复合材料船体纵向极限强度可靠性分析

把船体甲板或船底板结构视为是一系列加筋板单元的组合 ,然后利用复合材料梁柱理论计算船体加筋板单元构件的极限承载能力 ,最后用 Smith法计算复合材料船体的极限承载能力。由于复合材料船体纵向极限强度的极限状态方程不能简单地用船体各参数显式表达 ,故将近年发展起来的响应面法与 JC法相结合 ,对复合材料船体纵向极限强度进行了可靠性分析。

Application of support vector machine in trip chaining pattern recognition and analysis of explanatory variable effects

In order to improve the accuracy of travel demand forecast and considering the distribution of travel behaviors within time dimension, a trip chaining pattern recognition model was established based on activity purposes by applying three methods： the support vector machine （SVM） model, the radial basis function neural network （RBFNN） model and the multinomial logit （MNL） model. The effect of explanatory factors on trip chaining behaviors and their contribution to model performace were investigated by sensitivity analysis. Results show that the SVM model has a better performance than the RBFNN model and the MNL model due to its higher overall and partial accuracy, indicating its recognition advantage under a smai sample size scenario. It is also proved that the SVM model is capable of estimating the effect of multi-category factors on trip chaining behaviors more accurately. The different contribution of explanatory, factors to trip chaining pattern recognition reflects the importance of refining trip chaining patterns ad exploring factors that are specific to each pattern. It is shown that the SVM technology in travel demand forecast modeling and analysis of explanatory variable effects is practical.

Sensitivity analysis for stochastic user equilibrium with elastic demand assignment model

This paper puts forward a rigorous approach for a sensitivity analysis of stochastic user equilibrium with the elastic demand （SUEED） model. First, proof is given for the existence of derivatives of output variables with respect to the perturbation parameters for the SUEED model. Then by taking advantage of the gradient-based method for sensitivity analysis of a general nonlinear program, detailed formulae are developed for calculating the derivatives of designed variables with respect to perturbation parameters at the equilibrium state of the SUEED model. This method is not only applicable for a sensitivity analysis of the logit-type SUEED problem, but also for the probit-type SUEED problem. The application of the proposed method in a numerical example shows that the proposed method can be used to approximate the equilibrium link flow solutions for both logit-type SUEED and probit-type SUEED problems when small perturbations are introduced in the input parameters.

Brittleness index and seismic rock physics model for anisotropic tight-oil sandstone reservoirs

Brittleness analysis becomes important when looking for sweet spots in tightoil sandstone reservoirs. Hence, appropriate indices are required as accurate brittleness evaluation criteria. We construct a seismic rock physics model for tight-oil sandstone reservoirs with vertical fractures. Because of the complexities in lithology and pore structure and the anisotropic characteristics of tight-oil sandstone reservoirs, the proposed model is based on the solid components, pore connectivity, pore type, and fractures to better describe the sandstone reservoir microstructure. Using the model, we analyze the brittleness sensitivity of the elastic parameters in an anisotropic medium and establish a new brittleness index. We show the applicability of the proposed brittleness index for tight-oil sandstone reservoirs by considering the brittleness sensitivity, the rock physics response characteristics, and cross-plots. Compared with conventional brittleness indexes, the new brittleness index has high brittleness sensitivity and it is the highest in oil-bearing brittle zones with relatively high porosity. The results also suggest that the new brittleness index is much more sensitive to elastic properties variations, and thus can presumably better predict the brittleness characteristics of sweet spots in tight-oil sandstone reservoirs.

Sensitivity analysis of geomechanical parameters affecting a wellbore stability

Wellbore stability analysis is a growing concern in oil industries. There are many parameters affecting the stability of a wellbore including geomechanical properties (e.g., elastic modulus, uni-axial compressive strength (UCS) and cohesion) and acting forces (e.g., field stresses and mud pressure). Accurate determination of these parameters is time-consuming, expensive and sometimes even impossible. This work offers a systematic sensitivity analysis to quantify the amount of each parameter’s effect on the stability of a wellbore. Maximum wellbore wall displacement is used as a stability factor to study the stability of a wellbore. A 3D finite difference method with Mohr model is used for the numerical modeling. The numerical model is verified against an analytical solution. A dimensionless sensitivity factor is developed in order to compare the results of various parameters in the sensitivity analysis. The results show a different order of importance of parameters based on rock strength. The most sensitive properties for a weak rock are the maximum horizontal stress, internal friction angle and formation pressure, respectively, while for a strong rock, the most sensitive parameters are the maximum horizontal stress, mud pressure and pore pressure, respectively. The amount of error in wellbore stability analysis inflicted by the error in estimation of each parameter was also derived.

