamic characteristics of the VVP that pitch angle changes follow the sine rule.

Deduction Theorem and Hypothetical Syllogism Rule on Fuzzy Logic System

Cancelled the first axiom L1) or the third axiom L3) of the classical formal logic system we established two kinds of quasi-formal deductive system, LG-R^* and LG^* respectively. In LG-R^* we proved that neither the deduction theorem nor the hypothetical syllogism (HS) rule held but a deduction theorem and an HS rule are obtained in a weak sense. We also proved that both the deduction theorem and the hypothetical syllogism(HS) rule hold in LG^*.

Application of uncertainty reasoning based on cloud model in time series prediction

Time series prediction has been successfully used in several application areas, such as meteoro-logical forecasting, market prediction, network traffic forecasting, etc. , and a number of techniques have been developed for modeling and predicting time series. In the traditional exponential smoothing method, a fixed weight is assigned to data history, and the trend changes of time series are ignored. In this paper, an uncertainty reasoning method, based on cloud model, is employed in time series prediction, which uses cloud logic controller to adjust the smoothing coefficient of the simple exponential smoothing method dynamically to fit the current trend of the time series. The validity of this solution was proved by experiments on various data sets.

Signal Path Reckoning Localization Method in Multipath Environment

In the wireless localization application, multipath propagation seriously affects the localization accuracy. This paper presents two algorithms to solve the multipath problem. Firstly, we improve the Line of Possible Mobile Device(LPMD) algorithm by optimizing the utilization of the direct paths for single-bound scattering scenario. Secondly, the signal path reckoning method with the assistance of geographic information system is proposed to solve the problem of localization with multi-bound scattering paths. With the building model's idealization, the proposed method refers to the idea of ray tracing and dead reckoning. According to the rule of wireless signal reflection, the signal propagation path is reckoned using the measurements of emission angle and propagation distance, and then the estimated location can be obtained. Simulation shows that the proposed method obtains better results than the existing geometric localization methods in multipath environment when the angle error is controlled.

Developing a geographic Case-Based Reasoning approach

Case-Based Reasoning （CBR） is an AI approach and been applied to many areas. However, one area - geography - has not been investigated systematically and thus has been identified as the focus for this study. This paper intends to further extend current CBR to a geographic CBR （Geo-CBR）. First, the concept of Geo-CBR is proposed. Second, a representation model for geographic cases has been established based on the Tesseral model and on a further extension in spatio-temporal dimensions for geographic cases. Third, a reasoning model for Geo-CBR is developed by considering the spatio-temporat characteristics and the uncertain and limited information of geographic cases. Finally, the Geo-CBR model is applied to forecasting the production of ocean fisheries to demonstrate the applicability of the developed Geo-CBR in solving problems in the real world. According to the experimental results, Geo-CBR is an effective and easy-to-implement approach for predicting geographic cases quantitatively.

Numerical Determination of Induced Electric Eddy Fields Inside Arbitrarily Shaped Induction Coils

We propose a numerical solution of Faraday＇s law of induction based on the knowledge of the time-varying, non-uniform vector potential inside arbitrarily shaped electrical coils. The vector potential can be related to the magnetic induction which yields the well-known form of Faraday＇s law. The algorithm applies for non-retarding fields within the quasi-stationary regime. The model is intended to help to understand the behavior of electromagnetic fields inside the discharge chambers of radio-frequency ion thrusters. This provides a basis for modeling an inductively-coupled plasma which is kept burning by absorbing electromagnetic energy. In the long run, this plasma model will be used to support development processes of electric and electronic control devices which are needed for driving radio-frequency ion thrusters more efficiently. To predict the induced radio frequency fields more precisely, the skin effect along the coil wire is modeled. Furthermore, an impedance model of the coil, which incorporates the skin effect, is introduced. The simulated data are compared to measured values obtained by a generic electric field probe. Although the probe was uncalibrated, the observed values were highly similar to the expected values as determined by the numerical solution.

Orbit determination and thrust force modeling for a maneuvered GEO satellite using two-way adaptive Kalman filtering

A two-way adaptive Kalman filter is proposed by combining a two-way filter with an adaptive filter for orbit determination of a maneuvered GEO satellite.A method of using Newton's high-resolution differential formula and polynomial fitting for modeling the thrust force of a maneuvered GEO satellite is developed.The adaptive factor,which balances the contributions of the measurements and the dynamic model information,is determined by using a two-segment function and predicted residual statistics.Simulations with a maneuvered GEO satellite tracked by the Chinese ground tracking network were conducted to verify the performance of the proposed orbit determination technique and the method of thrust force modeling.The results show that refining the thrust force model is beneficial for the orbit determination of a maneuvered GEO satellite;the two-way adaptive Kalman filter can efficiently control the influence of the dynamic model errors on the orbit state estimate.

Auxiliary Lagrangian and Conservation Laws for a Wave Equation Incorporating Dissipation

In this work we study the Lagrangian and the conservation laws for a wave equation with a dissipative source. Using semi-inverse method, we show that the equation possesses a nonlocal Lagrangian with an auxiliary function.As a result, from a modified Noether's theorem and the nonclassical Noether symmetry generators, we construct some conservation laws for this equation, which are different from the ones obtained by Ibragimov's theorem in [Y. Wang and L. Wei, Abstr. App. Anal. 2013(2013) 407908]. The results show that our method work for arbitrary functions f(u)and g(u) rather than special ones.