期刊文献+
共找到2篇文章
< 1 >
每页显示 20 50 100
20年来新疆入境旅游经济增长周期与趋势预测 被引量:10
1
作者 王晶 杨宝仁 何超 《干旱区资源与环境》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2014年第9期197-202,共6页
入境旅游是旅游业"三大市场"中开发最早、发展最快的市场,入境旅游人数和旅游外汇收入不仅是衡量一个国家或地区经济实力和区域开放程度的指标,也是研究入境旅游发展态势的重要指数。旅游业作为一个经济产业,其发展过程存在周期性的波... 入境旅游是旅游业"三大市场"中开发最早、发展最快的市场,入境旅游人数和旅游外汇收入不仅是衡量一个国家或地区经济实力和区域开放程度的指标,也是研究入境旅游发展态势的重要指数。旅游业作为一个经济产业,其发展过程存在周期性的波动,构建一元线性回归模型,运用PASW Statistics18软件对1993-2012年统计数据进行形态学分析和发展趋势预测,并分析影响新疆入境旅游的主要因素。结果表明:1)入境旅游人数与旅游外汇收入线性关系显著且波动周期基本一致,数据拟合为5个短周期,主要指标呈现增长趋势明显,但受复杂外在环境影响,一度出现超常波动增长的状况;2)新疆入境旅游持续稳定的增长是未来发展的基本趋势,预计在2012-2016年,新疆的入境旅游将会进入一个新的发展周期;3)新疆入境旅游市场受到政治、经济、社会、环境等多因素影响和制约,未来发展存在诸多不确定性。 展开更多
关键词 入境旅游市场 旅游周期波动 线性回归模型 相关性 新疆
原文传递
Pulling Vs. Pushing:Effect of Climatic Factors on Periodical Fluctuation of Russian and South Korean Tourist Demand in Hainan Island,China 被引量:1
2
作者 CHEN Fan LIU Jun GE Quansheng 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2017年第4期648-659,共12页
While climate is an important factor attracting tourists to certain destinations,it can also motivate people residing in a country with a harsh climate to move to another location.By applying X-12 decompositions and a... While climate is an important factor attracting tourists to certain destinations,it can also motivate people residing in a country with a harsh climate to move to another location.By applying X-12 decompositions and a panel data regression analysis,this study analyzes the pull and push effects of climatic seasonal factors between destination(Hainan Island,China) and source countries(Russia and South Korea).The findings show that climatic seasonal factors have significant pulling and pushing effects on seasonal patterns of tourism demand,with temperature being the main factor.Furthermore,the number of paid vacation days in the source country affects that country's sensitivity to climatic seasonal factors;countries with a higher numbers of paid vacation days are more sensitive to climatic conditions.Lastly,future global warming may causes the aforementioned pull and push effects to abate,which will have an unavoidable influence on tourism industries. 展开更多
关键词 seasonality climate tourism demand Hainan Island China
下载PDF
上一页 1 下一页 到第
使用帮助 返回顶部