关于最优国际储备理论与测度的探讨,"二战"后经历了"比率分析模型"、"成本效益分析模型"、"缓冲存货模型"、"Ben-Bassat and Gottlieb最优化模型"、"基于效用最大化的模型"...关于最优国际储备理论与测度的探讨,"二战"后经历了"比率分析模型"、"成本效益分析模型"、"缓冲存货模型"、"Ben-Bassat and Gottlieb最优化模型"、"基于效用最大化的模型"等阶段。深入剖析其发展脉络,可以明确,一国持有国际储备的最主要目的,是应对一国宏观经济所可能受到的异常冲击,因而一国不但应持有正常的国际储备,还应保有能应对超出这一正常需要的额外储备;而一国持有国际储备总量的最优水平,则应综合考虑持有这些国际储备的福利和为此所需付出的机会成本。中国国际储备问题的研究,应考虑到国际储备的各种枯竭可能性,改善对宏观经济危机或动荡的发生概率的估计,并加强对宏观经济危机后果的测定。因此,若能发展出适合于我国国情,既具理论根据又简单易懂易操作,并且能考虑到内源和外源经济冲击的比率,如适当的国际储备对GDP的比率、国际储备对进口的比率和国际储备对货币供应量的比率,将是合意的。展开更多
The technology investment strategy under uncertainty is the key subject. However, the expected utility maximization often employed as the decision process fails to consider the high risk with low probability cases. On...The technology investment strategy under uncertainty is the key subject. However, the expected utility maximization often employed as the decision process fails to consider the high risk with low probability cases. On the other hand, the existing min-max regret strategy tends to be dominated by the ＂worst assumption＂ regardless of its probability. This research proposes a new framework by formulating the regret by the Minkowski＇s generalized distance. The authors then apply the formulation to the IAM （integrated assessment model） MARIA. This study focuses on the uncertainties of CCS （carbon capture and storage） costs and the global warming damages. This formulation is then extended to the multi-stage decision frame, known as ATL （act-then-learn） method. The simulation results suggest that the substantial changes in CCS and nuclear deployment strategies depending on the future uncertainty scenarios. The results also suggest that the minimum regret strategy favors the capital accumulation in the early stage.展开更多
文摘关于最优国际储备理论与测度的探讨,"二战"后经历了"比率分析模型"、"成本效益分析模型"、"缓冲存货模型"、"Ben-Bassat and Gottlieb最优化模型"、"基于效用最大化的模型"等阶段。深入剖析其发展脉络,可以明确,一国持有国际储备的最主要目的,是应对一国宏观经济所可能受到的异常冲击,因而一国不但应持有正常的国际储备,还应保有能应对超出这一正常需要的额外储备;而一国持有国际储备总量的最优水平,则应综合考虑持有这些国际储备的福利和为此所需付出的机会成本。中国国际储备问题的研究,应考虑到国际储备的各种枯竭可能性,改善对宏观经济危机或动荡的发生概率的估计,并加强对宏观经济危机后果的测定。因此,若能发展出适合于我国国情,既具理论根据又简单易懂易操作,并且能考虑到内源和外源经济冲击的比率,如适当的国际储备对GDP的比率、国际储备对进口的比率和国际储备对货币供应量的比率,将是合意的。
文摘The technology investment strategy under uncertainty is the key subject. However, the expected utility maximization often employed as the decision process fails to consider the high risk with low probability cases. On the other hand, the existing min-max regret strategy tends to be dominated by the ＂worst assumption＂ regardless of its probability. This research proposes a new framework by formulating the regret by the Minkowski＇s generalized distance. The authors then apply the formulation to the IAM （integrated assessment model） MARIA. This study focuses on the uncertainties of CCS （carbon capture and storage） costs and the global warming damages. This formulation is then extended to the multi-stage decision frame, known as ATL （act-then-learn） method. The simulation results suggest that the substantial changes in CCS and nuclear deployment strategies depending on the future uncertainty scenarios. The results also suggest that the minimum regret strategy favors the capital accumulation in the early stage.
