This paper applied an integrated method combining grey relation analysis, wavelet analysis and statistical analysis to study climate change and its effects on runoff of the Kaidu River at multi-time scales. Major find...This paper applied an integrated method combining grey relation analysis, wavelet analysis and statistical analysis to study climate change and its effects on runoff of the Kaidu River at multi-time scales. Major findings are as follows: 1) Climatic factors were ranked in the order of importance to annual runoff as average annual temperature, average temperature in autumn, average temperature in winter, annual precipitation, precipitation in flood season, average temperature in summer, and average temperature in spring. The average annual temperature and annual precipi- tation were selected as the two representative factors that impact the annual runoff. 2) From the 32-year time scale, the annual runoff and the average annual temperature presented a significantly rising trend, whereas the annual precipita- tion showed little increase over the period of 1957-2002. By changing the time scale from 32-year to 4-year, we ob- served nonlinear trends with increasingly obvious oscillations for annual runoff, average annual temperature, and annual precipitation. 3) The changes of the runoff and the regional climate are closely related, indicating that the runoff change is the result of the regional climate changes. With time scales ranging from 32-year, 16-year, 8-year and to 4-year, there are highly significant linear correlations between the annual runoff and the average annual temperature and the annual precipitation.展开更多
Under the guide of system theory, taking the oasis in the Sangong River watershed as a case study, this paper analyzes the oasis structure and function from 4 aspects including oasis spatial structure, water resources...Under the guide of system theory, taking the oasis in the Sangong River watershed as a case study, this paper analyzes the oasis structure and function from 4 aspects including oasis spatial structure, water resources structure, vegetation structure, economic structure and their corresponding functions. The results indicate that as a typical small-scale watershed, Sangong River watershed has the relatively complete mountain-basin structure, and ecological and productive function. Because of human drastic activity the utilization rate of water resources was as high as 98.7%, and the utilization of groundwater was not reasonable, which resulted in an average annual decline of 0.353m in the water table of alluvial-diluvial-fan oasis, and an average annual increase of 0.047m in the alluvial-plain. The layout of crop and shelter forest benefits to the utilization of water and land resources. The development of oasis economy is at low level, and its eco-economic function is weak.展开更多
Using the data at the county levcl and the regional gravity center model, we calculated six key socio-economic gravity centers, namely population, GDP, output values of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and ...Using the data at the county levcl and the regional gravity center model, we calculated six key socio-economic gravity centers, namely population, GDP, output values of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and arable land area in the Tarim River Basin for each year from 1980 to 2009. We inspected the spatial dynamics of these centers and found that the gravity centers of population and economy evolved simultaneously. The disproportional growth between the population and the economy is also analyzed. The results show that： 1） The gravity centers of the GDR the output values of the main three industries and arable land area show migration trending from southwest to northeast, while the population gravity center shows an excessive growth in the southwest during the same time period. The migration amplitude of the GDP and output values of primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry are measurably higher than that of the population. 2） The population gravity center has a negative correlation with the gravity centers of secondary and tertiary industries output values in both longitudinal and latitudinal directions, and a positive correlation with that of primary industry output value in the longitudinal direction. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient and offset distance, the imbalance between the population and the economy has increased since the 1980s, with regional economic differences now exceeding the international cordon.展开更多
Using wavelet analysis,regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,this paper analyzed time-series(1959-2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tari...Using wavelet analysis,regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,this paper analyzed time-series(1959-2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.Major findings are as follows:1) In the 48-year study period,average annual temperature,annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends.2) At the 16-year time scale,all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter.At the 8-year time scale,an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three indices.Incidentally,they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards.The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases.3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale,which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001.4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend,as represented by the rising average annual temperature,was remarkable,but the climate wetting trend,as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity,was not obvious.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of Second-stage Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-XB2-03)the major direction of Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW- 127)Shanghai Academic Discipline Project (Human Geography) (No. B410)
文摘This paper applied an integrated method combining grey relation analysis, wavelet analysis and statistical analysis to study climate change and its effects on runoff of the Kaidu River at multi-time scales. Major findings are as follows: 1) Climatic factors were ranked in the order of importance to annual runoff as average annual temperature, average temperature in autumn, average temperature in winter, annual precipitation, precipitation in flood season, average temperature in summer, and average temperature in spring. The average annual temperature and annual precipi- tation were selected as the two representative factors that impact the annual runoff. 2) From the 32-year time scale, the annual runoff and the average annual temperature presented a significantly rising trend, whereas the annual precipita- tion showed little increase over the period of 1957-2002. By changing the time scale from 32-year to 4-year, we ob- served nonlinear trends with increasingly obvious oscillations for annual runoff, average annual temperature, and annual precipitation. 3) The changes of the runoff and the regional climate are closely related, indicating that the runoff change is the result of the regional climate changes. With time scales ranging from 32-year, 16-year, 8-year and to 4-year, there are highly significant linear correlations between the annual runoff and the average annual temperature and the annual precipitation.
基金Under the auspices of Project of Western Light Related to Eastern Scholar, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40471134)
文摘Under the guide of system theory, taking the oasis in the Sangong River watershed as a case study, this paper analyzes the oasis structure and function from 4 aspects including oasis spatial structure, water resources structure, vegetation structure, economic structure and their corresponding functions. The results indicate that as a typical small-scale watershed, Sangong River watershed has the relatively complete mountain-basin structure, and ecological and productive function. Because of human drastic activity the utilization rate of water resources was as high as 98.7%, and the utilization of groundwater was not reasonable, which resulted in an average annual decline of 0.353m in the water table of alluvial-diluvial-fan oasis, and an average annual increase of 0.047m in the alluvial-plain. The layout of crop and shelter forest benefits to the utilization of water and land resources. The development of oasis economy is at low level, and its eco-economic function is weak.
基金Under the auspices of National Basic Research Program of China(No.2010CB951003)
文摘Using the data at the county levcl and the regional gravity center model, we calculated six key socio-economic gravity centers, namely population, GDP, output values of primary, secondary and tertiary industries, and arable land area in the Tarim River Basin for each year from 1980 to 2009. We inspected the spatial dynamics of these centers and found that the gravity centers of population and economy evolved simultaneously. The disproportional growth between the population and the economy is also analyzed. The results show that： 1） The gravity centers of the GDR the output values of the main three industries and arable land area show migration trending from southwest to northeast, while the population gravity center shows an excessive growth in the southwest during the same time period. The migration amplitude of the GDP and output values of primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry are measurably higher than that of the population. 2） The population gravity center has a negative correlation with the gravity centers of secondary and tertiary industries output values in both longitudinal and latitudinal directions, and a positive correlation with that of primary industry output value in the longitudinal direction. Based on the analysis of correlation coefficient and offset distance, the imbalance between the population and the economy has increased since the 1980s, with regional economic differences now exceeding the international cordon.
基金Under the auspices of the Second-stage Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No KZCX2-XB2-03,KZCX2-YW-127)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No 40671014)Shanghai Academic Discipline Project (Human Geography) (No B410)
文摘Using wavelet analysis,regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,this paper analyzed time-series(1959-2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.Major findings are as follows:1) In the 48-year study period,average annual temperature,annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends.2) At the 16-year time scale,all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter.At the 8-year time scale,an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three indices.Incidentally,they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards.The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases.3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale,which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001.4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend,as represented by the rising average annual temperature,was remarkable,but the climate wetting trend,as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity,was not obvious.
