基于事故记录的船撞桥故障树建立

根据历史记录,建立了船撞桥事故数据库,提出了创建船撞桥故障树的方法和原则,构造了船撞桥墩故障树结构图.其结果为寻找可能导致事故发生的原因及其逻辑关系提供帮助,并为风险分析提供参考.

城市给水管网可靠性的故障树分析

对引起管网失效的各因素进行了分析,建立了给水管网失效的故障树,在此基础上,对故障树进行了定性和定量分析。

供应链环境下延迟策略的风险问题研究

阐述了延迟制造风险因素对于整个供应链绩效的重要性,对可能引起延迟制造风险的成因和分类进行研究;讨论了如何对供应链的风险进行识别,以及对单个风险的性质、发生概率及其后果大小进行估计;最后,利用风险故障树结构,对于延迟制造风险水平的整体评价方法和步骤进行了分析。

Fuzzy Risk Assessment Model of Power Transformer Based on Borda Number Theory

The power transformer is the key equipment of transforming voltage and exchanging power in the power system.It's safe and reliable operation directly influences the safe level of the power system.To study the risk assessment of power transformer which is very significant to improve the reliability of the power system,a fuzzy comprehensive risk assessment model of power transformer based on Borda number theory is proposed in this paper.At first,the fault types and risk factors of the power transformer are analyzed.Secondly,the basic framework of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is applied to quantify the risk factors.And then,Borda number theory is employed to analyze influence degree and occurrence probability of power transformer.At last,the various risk factors impact index and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation index of power transformer can be easily obtained.Applying this model,the relative importance degree of the risk factors can be horizontally compared according to the numerical index,the engineering staff can directly get the parameters of the transformer risk level and get a good description of the visual expression through using 5 score and similar visual language.

旋翼系统可靠性计算与分析

根据现场数据,着手计算和分析了某型号直升机旋翼系统的可靠性性能。在整理现场数据得到的随机截尾数据的基础上,采用极大似然估计法估计了该混合型数据的威布尔分布参数。运用故障树分析方法建立和分析了旋翼系统的故障树结构。最后,对旋翼系统的可靠性结果进行了分析。