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基于Bayes方法的堤坝时变渗流风险率评估 被引量:9
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作者 姜树海 范子武 《岩土工程学报》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2007年第3期420-424,共5页
随着工程的老化,影响堤坝防洪安全的各种不确定性因素将发生缓慢变化。定量评估各种随机量的时变特性,对确定时变的防洪风险率至关重要。Bayes方法提供了对随机量概率分布进行推断的框架,利用一切可以利用的先验信息,并通过不断的实时... 随着工程的老化,影响堤坝防洪安全的各种不确定性因素将发生缓慢变化。定量评估各种随机量的时变特性,对确定时变的防洪风险率至关重要。Bayes方法提供了对随机量概率分布进行推断的框架,利用一切可以利用的先验信息,并通过不断的实时采样信息,修正和改进原有的概率分布规律假设,以减少所考察随机量的时变不确定性。本文以渗流随机量的时变特性分析为例,论证了采用Bayes方法对时变随机量进行定量评估的可行性和适用性,并建议以正态共轭分布模拟数据的采样过程并计算其后验分布。在此基础上,讨论了渗流风险率计算的实测法模型,分析了随机变量的时变特性对渗流风险率的影响。 展开更多
关键词 时变随机量 渗流风险率分析 BAYES方法 堤坝工程老化
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Heavy tails of a Lévy process and its maximum over a random time interval
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作者 LIU Yan TANG QiHe 《Science China Mathematics》 SCIE 2011年第9期1875-1884,共10页
Let {Xt,t ≥ 0} be a Levy process with Levy measure v on (-∞,∞), and let τ be a nonnegative random variable independent of {Xt,t ≥ 0}. We are interested in the tail probabilities of Xτ and X(τ) = sup0≤t≤τ... Let {Xt,t ≥ 0} be a Levy process with Levy measure v on (-∞,∞), and let τ be a nonnegative random variable independent of {Xt,t ≥ 0}. We are interested in the tail probabilities of Xτ and X(τ) = sup0≤t≤τ Xt. For various cases, under the assumption that either the Levy measure v or the random variable T has a heavy right tail we prove that both Pr(XT 〉 x) and Pr(X(τ) 〉 x) are asymptotic to ETv((x, ∞)) + Pτ(τ 〉 x/(0 V EX1)) as x → ∞, where Pr(τ 〉 x/x) = 0 by convention. 展开更多
关键词 heavy-tailed distribution Levy process MAXIMUM tail asymptotics
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Consistency of Chi-Squared Test with Varying Number of Classes
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作者 HUANG Rui CUI Hengjian 《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》 SCIE EI CSCD 2015年第2期439-450,共12页
The classical chi-squared goodness of fit test assumes the number of classes is fixed,meanwhile the test statistic has a limiting chi-square distribution under the null hypothesis.It is well known that the number of c... The classical chi-squared goodness of fit test assumes the number of classes is fixed,meanwhile the test statistic has a limiting chi-square distribution under the null hypothesis.It is well known that the number of classes varying with sample size in the test has attached more and more attention.However,in this situation,there is not theoretical results for the asymptotic property of such chi-squared test statistic.This paper proves the consistency of chi-squared test with varying number of classes under some conditions.Meanwhile,the authors also give a convergence rate of KolmogorovSimirnov distance between the test statistic and corresponding chi-square distributed random variable.In addition,a real example and simulation results validate the reasonability of theoretical result and the superiority of chi-squared test with varying number of classes. 展开更多
关键词 Consistency of chi-squared test goodness of fit test varying number of classes.
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THE LIMIT THEOREM FOR DEPENDENT RANDOM VARIABLES WITH APPLICATIONS TO AUTOREGRESSION MODELS
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作者 Yong ZHANG Xiaoyun YANG Zhishan DONG Dehui WANG 《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》 SCIE EI CSCD 2011年第3期565-579,共15页
This paper studies the autoregression models of order one, in a general time series setting that allows for weakly dependent innovations. Let {Xt} be a linear process defined by Xt =∑k=0^∞ψ kεt-k, where {ψk, k ≥... This paper studies the autoregression models of order one, in a general time series setting that allows for weakly dependent innovations. Let {Xt} be a linear process defined by Xt =∑k=0^∞ψ kεt-k, where {ψk, k ≥ 0} is a sequence of real numbers and {εk, k = 0, ±1, ±2,...} is a sequence of random variables. Two results are proved in this paper. In the first result, assuming that {εk, k ≥ 1} is a sequence of asymptotically linear negative quadrant dependent (ALNQD) random variables, the authors find the limiting distributions of the least squares estimator and the associated regression t statistic. It is interesting that the limiting distributions are similar to the one found in earlier work under the assumption of i.i.d, innovations. In the second result the authors prove that the least squares estimator is not a strong consistency estimator of the autoregressive parameter a when {εk, k ≥ 1} is a sequence of negatively associated (NA) random variables, and ψ0 = 1, ψk = 0, k ≥ 1. 展开更多
关键词 ALNQD autoregression models least squares estimator negatively associated unit root test.
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