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Regional Marine Ecosystem Services Value

Marine ecosystem services are the benefits which people obtain from the marine ecosystem,including provisioning services,regulating services,cultural services and supporting services. The human species,while buffered against environmental changes by culture and technology,is fundamentally dependent on the flow of ecosystem services. Marine ecosystem services become increasingly valuable as the terrestrial resources become scarce. The value of marine ecosystem services is the monetary flow of ecosystem services on specific temporal and spatial scales,which often changes due to the variation of the goods prices,yields and the status of marine exploitation. Sensitivity analysis is to study the relationship between the value of marine ecosystem services and the main factors which affect it. Uncertainty analysis based on varying prices,yields and status of marine exploitation was carried out. Through uncertainty analysis,a more credible value range instead of a fixed value of marine ecosystem services was obtained in this study. Moreover,sensitivity analysis of the marine ecosystem services value revealed the relative importance of different factors.

Reliability and sensitivity analyses of HPT blade-tip radial running clearance using multiply response surface model

To reasonably design the blade-tip radial running clearance(BTRRC) of high pressure turbine and improve the performance and reliability of gas turbine, the multi-object multi-discipline reliability sensitivity analysis of BTRRC was accomplished from a probabilistic prospective by considering nonlinear material attributes and dynamic loads. Firstly, multiply response surface model(MRSM) was proposed and the mathematical model of this method was established based on quadratic function. Secondly, the BTRRC was decomposed into three sub-components(turbine disk, blade and casing), and then the single response surface functions(SRSFs) of three structures were built in line with the basic idea of MRSM. Thirdly, the response surface function(MRSM) of BTRRC was reshaped by coordinating SRSFs. From the analysis, it is acquired to probabilistic distribution characteristics of input-output variables, failure probabilities of blade-tip clearance under different static blade-tip clearances δ and major factors impacting BTRRC. Considering the reliability and efficiency of gas turbine, δ=1.87 mm is an optimally acceptable option for rational BTRRC. Through the comparison of three analysis methods(Monte Carlo method, traditional response surface method and MRSM), the results show that MRSM has higher accuracy and higher efficiency in reliability sensitivity analysis of BTRRC. These strengths are likely to become more prominent with the increasing times of simulations. The present study offers an effective and promising approach for reliability sensitivity analysis and optimal design of complex dynamic assembly relationship.

Modeling Seasonal Variations of Subsurface Chlorophyll Maximum in South China Sea

In the South China Sea(SCS), the subsurface chlorophyll maximum(SCM) is frequently observed while the mechanisms of SCM occurrence have not been well understood. In this study, a 1-D physical-biochemical coupled model was used to study the seasonal variations of vertical profiles of chlorophyll-a(Chl-a) in the SCS. Three parameters(i.e., SCM layer(SCML) depth, thickness, and intensity) were defined to characterize the vertical distribution of Chl-a in SCML and were obtained by fitting the vertical profile of Chl-a in the subsurface layer using a Gaussian function. The seasonal variations of SCMs are reproduced reasonably well compared to the observations. The annual averages of SCML depth, thickness, and intensity are 75 ± 10 m, 31 ± 6.7 m, and 0.37 ± 0.11 mg m-3, respectively. A thick, close to surface SCML together with a higher intensity occurs during the northeastern monsoon. Both the SCML thickness and intensity are sensitive to the changes of surface wind speed in winter and summer, but the surface wind speed exerts a minor influence on the SCML depth; for example, double strengthening of the southwestern monsoon in summer can lead to the thickening of SCML by 46%, the intensity decreasing by 30%, and the shoaling by 6%. This is because part of nutrients are pumped from the upper nutricline to the surface mixed layer by strong vertical mixing. Increasing initial nutrient concentrations by two times will increase the intensity of SCML by over 80% in winter and spring. The sensitivity analysis indicates that light attenuation is critical to the three parameters of SCM. Decreasing background light attenuation by 20% extends the euphotic zone, makes SCML deeper(~20%) and thicker(12% – 41%), and increases the intensity by over 16%. Overall, the depth of SCML is mainly controlled by light attenuation, and the SCML thickness and intensity are closely associated with wind and initial nitrate concentration in the SCS.

