The paper aims to investigate the current account imbalances in the context of an overview of macroeconomic fundamentals after the liberalization process in Turkey. Two main questions discussed here are： （1） What i...The paper aims to investigate the current account imbalances in the context of an overview of macroeconomic fundamentals after the liberalization process in Turkey. Two main questions discussed here are： （1） What is the link between liberalization and current account imbalances; （2） What kind of mechanisms ensured this link to become a vicious circle. The period after 1989, Turkey was characterized by significant fluctuations in macroeconomic activity by the implementation of liberalization policies. Once financial liberalization is adopted, Turkey faced with a new challenge： large current account deficits. On the other hand, foreign capital inflows aggravated a lending boom. Because of excessive risk taken by banks, interest rates began to rise. As mentioned above, the paper studies Turkey＇s liberalization process with a number of indicators that point to a fragility of the external balance： unhealthy structure of financial sector, particularly banking sector, large fiscal imbalances, low savings and investment rates, unstable GDP growth. Domestic structural features combining with macroeconomic policy stance and political factors are examined as well展开更多
It is generally accepted that governments favor expansive fiscal policies to address an economic scenario in which supply exceeds demand. In other words, economic imbalance is regarded as the cause of the problem and ...It is generally accepted that governments favor expansive fiscal policies to address an economic scenario in which supply exceeds demand. In other words, economic imbalance is regarded as the cause of the problem and fiscal expansion as the result. However, this paper posits that China＇s expansive fiscal policies may also be a major cause of its economic imbalance, and that fiscal expansion and economic imbalance create cumulative causation. Specifically, China＇s tax system, characterized by a regressive commodity tax, intensifies constraints on domestic consumption while distributing a large proportion of national income to government and enterprises; supply-demand imbalance prompts the government to expand fiscal expenditures and increase taxes, which further exacerbates this imbalance. Thus, even as the country faces a macroeconomic imbalance, the strong measures it adopts in response may stimulate economic growth in the short term, but in the long term, they may do exactly the opposite and create the next economic crisis.展开更多
文摘The paper aims to investigate the current account imbalances in the context of an overview of macroeconomic fundamentals after the liberalization process in Turkey. Two main questions discussed here are： （1） What is the link between liberalization and current account imbalances; （2） What kind of mechanisms ensured this link to become a vicious circle. The period after 1989, Turkey was characterized by significant fluctuations in macroeconomic activity by the implementation of liberalization policies. Once financial liberalization is adopted, Turkey faced with a new challenge： large current account deficits. On the other hand, foreign capital inflows aggravated a lending boom. Because of excessive risk taken by banks, interest rates began to rise. As mentioned above, the paper studies Turkey＇s liberalization process with a number of indicators that point to a fragility of the external balance： unhealthy structure of financial sector, particularly banking sector, large fiscal imbalances, low savings and investment rates, unstable GDP growth. Domestic structural features combining with macroeconomic policy stance and political factors are examined as well
文摘It is generally accepted that governments favor expansive fiscal policies to address an economic scenario in which supply exceeds demand. In other words, economic imbalance is regarded as the cause of the problem and fiscal expansion as the result. However, this paper posits that China＇s expansive fiscal policies may also be a major cause of its economic imbalance, and that fiscal expansion and economic imbalance create cumulative causation. Specifically, China＇s tax system, characterized by a regressive commodity tax, intensifies constraints on domestic consumption while distributing a large proportion of national income to government and enterprises; supply-demand imbalance prompts the government to expand fiscal expenditures and increase taxes, which further exacerbates this imbalance. Thus, even as the country faces a macroeconomic imbalance, the strong measures it adopts in response may stimulate economic growth in the short term, but in the long term, they may do exactly the opposite and create the next economic crisis.
