During the boreal winter,abundant persistent heavy rainfall(PHR)amount and significant rainfall variability at subseasonal timescale are generally observed over the southern sector of East China,where the large-scale ...During the boreal winter,abundant persistent heavy rainfall(PHR)amount and significant rainfall variability at subseasonal timescale are generally observed over the southern sector of East China,where the large-scale circulation and moisture transport are tightly connected with the equatorial Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).As the MJO convections occur over the equatorial Indian Ocean(MJO phases 1-4),the low-level moisture convergence is enhanced over southern China(SC,108°-120°E,21°-26°N)with the divergence to the north.Thus,a positive anomaly of PHR amount appears in SC but a negative anomaly of PHR amount is seen in the Yangtze River valley(YR,113°-122°E,28°-30°N).In contrast,the divergence(convergence)of moisture flux anomalies in the SC(YR)associated with the western equatorial Pacific MJO convections(phases 5-8)limits(benefits)the occurrence of PHR in the SC(YR).The wintertime PHR over southern China is found to undergo a long-term change over the past three decades(1979-2011)with a decreasing(an increasing)trend of PHR amount in the SC(YR).The change in PHR amount occurs consistently with the decadal change in MJO activity.In the earlier decade(1979-1994,E1),the active Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO events appeared more frequently while they became less frequent in the recent decade(1995-2011,E2).Accordingly,the Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO-related moisture convergence(divergence)anomalies in the SC tend to be weakened(enhanced),contributing to the decrease in PHR amount over the SC in the recent decade.展开更多
In this study, the intensity of the trough over the Bay of Bengal (BBT) and its association with the southern China precipitation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Rossby wave propagation along the African-...In this study, the intensity of the trough over the Bay of Bengal (BBT) and its association with the southern China precipitation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Rossby wave propagation along the African-Asian subtropical Jet stream (AASJ) are investigated on the intraseasonal time scale. The results show that the intensity of the BBT affects the southern China precipitation more directly and to a greater degree than the MJO. The peak amplitude of the BBT tended to occur in phase-3 of the MJO. The strong BBT was substantially modulated by the Rossby wave propagation along the AASJ, which was triggered by the anomalous upstream circulation similar to the pattern of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Therefore, from the perspective of medium- and extended-range weather forecasts, the NAO- like pattern may be regarded as a precursory signal for the strong BBT and thus the southern China precipitation.展开更多
Mapping and assessing soil-erosion risk can address the likelihood of occurrence of erosion as well as its consequences. This in turn provides precautionary and relevant suggestions to assist in disaster reduction. Be...Mapping and assessing soil-erosion risk can address the likelihood of occurrence of erosion as well as its consequences. This in turn provides precautionary and relevant suggestions to assist in disaster reduction. Because soil erosion by water in the watershed of the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River is closely related to silting of the upper reaches of the Yellow River, it is necessary to assess erosion risk in this watershed. This study aims to identify the soil-erosion risk caused by water in the watershed of the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River from 2ool to aOlO. Empirical models called Chinese Soil Loss Equation （CSLE） and Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation （MUSLE） were used to predict the erosion modulus in slope surfaces and gullies. Then the soil erosion risk in this watershed was assessed according to the classification criteria of soil erosion intensities （SL19o-2oo7）. The study results showed that the range of values of the erosion modulus in this watershed was o-44,733 t/km2/a. More than 20% of the total watershed area was found to present an erosion risk, with the regions at risk mainly located in channels and their upper reaches, and in mountainous areas. To determine the regression coefficients of the erosion factors with respect to erosion modulus, a GWR （geographically weighted regression） was carried out using the ArcGIS software. It was found that the topographic factor has the highest contribution rate to the soil erosion modulus, while the highest contribution rate of the erosion factors to the erosion modulus and the largest values of the factors were not located in the same places. Based on this result, the authors propose that slope management is the most important task in preventing soil loss in this watershed, and the soil- conservation projects should be built according to the eontribution rate of the erosion factors.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China [grant number 2018YFC1505804]
