小康生活蒙主恩——访新当选的全国政协委员方建平主教

在举国上下积极宣传贯彻党的十六大精神,全面建设小康社会的大好形势下,迎来了全国政协十届盛会的召开。政协组织涵盖着各族各界各阶层参政议政的职能,其中天主教界,也有好几位政协委员,而且今年还出现了新的面孔,对我们教会内而言无疑是件好事。正是怀着这份喜悦的心情。

A stabilized least-squares imaging condition with structure constraints

Conventional shot-gather migration uses a cross-correlation imaging condition proposed by Clarebout （1971）, which cannot preserve imaging amplitudes. The deconvolution imaging condition can improve the imaging amplitude and compensate for illumination. However, the deconvolution imaging condition introduces instability issues. The least-squares imaging condition first computes the sum of the cross-correlation of the forward and backward wavefields over all frequencies and sources, and then divides the result by the total energy of the forward wavefield. Therefore, the least-squares imaging condition is more stable than the classic imaging condition. However, the least-squares imaging condition cannot provide accurate results in areas where the illumination is very poor and unbalanced. To stabilize the least-squares imaging condition and balance the imaging amplitude, we propose a novel imaging condition with structure constraints that is based on the least-squares imaging condition. Our novel imaging condition uses a plane wave construction that constrains the imaging result to be smooth along geological structure boundaries in the inversion frame. The proposed imaging condition improves the stability of the imaging condition and balances the imaging amplitude. The proposed condition is applied to two examples, the horizontal layered model and the Sigsbee 2A model. These tests show that, in comparison to the damped least-squares imaging condition, the stabilized least-squares imaging condition with structure constraints improves illumination stability and balance, makes events more consecutive, adjusts the amplitude of the depth layers where the illumination is poor and unbalanced, suppresses imaging artifacts, and is conducive to amplitude preserving imaging of deep layers.

Modelling Wave Transmission and Overtopping Based on Energy Balance Equation

Wave transmission and overtopping around nearshore breakwaters can have significant influence on the transmitted wave parameters,which affects wave conditions and sediment transportation and becomes the focus of design in engineering.The objective of this paper is to present a simplified model to estimate these important wave parameters.This paper describes the incorporation of wave transmission and overtopping module into a wave model for multi-directional random wave transformation based on energy balance equation with the consideration of wave shoaling,refraction,diffraction,reflection and breaking.Wen's frequency spectrum and non-linear dispersion relation are also included in this model.The influence of wave parameters of transmitted waves through a smooth submerged breakwater has been considered in this model with an improved description of the transmitted wave spectrum of van der Meer et al.(2000) by Carevic et al.(2013).This improved wave model has been validated through available laboratory experiments.Then the verified model is applied to investigate the effect of wave transmission and overtopping on wave heights behind low-crested breakwaters in a project for nearshore area.Numerical calculations are carried out with and without consideration of the wave transmission and overtopping,and comparison of them indicates that there is a considerable difference in wave height and thus it is important to include wave transmission and overtopping in modelling nearshore wave field with the presence of low-crested breakwaters.Therefore,this model can provide a general estimate of the desired wave field parameters,which is adequate for engineers at the preliminary design stage of low-crested breakwaters.

Establishment of Rural Housing Land Standard in China

On the basis of rural household survey in 12 provinces of China in 2005,this research built an econometrical model to find the area standard for rural housing land.This standard is expected to facilitate rural housing land administration,efficient and intensive housing land use and policy making.This research concludes:1) according to the household survey data,the average area for rural housing land in China is about 235.26 m 2,and the rural housing land mainly includes unused land(42.89%) and house construction land(37.76%) with the average floor-area ratio of 0.42;2) the indexes in the standard concern the factors such as location,landform,house form,household population and cultivated land area per farmer,which all have significant effects on rural housing land use;3) the reasonable area for rural housing land may be 150 m 2 in average before 2020,and the referential standards in different provinces are 120 m 2,130 m 2,140m 2,150 m 2,160 m 2,170 m 2,190 m 2,200 m 2,210 m 2,220 m 2,230 m 2 and 250 m 2 respectively;and 4) if there are less than two persons or more than five persons in a family,these standards need to be decreased or increased by 7%.When the cultivated land area per farmer is lower than the provincial average,the standards have to reduce by 3.5%.

Maximum Posterior Adjustment of Extended Network and Estimation Formulae of Its Variance Components

This paper derives the maximum posterior adjustment formulae of the extended network and the estimation formulaes of variance components of Helmert, Welsch and Frstner types when there are two types of uncorrelated observations in it, and perfects the theory of the maximum posterior adjustment.

Modeling approaches to pressure balance dynamic system in shield tunneling

In order to deal with modeling problem of a pressure balance system with time-delay, nonlinear, time-varying and uncertain characteristics, an intelligent modeling procedure is proposed, which is based on artificial neural network(ANN) and input-output data of the system during shield tunneling and can overcome the precision problem in mechanistic modeling(MM) approach. The computational results show that the training algorithm with Gauss-Newton optimization has fast convergent speed. The experimental investigation indicates that, compared with mechanistic modeling approach, intelligent modeling procedure can obviously increase the precision in both soil pressure fitting and forecasting period. The effectiveness and accuracy of proposed intelligent modeling procedure are verified in laboratory tests.

