基于方案区分度的组合权重信度判别及修正研究

针对方案区分度(方案综合评价值之间的差异性)较低而导致难以有效决策问题,将主观权重与客观权重作为样本点,采用规划方法建立组合赋权优化模型。基于统计学相关原理,提出了组合权重信度概念,分析了其对决策结果的影响,给出了信度判别准则。以方案区分度较快改善为目标,提出了组合权重修正的具体步骤。最后运用民营企业进入军品市场的算例说明方法的有效性。

Discussion on Feasibility of Adjustment Program for Jiangmen Chinese White Dolphin Provincial Nature Reserve

From the protection of Chinese white dolphin and living environment,and considering the industrial development in coastal areas,we put forward adjustment program for Jiangmen Chinese White Dolphin Provincial Nature Reserve. Meanwhile we analyzed the feasibility of this program by systematically focusing the effect of adjusted functional regions on Chinese white dolphin.

Intensity Allocation Criteria of Carbon Emissions Permits and Regional Economic Development in China——Based on a 30-Province/Autonomous Region Computable General Equilibrium Model

The intensity allocation criteria of carbon emissions permits and its influence on China＇s regional development are analyzed through the 30-province/autonomous region computable general equilibrium （CGE） model. Simulation results show that： industrial intensity criteria without taking regional economic development into account deepen the unbalance of regional economic development; regional intensity criteria without taking industrial properties into account exert little negative impact on regional harmonious development, but relatively high negative influence on high-carbon emission industries. The two-step allocation scheme that the central government allocates emissions permits to provincial governments based on regional economic development and then provincial governments allocate emissions permits to emission resources or entities based on industrial properties is a feasible and operable choice.

Optimum Solution for the Safe Drinking Water Crisis in Tala Upazila, Bangladesh

Coastal areas of Bangladesh are especially vulnerable due to their physiographic location and exposure to natural calamities. Around 35 million people living in coastal areas have no access or limited access to safe drinking water. Contamination of water sources by salinity, arsenic or iron are the principal causes of water scarcity. Rising sea levels and unevenness of climatic events due to climate change will exacerbate the situation in coastal areas, especially in the southwestern coastal zone. This study examines one of the vulnerable coastal upazila Tala at Satkhira(an 'upazila' is a medium level administrative unit in Bangladesh) in the southwestern zone of Bangladesh to understand the gravity of the problems. The study develops a GIS based multi-criteria analysis to identify suitable options and locations of fresh water as part of a current and future solution to the problems and further deterioration. To fulfill the objectives, a questionnaire-based GPS guided field survey was conducted to collect details of field level conditions in order to find a suitable solution. Because aquifers are considered the primary source of drinking water, field data have been analyzed for two distinct aquifers, one relatively shallow and one deeper, to understand aquifer quality. Potentiality of different water sources the socioeconomic status of communities, types of water use and corresponding sources and water demand are also evaluated. The analysis finds that alternative water sources that are safe are difficult to find, because both surface and groundwater-based sources are already contaminated, and there are no nearby, easily accessible safe sources. Groundwater-based sources are contaminated by arsenic, iron or salinity, and surface water-based sources are not in use due to maintenance and management issues. In some cases, surface water sources are polluted by flash flooding of high saline water during storm surges or seepage from saline water-based aquacultures. Multiple limitations identified during field observations and field data analysis were considered as an analytical parameter A GIS based multi-criteria analysis incorporated field data, including Geo-spatial and socioeconomic information for road networks, settlement locations, number of households, quality and quantity of existing water sources, water demand and business opportunities. The analysis found some potential options in distributed locations which are consistent with community demand. Suggested options made use of technologies that are already understood and commonly used by communities, like deep tubewells, PSFs(Pond Sand Filter) and WTPs(Water Treatment Plant). In the study area, PSF is the most commonly used method and to make this surface water-based technology sustainable some precautionary measurements are suggested.