Reliability and sensitivity of bogie frame of high-speed train with strength degradation

High-speed bogie frame is a key mechanical component in a train system. The reliability analysis of the bogie is necessary to the safety of high-speed train. Reliability analysis of a bogie frame was considered. The equivalent load method was employed to account for random repeated loads in structural reliability analysis. Degradation of material strength was regarded as a Gamma process. The probabilistic perturbation method was, then, employed for response moment computation. Example of a high-speed train bogie structure under time-variant load was employed for reliability and sensitivity analyses. Monte-Carlo simulation verifies the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method in time-variant reliability analysis. The analysis results show that the reliability calculation considering the strength degradation and repeated load is closer to the practicality than the method of considering reliability calculation only. Its decreasing velocity is faster than the traditional reliability. The reliability sensitivity value changes over time. The analysis results provide a variation trend of reliability and sensitivity to design and usage of bogie frame.

Water and heat transport in hilly red soil of southern China:II. Modeling and simulation

Simulation models of heat and water transport have not been rigorously tested for the red soils of southern China. Based on the theory of nonisothermal water-heat coupled transfer, a simulation model, programmed in Visual Basic 6.0, was developed to predict the coupled transfer of water and heat in hilly red soil. A series of soil column experiments for soil water and heat transfer, including soil columns with closed and evaporating top ends, were used to test the simulation model. Results showed that in the closed columns, the temporal and spatial distribution of moisture and heat could be very well predicted by the model, while in the evaporating columns, the simulated soil water contents were somewhat different from the observed ones. In the heat flow equation by Taylor and Lary (1964), the effect of soil water evaporation on the heat flow is not involved, which may be the main reason for the differences between simulated and observed results. The predicted temperatures were not in agreement with the observed one with thermal conductivities calculated by de Vries and Wierenga equations, so that it is suggested that Kh, soil heat conductivity, be multiplied by 8.0 for the first 6.5 h and by 1.2 later on. Sensitivity analysis of soil water and heat coefficients showed that the saturated hydraulic conductivity, KS, and the water diffusivity, D(θ), had great effects on soil water transport; the variation of soil porosity led to the difference of soil thermal properties, and accordingly changed temperature redistribution, which would affect water redistribution.

Parametric analysis on buffeting performance of a long-span high-speed railway suspension bridge

The buffeting performance of kilometer-level high-speed railway suspension bridges has a great impact on the smooth operation of high-speed trains.To investigate the buffeting performance of the structure significantly different from traditional suspension bridges,the first long-span high-speed railway suspension bridge,Wufengshan Yangtze River Bridge(WYRB),is taken as a numerical example to demonstrate the effects of structural parameters and wind field parameters on the buffeting responses.Based on the design information,the spatial finite element model(FEM)of WYRB is established before testing its accuracy.The fluctuating wind fields are simulated via both classical and stochastic wave based spectral representation method(SRM).Finite element method is further taken to analyze the parametric sensitivity on wind induced buffeting responses in time domain.The results show that the vertical displacement is more sensitive to the changing dead load than the lateral and torsional ones.The larger stiffness of the main girder and the lower sag-to-span ratio are both helpful to reduce the buffeting responses.Wind spectrum and coherence function are key influencing factors to the responses so setting proper wind field parameters are essential in the wind-resistant design stage.The analytical results can provide references for wind resistance analysis and selection of structural and fluctuating wind field parameters for similar long-span high-speed railway suspension bridges.

