“政策结”问题:政策科学值得关注的新命题——基于我国政府应对国际金融危机的政策实践

传统的政策条件假设是一种"两难困境",而新的政策实践不断证实:政府政策的核心领域———宏观调控,往往是多重困境和多个两难选择交织而成的"政策结"。本研究通过对我国政府应对国际金融危机逆境中的政策制定,处理面临的一些长期累积的多重矛盾交织的"政策结"问题实践,提出中国特色的"政策结"及其结构要素,指出政策科学的特殊意义。

Structural Fiscal Regulation and Choice of Instruments in the New Normal

Based on the overall consideration of individual behaviors of Ricardian and non-Ricardian households, this paper develops a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE) model to form a relatively systematic research framework for analyzing the economic effects of structural fiscal instruments. Our study findsthat great differences exist in the macroeconomic effects of different fiscal instruments, suggesting that the government should prudently select these fiscal instruments in fiscal macro-control. The simulating results of fiscal shocks show that the effect of tax cut is superior to the effect of increased spending. In the context of slowing economic growth and less potent stimulation policy, the government should transform its previous regulatory approach of fiscal policy and shift from hefty spending stimulus policy to structural tax cuts. This paper believes that China should step up the implementation of public-private partnership, increase its spending on social security, healthcare, pension and public services and facilitate the transition toward a service-based government; and that tax policy should focus on structural tax cuts on consumption to promote the transition of demand structure toward consumption-driven.

THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE PEARL RIVER DELTA IN NEW TERM

Since China opening to outside world,the economy in the Pearl(Zhujiang)River Delta(PRD)has been dou-ble digit growth.It has been known as one of mature fast growth areas in the world and become the model and hope of Chi-nese reformand opening to outside wo rld.The regional development in PRD is the outcome of polarization effects .The polar-ization effects actually are extension of international regional divis ion and a combination of Hongkong’s i nfluence and re-form and open-door policies on the ma inland.Since the 1990s,driven by knowledge-based economy,the PRD has f urther adjusted the industrial structure a nd achieved good progress in upgradi ng industrial structure.Its high te chnology industry has developed quickly and the econom ic internationalization has deepen ed,meanwhile,the region is going th rough transforma-tion and some new trends have begun to appear,which include:university t owns springing up,industrial globalization and the construction of Hi-tech develop ment zones.The paper suggests that w ith the economic growth changing fro m relying on the low level production elements to relying on high level production ele ments,the regional policies in Guan gdong Province should develop correspondingly:1)make a plan to prohibite the blind con struction in innovative spatial con struc-tions;2)make measures to attract the overseas talents to establish a pool of talen t;3)work out the favorable policies for absorbing larger capital;4)formulate the policy of attracting a cluster of industries to speed up the upgrade of industrial development.

European Sovereign Debt Crisis's Influence and Enlightenment on China

对中国的欧洲主权债务危机从形成到逐步影响中国的各个方面进行详尽分析和探讨,包括对汇率、对外贸易、金融政策等的影响,指出应以欧洲主权债务危机为戒,改进中国地方政府债务的监管体制。

试论人民币汇率升值理论及相应对策

近几年,国际上相继提出要求人民币汇率升值的主张。这一主张主要依据人民币汇率低估的判断。本文主要分析"人民币升值论"的理论依据"中国输出通货紧缩论"并予以反驳,分析人民币升值的利弊,并指出人民币现在升值弊大于利。同时分析了人民币升值压力的成因及对我国经济的影响,并对保持人民币汇率基本稳定提出了相应的措施建议。

Composition and structure of species along altitude gradient in Moghan-Sabalan rangelands,Iran

