Using wavelet analysis,regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,this paper analyzed time-series(1959-2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tari...Using wavelet analysis,regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,this paper analyzed time-series(1959-2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.Major findings are as follows:1) In the 48-year study period,average annual temperature,annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends.2) At the 16-year time scale,all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter.At the 8-year time scale,an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three indices.Incidentally,they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards.The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases.3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale,which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001.4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend,as represented by the rising average annual temperature,was remarkable,but the climate wetting trend,as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity,was not obvious.展开更多
Using the data at the county levcl and the regional gravity center model, we calculated six key socio-economic gravity centers, namely population, GDP, output values of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and ...Using the data at the county levcl and the regional gravity center model, we calculated six key socio-economic gravity centers, namely population, GDP, output values of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and arable land area in the Tarim River Basin for each year from 1980 to 2009. We inspected the spatial dynamics of these centers and found that the gravity centers of population and economy evolved simultaneously. The disproportional growth between the population and the economy is also analyzed. The results show that： 1） The gravity centers of the GDR the output values of the main three industries and arable land area show migration trending from southwest to northeast, while the population gravity center shows an excessive growth in the southwest during the same time period. The migration amplitude of the GDP and output values of primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry are measurably higher than that of the population. 2） The population gravity center has a negative correlation with the gravity centers of secondary and tertiary industries output values in both longitudinal and latitudinal directions, and a positive correlation with that of primary industry output value in the longitudinal direction. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient and offset distance, the imbalance between the population and the economy has increased since the 1980s, with regional economic differences now exceeding the international cordon.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of the Second-stage Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No KZCX2-XB2-03,KZCX2-YW-127)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No 40671014)Shanghai Academic Discipline Project (Human Geography) (No B410)
文摘Using wavelet analysis,regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,this paper analyzed time-series(1959-2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.Major findings are as follows:1) In the 48-year study period,average annual temperature,annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends.2) At the 16-year time scale,all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter.At the 8-year time scale,an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three indices.Incidentally,they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards.The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases.3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale,which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001.4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend,as represented by the rising average annual temperature,was remarkable,but the climate wetting trend,as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity,was not obvious.
基金Under the auspices of National Basic Research Program of China(No.2010CB951003)
文摘Using the data at the county levcl and the regional gravity center model, we calculated six key socio-economic gravity centers, namely population, GDP, output values of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and arable land area in the Tarim River Basin for each year from 1980 to 2009. We inspected the spatial dynamics of these centers and found that the gravity centers of population and economy evolved simultaneously. The disproportional growth between the population and the economy is also analyzed. The results show that： 1） The gravity centers of the GDR the output values of the main three industries and arable land area show migration trending from southwest to northeast, while the population gravity center shows an excessive growth in the southwest during the same time period. The migration amplitude of the GDP and output values of primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry are measurably higher than that of the population. 2） The population gravity center has a negative correlation with the gravity centers of secondary and tertiary industries output values in both longitudinal and latitudinal directions, and a positive correlation with that of primary industry output value in the longitudinal direction. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient and offset distance, the imbalance between the population and the economy has increased since the 1980s, with regional economic differences now exceeding the international cordon.