Structural-acoustic coupling characteristics of honeycomb sandwich plate based on parameter sensitivity analysis

The structural-acoustic coupling model for isotropic thin elastic plate was extended to honeycomb sandwich plate(HSP) by applying Green function method.Then an equivalent circuit model of the weakly-strongly coupled system was proposed.Based on that,the estimation formulae of the coupled eigenfrequency were derived.The accuracy of the theoretical predictions was checked against experimental data,with good agreement achieved.Finally,the effects of HSP design parameters on the system coupling degree,the acoustic cavity eigenfrequency,and sound pressure response were analyzed.The results show that mechanical and acoustical characteristics of HSP can be improved by increasing the thickness of face sheet and reducing the mass density of material.

Present and future of prophylactic antibiotics for severe acute pancreatitis

AIM: To investigate the role of prophylactic antibiotics in the reduction of mortality of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) patients, which is highly questioned by more and more randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and metaanalyses. METHODS: An updated meta-analysis was performed. RCTs comparing prophylactic antibiotics for SAP with control or placebo were included for meta-analysis. The mortality outcomes were pooled for estimation, and re-pooled estimation was performed by the sensitivity analysis of an ideal large-scale RCT. RESULTS: Currently available 11 RCTs were included. Subgroup analysis showed that there was significant reduction of mortality rate in the period before 2000, while no significant reduction in the period from 2000 [Risk Ratio, (RR ) = 1.01, P = 0.98]. Funnel plot indi-cated that there might be apparent publication bias in the period before 2000. Sensitivity analysis showed that the RR of mortality rate ranged from 0.77 to 1.00 with a relatively narrow confidence interval (P < 0.05). However, the number needed to treat having a minor lower limit of the range (7-5096 patients) implied that certain SAP patients could still potentially prevent death by antibiotic prophylaxis. CONCLUSION: Current evidences do not support prophylactic antibiotics as a routine treatment for SAP, but the potentially benefited sub-population requires further investigations.

Sensitivity Study on Durability Variables of Marine Concrete Structures

In order to study the influence of parameters on durability of marine concrete structures, the parameter＇s sensitivity analysis was studied in this paper. With the Fick＇s 2nd law of diffusion and the deterministic sensitivity analysis method （DSA）, the sensitivity factors of apparent surface chloride content, apparent chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor were analyzed. The results of the analysis show that the impact of design variables on concrete durability was different. The values of sensitivity factor of chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor were higher than others. Relative less error in chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation coefficient induces a bigger error in concrete durability design and life prediction. According to probability sensitivity analysis （PSA）, the influence of mean value and variance of concrete durability design variables on the durability failure probability was studied. The results of the study provide quantitative measures of the importance of concrete durability design and life prediction variables. It was concluded that the chloride diffusion coefficient and its time dependent attenuation factor have more influence on the reliability of marine concrete structural durability. In durability design and life prediction of marine concrete structures, it was very important to reduce the measure and statistic error of durability design variables.

Sensitivity analysis of influencing parameters in cavern stability

In order to analyze the stability of the underground rock structures,knowing the sensitivity of geomechanical parameters is important.To investigate the priority of these geomechanical properties in the stability of cavern,a sensitivity analysis has been performed on a single cavern in various rock mass qualities according to RMR using Phase 2.The stability of cavern has been studied by investigating the side wall deformation.Results showed that most sensitive properties are coefficient of lateral stress and modulus of deformation.Also parameters of Hoek-Brown criterion and r c have no sensitivity when cavern is in a perfect elastic state.But in an elasto-plastic state,parameters of Hoek-Brown criterion and r c affect the deformability;such effect becomes more remarkable with increasing plastic area.Other parameters have different sensitivities concerning rock mass quality(RMR).Results have been used to propose the best set of parameters for study on prediction of sidewall displacement.

