The 2 ℃ warming target has been used widely in global and regional climate change research. Previous studies have shown large uncertainties in the time when surface air temperature （SAT） change over China will reac...The 2 ℃ warming target has been used widely in global and regional climate change research. Previous studies have shown large uncertainties in the time when surface air temperature （SAT） change over China will reach 2℃ rela- tive to the pre-industrial era. To understand the uncertainties, we analyzed the projected SAT in the twenty-first century using 40 state-of-the-art climate models under two Repre- sentative Concentration Pathways （RCP4.5 and RCPS.5） from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The 2℃ threshold-crossing time （TCT） of SAT averaged across China was around 2033 and 2029 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Considering a 4-1o- range of inter- model SAT change, the upper and lower bounds of the 2 ℃ TCT could differ by about 25 years or even more. Uncer- tainty in the projected SAT and the warming rate around the TCT are the two main factors responsible for the TCT uncertainty. The former is determined by the climate sensi- tivity represented by the global mean surface temperature response. About 45 % of the intermodel variance of the projected 2 ~C TCT for averaged SAT over China can be explained by climate sensitivity across the models, which is contributed mainly by central and southern China. In a cli- mate more sensitive to CO2 forcing, stronger greenhouse effect, less stratus cloud over the East Asian monsoon region, and less snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau result in increased downward longwave radiation, increased shortwave radia- tion, and decreased shortwave radiation reflected by the surface, respectively, all of which may advance the TCT.展开更多
An empirical simulation method to simulate the possible position of shallow rainfall-induced landslides in China has been developed.This study shows that such a simulation may be operated in real-time to highlight tho...An empirical simulation method to simulate the possible position of shallow rainfall-induced landslides in China has been developed.This study shows that such a simulation may be operated in real-time to highlight those areas that are highly prone to rainfall-induced landslides on the basis of the landslide susceptibility index and the rainfall intensity-duration(I-D) thresholds.First,the study on landslide susceptibility in China is introduced.The entire territory has been classified into five categories,among which high-susceptibility regions(Zone 4-'High' and 5-'Very high') account for 4.15%of the total extension of China.Second,rainfall is considered as an external triggering factor that may induce landslide initiation.Real-time satellite-based TMPA3B42 products may provide real rainfall spatial and temporal patterns,which may be used to derive rainfall duration time and intensity.By using a historical record of 60 significant past landslides,the rainfall I-D equation has been calibrated.The rainfall duration time that may trigger a landslide has resulted between 3 hours and 45 hours.The combination of these two aspects can be exploited to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall-induced landslide hazards when rainfall events exceed the rainfall I-D thresholds,where the susceptibility category is 'high' or 'very high'.This study shows a useful tool to be part of a systematic landslide simulation methodology,potentially providing useful information for a theoretical basis and practical guide for landslide prediction and mitigation throughout China.展开更多
基金supported jointly by the ‘‘Strategic Priority Research Program–Climate Change: Carbon Budget and Related Issues’’ of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA05110300)the Research Fund for Commonwealth Trades (Meteorology) (GYHY201506012)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41420104006)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2015M581152)
文摘The 2 ℃ warming target has been used widely in global and regional climate change research. Previous studies have shown large uncertainties in the time when surface air temperature （SAT） change over China will reach 2℃ rela- tive to the pre-industrial era. To understand the uncertainties, we analyzed the projected SAT in the twenty-first century using 40 state-of-the-art climate models under two Repre- sentative Concentration Pathways （RCP4.5 and RCPS.5） from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The 2℃ threshold-crossing time （TCT） of SAT averaged across China was around 2033 and 2029 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Considering a 4-1o- range of inter- model SAT change, the upper and lower bounds of the 2 ℃ TCT could differ by about 25 years or even more. Uncer- tainty in the projected SAT and the warming rate around the TCT are the two main factors responsible for the TCT uncertainty. The former is determined by the climate sensi- tivity represented by the global mean surface temperature response. About 45 % of the intermodel variance of the projected 2 ~C TCT for averaged SAT over China can be explained by climate sensitivity across the models, which is contributed mainly by central and southern China. In a cli- mate more sensitive to CO2 forcing, stronger greenhouse effect, less stratus cloud over the East Asian monsoon region, and less snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau result in increased downward longwave radiation, increased shortwave radia- tion, and decreased shortwave radiation reflected by the surface, respectively, all of which may advance the TCT.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41501458)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project(Grant No.2016M592860)+4 种基金National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CB733204)Key Laboratory of Mining Spatial Information Technology of NASMG(Grant Nos. KLM201309)Science Program of Shanghai Normal University(Grant No. SK201525)the Shanghai Gaofeng & Gaoyuan Project for University Academic Program Development(Grant Nos.2013LASW-A09 & SKHL1310)the Center of Spatial Information Science and Sustainable Development Applications,Tongji University,Shanghai,China
文摘An empirical simulation method to simulate the possible position of shallow rainfall-induced landslides in China has been developed.This study shows that such a simulation may be operated in real-time to highlight those areas that are highly prone to rainfall-induced landslides on the basis of the landslide susceptibility index and the rainfall intensity-duration(I-D) thresholds.First,the study on landslide susceptibility in China is introduced.The entire territory has been classified into five categories,among which high-susceptibility regions(Zone 4-'High' and 5-'Very high') account for 4.15%of the total extension of China.Second,rainfall is considered as an external triggering factor that may induce landslide initiation.Real-time satellite-based TMPA3B42 products may provide real rainfall spatial and temporal patterns,which may be used to derive rainfall duration time and intensity.By using a historical record of 60 significant past landslides,the rainfall I-D equation has been calibrated.The rainfall duration time that may trigger a landslide has resulted between 3 hours and 45 hours.The combination of these two aspects can be exploited to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall-induced landslide hazards when rainfall events exceed the rainfall I-D thresholds,where the susceptibility category is 'high' or 'very high'.This study shows a useful tool to be part of a systematic landslide simulation methodology,potentially providing useful information for a theoretical basis and practical guide for landslide prediction and mitigation throughout China.
