Previous studies have shown that the active tectonic block boundaries in the Chinese mainland are the main belts and concentration areas of strong earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland.It is essential to carry...Previous studies have shown that the active tectonic block boundaries in the Chinese mainland are the main belts and concentration areas of strong earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland.It is essential to carry out follow-up analysis of strong earthquake risk of active tectonic block boundaries.In this paper,we carry out the analysis on the tendency of strong earthquakes along each active tectonic block boundary from three aspects respectively,including the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the probability method based on the log-normal distribution function,and variation of b value.The estimation of strong earthquake criticality on each active tectonic block boundary is done based on the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the cumulative probability and conditional probability,and the decrease of the b value.Finally,according to the results of analyses on the above three aspects,the potential strong earthquake areas in the forthcoming 5 years in the Chinese mainland are discussed.展开更多
The objective of Autoregressive Distributed Lag （ARDL） investigation of macroeconomic mechanisms on ASEAN-5 stock earnings equation can contribute to analyzing and demonstrating macroeconomic forces acting a statist...The objective of Autoregressive Distributed Lag （ARDL） investigation of macroeconomic mechanisms on ASEAN-5 stock earnings equation can contribute to analyzing and demonstrating macroeconomic forces acting a statistically and economically significant effect on rate of return of securities for a given time through the application of the ARDL approach to cointegration when the variables are mixed degrees of integration in cointegrated time series, i.e. I（0） and I（1）. This results in a long-run or a short-run relationship between macroeconomic force acting for a given time affecting 24 quarterly rates of return for listed companies in Information and Communication Technologies OCT） sector of Stock Exchange of Thailand （SET）, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index （KLSE） index （Malaysia）, Financial Times Share Index （FTSI）, Philippine Stock Exchange （PSE）, and Jakarta Composite Index （JKSE） （Indonesia）. The impulses of three ASEAN macroeconomic forces---GDPt, EXt, and INTt acting for a given time influence the earnings of selected 23 1CT returns for listed companies on both domestic investments and outsider investments in the same period. This paper has investigated how other-concerning macroeconomic force acting might interrelate with rate of return of securities in the ICT sector, debt and financial innovations, in line with some significant formalized facts. The funding of capital inflow in part of ICT securities was statistically globally significant to recognize significant achievement in ICT specific pathways to distinction as the science of accomplishment. The public sector performing as a key purchaser of ICT security solutions related to integrate the ASEAN exchange members into modern capitalization can lead to adverse effects, such as risky investment-hub interventions due to the mixing financial systems in three ASEAN regional integrations through investments.展开更多
The latest financial crisis has been impressive for strength, impact, duration, and reduced efficacy of the economic and financial policies adopted by the authorities. We use an original information risk model to cont...The latest financial crisis has been impressive for strength, impact, duration, and reduced efficacy of the economic and financial policies adopted by the authorities. We use an original information risk model to contribute to the analysis of the crisis and to suggest some approaches for a possible early diagnosis. Using data referred to the three main financial markets and comparing the latest crisis with the previous one and with long-term quantitative evidence, we find out that the 2007-2009 crisis was very different in the information risk quality. That gap affected the market risk aversion and its equilibrium, reducing the efficacy of the authorities＇ intervention tools mainly based on payoff risk control and efficient market restoration. Since information risk is an endogenous element of the market dynamics that can be independent form contingent levels of market efficiency. Drivers of information risk in the European Markets differed strongly from the US and Japanese ones; that is why some global decisions had low impact while opportunities of local intervention were missed.展开更多
基金sponsored by the Special Basic Scientific Research Program of Institute of Earthquake Science(02092425),China Earthquake Administration
文摘Previous studies have shown that the active tectonic block boundaries in the Chinese mainland are the main belts and concentration areas of strong earthquakes occurring in the Chinese mainland.It is essential to carry out follow-up analysis of strong earthquake risk of active tectonic block boundaries.In this paper,we carry out the analysis on the tendency of strong earthquakes along each active tectonic block boundary from three aspects respectively,including the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the probability method based on the log-normal distribution function,and variation of b value.The estimation of strong earthquake criticality on each active tectonic block boundary is done based on the evolutionary characteristics of the Load/Unload Response Ratio time series,the cumulative probability and conditional probability,and the decrease of the b value.Finally,according to the results of analyses on the above three aspects,the potential strong earthquake areas in the forthcoming 5 years in the Chinese mainland are discussed.
文摘The objective of Autoregressive Distributed Lag （ARDL） investigation of macroeconomic mechanisms on ASEAN-5 stock earnings equation can contribute to analyzing and demonstrating macroeconomic forces acting a statistically and economically significant effect on rate of return of securities for a given time through the application of the ARDL approach to cointegration when the variables are mixed degrees of integration in cointegrated time series, i.e. I（0） and I（1）. This results in a long-run or a short-run relationship between macroeconomic force acting for a given time affecting 24 quarterly rates of return for listed companies in Information and Communication Technologies OCT） sector of Stock Exchange of Thailand （SET）, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index （KLSE） index （Malaysia）, Financial Times Share Index （FTSI）, Philippine Stock Exchange （PSE）, and Jakarta Composite Index （JKSE） （Indonesia）. The impulses of three ASEAN macroeconomic forces---GDPt, EXt, and INTt acting for a given time influence the earnings of selected 23 1CT returns for listed companies on both domestic investments and outsider investments in the same period. This paper has investigated how other-concerning macroeconomic force acting might interrelate with rate of return of securities in the ICT sector, debt and financial innovations, in line with some significant formalized facts. The funding of capital inflow in part of ICT securities was statistically globally significant to recognize significant achievement in ICT specific pathways to distinction as the science of accomplishment. The public sector performing as a key purchaser of ICT security solutions related to integrate the ASEAN exchange members into modern capitalization can lead to adverse effects, such as risky investment-hub interventions due to the mixing financial systems in three ASEAN regional integrations through investments.
文摘The latest financial crisis has been impressive for strength, impact, duration, and reduced efficacy of the economic and financial policies adopted by the authorities. We use an original information risk model to contribute to the analysis of the crisis and to suggest some approaches for a possible early diagnosis. Using data referred to the three main financial markets and comparing the latest crisis with the previous one and with long-term quantitative evidence, we find out that the 2007-2009 crisis was very different in the information risk quality. That gap affected the market risk aversion and its equilibrium, reducing the efficacy of the authorities＇ intervention tools mainly based on payoff risk control and efficient market restoration. Since information risk is an endogenous element of the market dynamics that can be independent form contingent levels of market efficiency. Drivers of information risk in the European Markets differed strongly from the US and Japanese ones; that is why some global decisions had low impact while opportunities of local intervention were missed.