GST polymorphisms are associated with hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Chinese population

AIM: To investigate the association between GSTM1 and GSTT1 polymorphisms and the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in Chinese population. METHODS: Literature databases including PubMed, ISI web of science and other databases were searched.Pooled odds ratio (OR) and 95% CI were calculated using random- or fixed-effects model. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis were also performed. RESULTS: Nineteen studies of GSTM1 (2660 cases and 4017 controls) and 16 studies of GSTT1 (2410 cases and 3669 controls) were included. The GSTM1/GSTT1 null genotypes were associated with increased risk of HCC in Chinese population (for GSTM1, OR = 1.487, 95% CI: 1.159 to 1.908, P = 0.002; for GSTT1, OR = 1.510, 95% CI: 1.236 to 1.845, P = 0.000). No publication bias was detected. In subgroup analysis, glutathione S-transferases polymorphisms were significantly associated with HCC risk among the subjects living in high-incidence areas, but not among the subjects living in low-incidence areas. CONCLUSION: The present meta-analysis suggests that GSTM1/GSTT1 null genotypes are associated with increased risk of HCC in Chinese population.

Sensitivity analysis for parameters of a monitoring system for steep slopes of open-pit mines

Monitoring the stability of steep slopes of open-pit mines is a major issue relating to production safety in mines.In order to determine the technical parameters of a new type of supervising system applied in monitoring steep slopes of open-pit mines,the MSARMA method was used to establish analytical models for the monitoring system,given various parameter settings based on the description of mechanical monitoring principles.We used this sensitivity analysis to conclude that the setting of the most sensitive location of a mechanical monitoring system should be within a range of 1/5～1/2 of the lower part in a vertical direction of steep slopes,with a rational and feasible range of the dip angle setting between 0°～20°.Given the analytical results of our on-site experiments,we have shown that the parameters determined reflect the stability of steep slopes accurately and effectively.These conclusions provide a basis for the application of a new type of steep slope stability monitoring technology in open-pit mines.

Differentially Expressed Genes Related to Fertility Conversion in Thermo-sensitive Genic Male Sterile(TGMS) Lines of Brassica juncea

[Objective] This study was performed to screen functional genes related to the fertility conversion of thermo-sensitive genic male sterile （TGMS） lines of Brassica juncea L. [Method] A B. juncea TGMS line K121S was selected as the experimental material. The total RNAs were isolated from fertile and sterile pollens at different development stages, including mother cell stage, tetrad stage, tricellular pollen stage and maturity stage. DDRT-PCR was carried out to identify differentially expressed genes. [Result] A total of 44 differentially expressed cDNA fragments were identified with Dot blot. And seven candidate genes related to fertility conversion of K121S were screened out by BLASTN, including callose synthase gene, aldehyde dehydrogenase gene and RNA polymerase I transcription factor RRN3 gene which were differentially expressed at the transcriptional level, H＇-ATPase gene, fructose diphosphate aldolase -class I gene, teucine-rich repeat receptor-Jike serine/threonine- protein kinase gene and alkaline/neutral invertase gene, which were differentially expressed at the post-transcriptional level. [Conclusion] The results of this study will help to explain the molecular mechanism of thermo-sensitive genic male sterility of B. juncea.

Financial Valuation of Segment-Specific Marketing Activities and Market Segment Development

By applying methods of investment appraisal, this paper offers a financial approach for determining the optimal level of segment-specific marketing activities and market development under the conditions of imperfect markets and uncertainty. Within the scope of marketing planning and controlling, the model is suited to optimizing an enterprise＇s market activities and taking interdependencies between market segments, production, and investments into account. Applying duality theory of linear programming allows for identifying the income determinants and deriving formulas for a correct valuation by using （corrected） net present values （NPVs）. Under certain conditions, they can also be used to easily evaluate and financially interpret the effects of parameter changes. The author uses sensitivity analysis to support these findings and to obtain more information on the effects of these determinants.

Influences of the Suspension Parameters on the Vehicle Suspension Performance for a Terrain Vehicle

This paper describes an effective methodology for evaluation of the suspension parameters intended to be used for a terrain vehicle. The objective of this approach is to make quick analyses of the sensitivity of the vehicle suspension parameters. For the purpose of developing such a methodology, a mathematical modeling of a quarter vehicles suspension system is developed. Sensitive analysis of the suspension parameters is performed by employing the standard deviation of the vehicle body acceleration, dynamic tire load, and suspension travel. Sensitivity analysis results have shown that the spring stiffness, damping coefficient, tire stiffness and sprung mass have substantial influence on the ride comfort and road holding, while un-sprung mass on the other side has much lower impact in performance of the vehicle suspension system.