This study provides a checklist of species distributed at the altitude gradient of MoghanSabalan rangelands in Ardabili province, Northwest Iran. We evaluated the changes in species composition, growth types of species, Raunkiaer's life forms, geographical distribution, threat and endemicity status, and palatability of species along two altitudinal gradients in the sampling plots, which were conducted in eleven sites/habitats with 300 meters above sea level(masl) altitude intervals(from 100 to 3300 masl). We assessed the plant species composition with special reference to the gradient analysis, and identified overall 396 species, which was comprising 44 families and 194 genera. Results showed that Asteraceae family is by far the most species-rich family, followed by Poaceae, Fabaceae, Caryophyllaceae and Brassicaceae. Among the genera, Astragalus is the most diverse genus, followed by Allium, Veronica and Bromus, Galium, Silene and Ranunculus. Results indicated that the number of species increased as the altitude increased to 1200-1500 masl, but then starts to decline to 3300 masl. Family-to-genera ratio was 1:4.4, the family-tospecies ratio was 1:9, and the genera-to-species ratio was 1:2.04. Growth type of species analysis shows that the frequency of perennial plants was higher in the study area followed by annual species while the lower group was biennial species. The number of annuals showed a decreasing trend towards higher altitude. Hemicryptophytes and therophytes were the most frequent life forms constituted each with(41.9%). Hemicryptophytes showed an increasing trend with altitude, while therophytes showed a decreasing trend with altitude increase, followed by geophytes, chamaephytes, and phanerophytes. Results showed more than half of the species of the study area belonged to Iran-Turanian region and these species showed an increasing trend with altitude. In contrast, Sahara-Sindian species comprise a minor component of the spectrum, with decreasing trend with altitude. The rare and endangered species out of the surveyed taxonomic groups comprised 53 species in total which 29 of them are considered lower risk(LR), 13 data deficient(DD), 5 vulnerable(Vu) and with 3 rare(R) and identified endemic plants comprised 24 species. Some 56.6% species were identified as class III, 22.6% were class I and 20.8% were class II as the palatability variation. Moghan-Sabalan rangelands require strong conservation management policies in case of species loss and changing natural communities due to the occurrence of conversion into cropland, over-grazing and other anthropogenic effects.

Nonlinear elastic-perfect plastic constitutive model of soil-structure interface under high stress

Briefly introduced the simple shear apparatus under high stress that was developed from RMT. A series simple shear tests under high stress show that the relationcurve between shear stress and tangential displacement under high normal stress is different from the hyperbolic curve in direct shear tests, and the complete deformation process of interface under high stress can be described as nonlinear elastic-perfect plastic(NEPP). According to some characteristics of the fitting curve, the deficiency of theNEPP was pointed out. The mathematic 'half value index' was used to illustrate thatWeibull distribution with three parameters (WNEPP) can overcome the mathematical deficiencies of the NEPP. The advantage of the WNEPP is that the fitting curve of WNEPPmore accurately coincided with the testing data was testified by further comparison.

China's Mini-Stimulus Policy:Effects and Defects

China＇s mini-stimulus policy is justi^ed for some proven effects on economic stabilization. However, the policy should not be used on regular, long-term base. Mini- stimulus economic policy is still essentially investment-driven and by nature no different from the four trillion yuan stimulus package introduced in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008. The policy strength of mini-stimulus packages the Chinese government resorted to has already accumulated to ascend to quite an extent. Further, ministimulus policy cannot stabilize growth and promote economic restructuring simultaneously. In fact, its effects on restructuring are short-term and may even be negative. Additionally, the diminishing potency of China＇s mini-stimulus policy efforts may force the government to resort to another hefty stimulus package with severe side effects. In the final analysis, it is social policy not economic stimuli that will help the Chinese economy achieve a soft landing.

Changes of Mobile Internet Ecosystem Structure and Suggestions for Regulatory Policy

The mobile Intemet industry has exp- erienced dramatic changes as plenty of new applications and business models emerged. This study conducts a qualitative review on the changes through adopting business ecosystem approaches. An analytical framework is estab- lished for reviewing the structure of mobile Internet business ecosystem. Then the core value, key actors, and inter-firm relationships of the mobile Internet ecosystem in the past and in the present are compared. It is found that the ecosystem structure has shifted from an MNO-centric model to a polycentric one with highly expanded value sources and di- versified keystone players. Accordingly some suggestions for regulatory policy makers are provided in terms of the roles of mobile Inter- net in social welfare improvement, the call for a convergent regulatory system, and chal- lenges for information security regulation.

