中国区域经济增长俱乐部趋同及其演变分析——基于时空加权马尔科夫链的预测

利用马尔科夫链、空间马尔科夫链及时空加权马尔科夫链等方法,分析了中国所有地级市经济增长的趋同俱乐部空间分布及其演变趋势,认为：（1）中国地级市经济增长存在低水平、中低水平、中高水平及高水平等四个趋同俱乐部。（2）低水平趋同俱乐部主要集中在我国中部的落后地区及西部边远地区,且多为少数民族聚集地。高水平趋同俱乐部主要集中在我国中西部资源型城市及沿海城市。（3）邻居越发达,越有利于趋同俱乐部的演变。（4）从极限分布来看,与低收入邻居相邻未来67.5%的可能仍然属于低收入类型,与高收入邻居相邻未来65.2%的可能属于高收入类型。最后,提出制定有梯度的区域适配型政策、提高基本公共服务水平、以企业间的合作为纽带及以新型中小城镇及城市群为增长极等政策建议。

长江经济带城市生态旅游发展水平时空演变趋势

【目的】城市生态旅游是环境风险挑战背景下推动城市地区生态化建设和旅游可持续发展的有效途径。【方法】文章选取长江经济带110个地级市为研究区,运用熵权TOPSIS、核密度估计、时空马尔科夫链等方法,探析2011-2022年城市生态旅游发展水平时空演变格局并预测其未来的发展趋势。【结果】研究发现:1)时空分布特征上,长江经济带城市生态旅游发展水平整体呈逐年提高的“双峰”型分布,但依然处于起步阶段,优化潜力较大。空间上,城市生态旅游发展以上海、南京、重庆等省级行政单位为中心向邻近城市逐级递减,显示出鲜明的圈层式空间结构。2)时空转移规律上,长江经济带城市生态旅游发展水平呈现朝高等级状态发展的转移态势,但其转移的流动性较差,短期内难以实现跃迁式向上转移。地理领域背景深刻影响着长江经济带城市生态旅游发展水平的转移,空间溢出效应显著。3)长期演变趋势上,长江经济带大部分地级市持续稳定朝较高水平目标向上转移,呈现从低至高次第增加的演进态势,此时“俱乐部趋同”效应将不复存在。【结论】长江经济带城市生态旅游发展潜力较大,其发展应建立在环境保护治理和资源合理利用的基础之上,同时恪守宏观整体性原则,不断探索行之有效的生态旅游发展模式。

北京城乡人口流动状态预测研究——一个新方法

本文在传统有限马尔科夫链的随机过程中,加入时间因素和空间属性,构造时空马尔科夫链,并以北京市2011年人口密度、林木绿化率、学校密度、每千人拥有医院床位张数为基期数据,预测至2020年北京城乡人口流动状态和趋势。研究发现:在2018年以前,北京市城乡人口流动状态是不稳定的,城乡转移概率曲线呈现先凸后凹的雁阵特征,空间分异趋势明显;至2018年,北京市城乡人口迁移概率趋于一种相对稳定的状态,但城乡转移概率的差距并未缩小,城乡二元格局在短期内不会改变。因此,为缓解特大城市资源环境承载压力,京津冀三地政府应联合制定省际经济利益协调机制,实行区域经济政府政绩一体化考核,加快新城建设,发展功能互补的中小城镇,合理引导产业转移,以业带城,形成城市群,以小城镇赢大战略,均衡配置公共资源,统筹城乡空间布置,放开卫星城户籍限制,实施城乡医疗保险一体化改革。

Spatio-temporal Dynamic Evolution and the Factors Impacting Eco-efficiency in Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle

In response to the 14th National Five-year Plan of China and to better explore new strategies for promoting regional coordinated green development, the eco-efficiency values of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle and the corresponding temporal analysis from 2004 to 2018 were assessed in this paper using the super-SBM model and Markov chain. Meanwhile, the spatial analysis of eco-efficiency was conducted by a geographically weighted regression model. Although eco-efficiency has risen at an increasing rate, the economic development of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle was still ecologically ineffective. This means there is an urgent need to improve the efficiency of resource utilization and promote technological innovation. During the study period, the evolution of the eco-efficiency presented as a “π” shape, and was accompanied by the phenomenon of “club convergence”. There was also a strong tendency for eco-efficiency to maintain the original status quo, which indicates that it lacked sufficient momentum for improvement, so it was difficult to achieve a leapfrog transfer. Spatially, the eco-efficiency was distributed from northwest to southeast in a high-low-high manner. The spatial-temporal differences of eco-efficiency narrowed but the effect of agglomeration was relatively weak and there was a polarization trend. Further investigation suggests that the differences in the development level of urbanization, opening, technology, environmental regulation and advancement of industrial structure led to the spatial differences of eco-efficiency. Each city in the Economic Circle should make every effort to improve eco-efficiency accordingly, and thus to promote the green development of the whole region, so as to lay a foundation for driving the green and coordinated development of the central and western regions.