文摘During the boreal winter,abundant persistent heavy rainfall(PHR)amount and significant rainfall variability at subseasonal timescale are generally observed over the southern sector of East China,where the large-scale circulation and moisture transport are tightly connected with the equatorial Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).As the MJO convections occur over the equatorial Indian Ocean(MJO phases 1-4),the low-level moisture convergence is enhanced over southern China(SC,108°-120°E,21°-26°N)with the divergence to the north.Thus,a positive anomaly of PHR amount appears in SC but a negative anomaly of PHR amount is seen in the Yangtze River valley(YR,113°-122°E,28°-30°N).In contrast,the divergence(convergence)of moisture flux anomalies in the SC(YR)associated with the western equatorial Pacific MJO convections(phases 5-8)limits(benefits)the occurrence of PHR in the SC(YR).The wintertime PHR over southern China is found to undergo a long-term change over the past three decades(1979-2011)with a decreasing(an increasing)trend of PHR amount in the SC(YR).The change in PHR amount occurs consistently with the decadal change in MJO activity.In the earlier decade(1979-1994,E1),the active Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO events appeared more frequently while they became less frequent in the recent decade(1995-2011,E2).Accordingly,the Indian Ocean(western Pacific)MJO-related moisture convergence(divergence)anomalies in the SC tend to be weakened(enhanced),contributing to the decrease in PHR amount over the SC in the recent decade.
基金supported by the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China (Grant Nos.2009BAC51B02 and 2007BAC29B03)the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (Grant No.GYHY200906014)the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No. 40975033)
文摘In this study, the intensity of the trough over the Bay of Bengal (BBT) and its association with the southern China precipitation, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Rossby wave propagation along the African-Asian subtropical Jet stream (AASJ) are investigated on the intraseasonal time scale. The results show that the intensity of the BBT affects the southern China precipitation more directly and to a greater degree than the MJO. The peak amplitude of the BBT tended to occur in phase-3 of the MJO. The strong BBT was substantially modulated by the Rossby wave propagation along the AASJ, which was triggered by the anomalous upstream circulation similar to the pattern of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Therefore, from the perspective of medium- and extended-range weather forecasts, the NAO- like pattern may be regarded as a precursory signal for the strong BBT and thus the southern China precipitation.
基金financially supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2011CB403306)the Foundation for Excellent Youth Scholars of CAREERI, CAS (Y451201001)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (http://westdc.westgis.ac.cn)
文摘Mapping and assessing soil-erosion risk can address the likelihood of occurrence of erosion as well as its consequences. This in turn provides precautionary and relevant suggestions to assist in disaster reduction. Because soil erosion by water in the watershed of the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River is closely related to silting of the upper reaches of the Yellow River, it is necessary to assess erosion risk in this watershed. This study aims to identify the soil-erosion risk caused by water in the watershed of the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River from 2ool to aOlO. Empirical models called Chinese Soil Loss Equation （CSLE） and Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation （MUSLE） were used to predict the erosion modulus in slope surfaces and gullies. Then the soil erosion risk in this watershed was assessed according to the classification criteria of soil erosion intensities （SL19o-2oo7）. The study results showed that the range of values of the erosion modulus in this watershed was o-44,733 t/km2/a. More than 20% of the total watershed area was found to present an erosion risk, with the regions at risk mainly located in channels and their upper reaches, and in mountainous areas. To determine the regression coefficients of the erosion factors with respect to erosion modulus, a GWR （geographically weighted regression） was carried out using the ArcGIS software. It was found that the topographic factor has the highest contribution rate to the soil erosion modulus, while the highest contribution rate of the erosion factors to the erosion modulus and the largest values of the factors were not located in the same places. Based on this result, the authors propose that slope management is the most important task in preventing soil loss in this watershed, and the soil- conservation projects should be built according to the eontribution rate of the erosion factors.