Rethinking China's Macroeconomic Policy

Six years have passed since the global financial crisis began.Yet,mainstream economists are still far from reaching a consensus on a framework for restructuring macroeconomic policy.In April 2013,many top scholars attended the International Monetary Fund's(IMF) second conference on "Rethinking Macro Policy".During the conference,the following basic assessments with respect to macroeconomic policy were reached:economists and policy-makers have entered a "brave new world" where they face more problems than effective solutions and the image of a new macroeconomic policy framework remains opaque.Based on discussions at the conference and the dissertations of important scholars over recent years,this paper provides a systematic review of the reflections of mainstream economic academia regarding the restructuring of a macroeconomic policy framework,with a view to providing an orientation to China s ongoing reform of macroeconomic regulation.

China's Agricultural Development: Structural Contradictions and Policy Transition

The primary contradiction facing China's agricultural development has shifted from the previous undersupply to structural contradictions. This paper dissects these structural contradictions in terms of sectoral structure, product structure, organizational structure, technical structure, trade structure and spatial structure. Since reform and opening-up in 1978, China has followed a growth-oriented agricultural policy to ensure steady yield increase. Indeed, this policy has effectively increased the output of agricultural produce, safeguarded national food security, and enhanced agricultural production capabilities. However, China's agriculture is yet to become internationally competitive, increase efficiency and farmers' income, and improve the quality and safety of agricultural produce. As China's agricultural development enters into a new stage of comprehensive transition and upgrade, it is essential for China's agricultural policy to shift from the progrowth policy characterized by the dependence on chemical fertilizers and pesticides to an efficiency and quality-oriented policy that pursues green agriculture.

Work Organization Model Applied on Smallholder Dairy Farms in Brazil

This research identified difficulties faced by dairy farmers in family farming, describing this diagnosis through ergonomic demand items （EDIs）. The objective was to elaborate an organization model of work related to dairy farming （WRDF）. As a methodology, a descriptive exploratory study was carried out in 14 family dairy farms that were visited and had their activities monitored. As main results, 11 EDIs were identified. The ones grouped in the infrastructure factor showed the highest resolution priority. The WRDF model was composed of three categories： management, public policies management and infrastructure, which were further subdivided into technical and social aspects. From this perspective, it is believed that the implementation of the model can bring organizational improvement, once adjustments are made in the procedures and working conditions. This study sheds light on the conditions that need to be resolved with higher priority so that the farmers will remain in the dairy business.

Spatial distribution of employment opportunities in the city of Santa Cruz de Tenerife

The analysis of spatial mismatches in access to employment remains a very important area of labour market literature. A particular case is that of the mismatches in urban labor markets, which can result in substantial differences in the employment opportunities available in city centre and suburbs. This study examines the spatial mismatches present in the labour market of Santa Cruz de Tenerife. To that end, the results of a survey taken in 2003-2004 with a sample of 2000 city residents were reviewed. Results confirm the importance of transport policy for city residents; they suggest that public transport linking the different districts to the city centre should be reviewed.

The Relationship between Financial Development and Industrial Restructuring --Based on Panel Data of 17 Areas of Shandong

Based on the Panel Data of Shan dong Province of 17 regions, by estimating varying coefficient models, studies the relationship between financial development and industrial structure.The results show that, on the whole, the financial development indicators-the scale and the efficiency can effectively promote industrial restructuring in all regions of Shandong province, but its role has obvious differences in different regions, so it can provide a basis for economic decision-making and financial policy advice.

