Runoff series of the Yangtze River presents an intricate variation tendency under the reinforced influence of human activities.The Morlet Wavelet Transform method has been applied to analyze the annual runoff data fro...Runoff series of the Yangtze River presents an intricate variation tendency under the reinforced influence of human activities.The Morlet Wavelet Transform method has been applied to analyze the annual runoff data from 1950 to 2011 at the Yangtze River Estuary.It can clearly reveal the multi-time scales structure,break point,change and distribution of periodic variation in the different time scales of the runoff series.The main conclusions are that:1) Repeated periodic oscillations accompanied by an extremely large fluctuation are presented in the runoff series with an obvious difference between wet and dry years,and the major periods of the time series are about 3,8,16 and 23 years respectively.Among them,the presented maximum periodic oscillation is 23 years scale.2) In the 23-year time scale,the wet periods are 1950-1958,1969-1980 and 1992-2003,and the dry periods are 1959-1968,1981-1991 and 2004-2011.3) It can be predicted from the view of long time scales that the low annual runoff will likely occur in the near future.展开更多
Time series of wind speed are composed of large and small ramp structures. Data analysis reveals a power law relation between the linear slope of ramp structures and the time scale. This suggests that these ramp struc...Time series of wind speed are composed of large and small ramp structures. Data analysis reveals a power law relation between the linear slope of ramp structures and the time scale. This suggests that these ramp structures of wind speed have a self-similar characteristic. The lower limit of the self-similar scale range was 2 s. The upper limit is unexpectedly large at 27 rain. Data are collected from grassland, city, and lake areas. Although these data have different underlying surfaces, all of them clearly show a power law relation, with slight differences in their power exponents.展开更多
Decarbonization of electricity industry for the goal of sustainability success has resulted in large investment in alternative energy sources such as wind, solar, biomass. Although these energy resources are sustainab...Decarbonization of electricity industry for the goal of sustainability success has resulted in large investment in alternative energy sources such as wind, solar, biomass. Although these energy resources are sustainable and have the potential of reducing the world carbon foot print, there are costs associated with its utilization. In recent time, electricity from alternative energy sources like wind and solar are not cost competitive with electricity from the conventional power plant. This paper is aimed at investigating the optimum investment in a typical wind farm project using a TSA （time series analysis） alongside simple economic tool, AAP （annual annuity payment） model. This study involves a year round analysis of （8,760h） at different wind farm capacity connected to a 132/33kV DS （distribution system）. It also focused on digressing from the technical and environmental benefits to financial assessment of increasing wind generation capacity in the DS. Indeed, this development presents a risk of investment to the stakeholders which necessitates proper scrutiny and to ensure profitability of the venture. The level of capital cost along with operation and maintenance （OM） costs are either financed by private or public sectors on wind farm with the sole aim of achieving the ROI （return-on-investment）. The results obtained from this study shows the possible ROI is not proportional to the wind capacity invested. Also, a sensitivity analysis conducted revealed the profit derived from wind farm is more responsive to the investment/capital cost and the price at which the electricity is being sold.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2012CB957704) Marine Public Welfare Program of China (Grant No. 201305003)
文摘Runoff series of the Yangtze River presents an intricate variation tendency under the reinforced influence of human activities.The Morlet Wavelet Transform method has been applied to analyze the annual runoff data from 1950 to 2011 at the Yangtze River Estuary.It can clearly reveal the multi-time scales structure,break point,change and distribution of periodic variation in the different time scales of the runoff series.The main conclusions are that:1) Repeated periodic oscillations accompanied by an extremely large fluctuation are presented in the runoff series with an obvious difference between wet and dry years,and the major periods of the time series are about 3,8,16 and 23 years respectively.Among them,the presented maximum periodic oscillation is 23 years scale.2) In the 23-year time scale,the wet periods are 1950-1958,1969-1980 and 1992-2003,and the dry periods are 1959-1968,1981-1991 and 2004-2011.3) It can be predicted from the view of long time scales that the low annual runoff will likely occur in the near future.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91215302)"One-Three-Five" Strategic Planning (wind power prediction) of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) (Grant No. Y267014601)the Strategic Project of Science and Technology of CAS (Grant No. XDA05040301)
文摘Time series of wind speed are composed of large and small ramp structures. Data analysis reveals a power law relation between the linear slope of ramp structures and the time scale. This suggests that these ramp structures of wind speed have a self-similar characteristic. The lower limit of the self-similar scale range was 2 s. The upper limit is unexpectedly large at 27 rain. Data are collected from grassland, city, and lake areas. Although these data have different underlying surfaces, all of them clearly show a power law relation, with slight differences in their power exponents.
文摘Decarbonization of electricity industry for the goal of sustainability success has resulted in large investment in alternative energy sources such as wind, solar, biomass. Although these energy resources are sustainable and have the potential of reducing the world carbon foot print, there are costs associated with its utilization. In recent time, electricity from alternative energy sources like wind and solar are not cost competitive with electricity from the conventional power plant. This paper is aimed at investigating the optimum investment in a typical wind farm project using a TSA （time series analysis） alongside simple economic tool, AAP （annual annuity payment） model. This study involves a year round analysis of （8,760h） at different wind farm capacity connected to a 132/33kV DS （distribution system）. It also focused on digressing from the technical and environmental benefits to financial assessment of increasing wind generation capacity in the DS. Indeed, this development presents a risk of investment to the stakeholders which necessitates proper scrutiny and to ensure profitability of the venture. The level of capital cost along with operation and maintenance （OM） costs are either financed by private or public sectors on wind farm with the sole aim of achieving the ROI （return-on-investment）. The results obtained from this study shows the possible ROI is not proportional to the wind capacity invested. Also, a sensitivity analysis conducted revealed the profit derived from wind farm is more responsive to the investment/capital cost and the price at which the electricity is being sold.