Enterprise modeling method of calculation-independent model level

Aimed at deficiencies in the development and implementation of Enterprise Service Architecture （ESA） software, an ESA software developing mode based on Model Driven Architecture （MDA） is put forward. This mode includes a calculation-independent model （ CIM ）, a platform-independent model （ PIM ）, a platform-specific model （PSM） and a code level. Based on this mode, the modeling architecture of CIM level is presented. CIM here includes a global model, a process model, an information model and an organization model. The modeling elements of global model, process recta-model, information recta-model and organization meta-model are defined in detail and the relationship between them is described. The reflecting relationship between these models is established as well.

Penalized profile least squares-based statistical inference for varying coefficient partially linear errors-in-variables models

The purpose of this paper is two fold. First, we investigate estimation for varying coefficient partially linear models in which covariates in the nonparametric part are measured with errors. As there would be some spurious covariates in the linear part, a penalized profile least squares estimation is suggested with the assistance from smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalty. However, the estimator is often biased due to the existence of measurement errors, a bias correction is proposed such that the estimation consistency with the oracle property is proved. Second, based on the estimator, a test statistic is constructed to check a linear hypothesis of the parameters and its asymptotic properties are studied. We prove that the existence of measurement errors causes intractability of the limiting null distribution that requires a Monte Carlo approximation and the absence of the errors can lead to a chi-square limit. Furthermore, confidence regions of the parameter of interest can also be constructed. Simulation studies and a real data example are conducted to examine the performance of our estimators and test statistic.

Post-failure behavior of tunnel heading collapse by MPM simulation

Tunnel collapse presents a serious threat to the safety of urban construction. The traditional approach adopted to assess this risk is to evaluate the factor of safety against failure. However, this analysis only determines on whether the tunnel will collapse or not, and does not provide information on the magnitude of the post-failure behavior(for example, catastrophic or progressive) if the tunnel collapse occurs. In this study, a meshless method based on the material point method(MPM) was used to investigate the post-failure behavior of tunnel heading collapse in two-dimensional plane-strain conditions. The capability and accuracy of MPM were verified by comparing the elicited results to centrifuge test data and to analytical solutions obtained from limit state methods. MPM simulations were conducted at different soil conditions(clay or sand) and profiles(homogenous or linear increasing strength) as well as at different tunnel geometries(i.e. tunnel depth and unlined length). The differences in the post-failure behavior and mechanisms are examined and reported.

MODELING H1N1 FLU EPIDEMIC WITH CONTACT TRACING AND QUARANTINE

A nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study the dynamics of 2009 HIN1 flu epidemic in a homogeneous population with constant immigration of susceptibles. The effect of contact tracing and quarantine （isolation） strategies in reduc- ing the spread of H1N1 flu is incorporated. The model monitors the dynamics of five sub-populations （classes）, namely susceptible with high infection risk, susceptible with reduction of infection risk, infective, quarantined and recovered individuals. The model analysis includes the determination of equilibrium points and carrying out their stability analysis in terms of the threshold parameter R0. Moreover, the numerical simulation of the proposed model is also performed by using fourth order Runge-Kutta method along with the sensitivity analysis of the endemic equilibrium point. The analysis and numeri- cal simulation results demonstrate that the maximum implementation of contact tracing and quarantine strategies help in reducing endemic infective class size and hence act as effective intervention strategy to control the disease. This gives a theoretical interpreta- tion to the practical experiences that the early contact tracing and quarantine strategies are criticMly important to control the outbreak of epidemics.

Sediment flux from the Zhoushan Archipelago, eastern China

Knowledge of the sediment flux derived from different sources is critical for interpreting the sedimentary records associated with large river sedimentary systems. For the Changjiang River system, previous studies hardly focused on the sediment load from the adjacent Zhoushan Archipelago(ZA). Based on four prediction models, aiming to improve the understanding of the sediment load from the ZA during the Holocene, we show that the predicted sediment flux of the ZA ranges from ~0.7 to 26.5 Mt·yr^(-1), with an average value of 10.7 Mt·yr^(-1), and the islands with a relatively large area or high relief contribute greatly to the total flux. This sediment load is an order of magnitude lower than that of the Changjiang River, but it is similar to those of the local small rivers. Located in the core area of the southward dispersal path of the Changjiang River plume, the ZA also influences the sediment transport into Hangzhou Bay and over the Zhejiang-Fujian coastal seas. On the Holocene temporal scale, e.g., for the period from 6 ka BP to 2 ka BP, the sediments discharged from the ZA had a considerable effect on the shelf sedimentary system. This study provides evidence for an important role an archipelago can play in terms of sediment supply and transport in coastal and inner continental shelf regions.

MODELING THE SCHISTOSOMIASIS ON THE ISLETS IN NANJING

A compartmental model is established for schistosomiasis infection in Qianzhou and Zimuzhou, two islets in the center of Yangtzi River near Nanjing, P. R. China. The model consists of five differential equations about the susceptible and infected subpopu- lations of mammalian Rattus norvegicus and Oncomelania snails. We calculate the basic reproductive number R0 and discuss the global stability of the disease free equilibrium and the unique endemic equilibrium when it exists. The dynamics of the model can be characterized in terms of the basic reproductive number. The parameters in the model are estimated based on the data from the field study of the Nanjing Institute of Para- sitic Diseases. Our analysis shows that in a natural isolated area where schistosomiasis is endemic, killing snails is more effective than killing Rattus norvegicus for the control of schistosomiasis.