Constraints of Municipal Solid Waste Management： A Case Study of Mbarara Municipality

Despite the presence of bye-laws, solid waste management continues to be an issue in Mbarara municipality with households and businesses continuing to dump solid waste on open plots, low-lying areas, public spaces and rivers, or simply burning it in their backyards. This qualitative study aimed at establishing reasons as to why there was still improper solid waste management in Mbarara municipality and also establishing its constraints. Tools used included semi-structured questionnaires, observation and photographs. Two hundred and ninety-four participants （24 solid waste collectors, eight municipal council members and 262 community members） participated in the study. The study revealed both insufficient budget （87.5%） and insufficient equipment （50%） as the most common policy challenges in implementing proper solid waste management. Solid waste collectors not being comfortable with their salaries （79.2%）, limited sensitization regarding solid waste management （66%） and limited necessary tools （58.3%） as other challenges faced by solid waste management policy makers and implementers and finally, community members having limited awareness about laws governing solid waste management （61.1%）. In conclusion, insufficient budget, insufficient equipment, poor motivation and inadequate sensitization were found to be the major reasons as to why there was still improper solid waste management in Mbarara municipality, western Uganda.

Basic Structures and Political Implications of a Sustainable Welfare Model

A synopsis of political welfare concepts, which are currently discussed under labels such as ＂green growth＂, ＂zero growth＂ and ＂degrowth＂, has identified fundamental shortcomings concerning the informational bases of the complex links between ecological, social and economic systems, which were taken into account in the creation of the concept. In the development of a concept for political action, a rationally acting environmental policy cannot neglect reflecting on which economic, ecological and social contexts have to be taken into account and on which normative statements its decisions should be grounded. The proposed sustainable welfare model consists of a positive impact and a normative decision model. The positive model provides a description of the ＂world＂ with which the effects of the various options for action on the environmental, social and the economic systems can be assessed. The normative model is a tool for selecting and assessing the options for action in pursuing the desired goal of sustainable welfare development. Principally the key environmental goals are prearranged to socio-economic goals. The model at hand provides the reference points for the development of a sustainable welfare concept, which can be used as a political action plan in the context of environmental policy.

A Probe into China's Near Term Finished Petroleum Products Market

This article described the changes in consumption of finished petroleum products in China since 2008, referring to the international economic environment that has reversed the consumption of finished oil products, and China＇s domestic economic situation and oil pricing policy and major factors related with changes in industrial sectors. This article, by making projections on future market trends, has estimated that in the foreseeable future the domestic finished oil products market will be glutted with oil products that will exceed the demand.

The Policy Evaluating Research on Strategic Emerging Industry in Shanghai

Strategic emerging industry is the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and transformation of economic development. And it＇ s also the key to enhance China＇s independent innovation capability and international competitiveness. Whether it is from the industrial development of the law or its own development experience of emerging industries, the development of new industries are heavily influenced by national policy, national policy to some extent can be seen as strategic emerging industry development the decisive factor. The article evaluates the effects that the policies to what extent promotes the development of strategic emerging industry in Shanghai.

China＇s Industries in the Beginning of Its 12th Five-Year Plan Period

Complex international and domestic economic scenarios and the short cyclical nature of macroeconomic policies characterizes the beginning year of the 12th Five- Year Plan period, it reflects the difficult policy choices that arise among three major regulatory targets ,for growth, structure, and prices. In the transitional period of intertwined challenges, a spirit of commitment and dedication to real industries will allow China to occupy vantage points in world manufacturing and become an industrial power in the real sense. To a certain extent the beginning year of the 12th Five-Year Plan period （2011-2015）, while.fraught with challenges and pain, marks a departure from cutthroat competition to quality growth for Chinese enterprises and entrepreneurs. From 2012, China＇s industrial and market economic systems will both head towards more sophisticated stages of development. China ＂s industries will develop along environmentally sustainable, delicate, high-end, IT-based and service-oriented paths, while expediting the country＇s economic restructuring, industrial upgrade capabilities and its pursuit of innovative industrialization, and it will do so with strides more remarkable than ever before in its history.