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时间变动序列预测法的实际运用
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作者 庞晓俊 罗春珠 李玲 《医学动物防制》 2007年第4期254-255,共2页
目的:以统计学为基础,采用时间变动序列预测。方法:对门诊病人数按时间序列建立趋势模型,外推预测下一时间段的就诊情况。结果:该模型能达到较好的拟合效果(0.9962)和预测精度(99.88%)。
关键词 时间变动序列 预测 模型 拟合
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统计数据质量评估的组合模型 被引量:10
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作者 杨海山 《统计与决策》 北大核心 2001年第7期6-7,共2页
关键词 统计数据 质量评估 组合模型 时间序列变动规律 误差控制法 估计区间判断法
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基于ACTS风速预测模型的变电架构灾变特性数值模拟
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作者 裴延学 祝贺 《东北电力大学学报》 2009年第4期55-59,共5页
根据预测理论,提出了ACTS(渐近变动时间序列)风速预测模型,利用已有的风速数据预测了未来时段的风速数据,通过建立变电架构的三维数值模型,对架构进行了风速时程分析。研究了变电架构在预测风速下的动力时程响应特性,得到架构的各项动... 根据预测理论,提出了ACTS(渐近变动时间序列)风速预测模型,利用已有的风速数据预测了未来时段的风速数据,通过建立变电架构的三维数值模型,对架构进行了风速时程分析。研究了变电架构在预测风速下的动力时程响应特性,得到架构的各项动力响应指标,研究成果可为变电架构防风减灾提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 渐近变动时间序列 风速预测 变电架构 灾变特性 时程分析
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The Phase Transition during Post Annealing
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作者 S. T. Nakagawa 《Journal of Physical Science and Application》 2016年第2期1-9,共9页
We have studied why PA (post-annealing) takes a long time to restore damaged crystallinity, which corresponds to repeat 10 10 times of lattice vibrations. Using a MD (molecular dynamics) simulation, we monitored t... We have studied why PA (post-annealing) takes a long time to restore damaged crystallinity, which corresponds to repeat 10 10 times of lattice vibrations. Using a MD (molecular dynamics) simulation, we monitored the time-series of the LRO (long-range order) parameter as LRO pattern, in the case of a type IIa diamond, from the beginning of ion impact by a sub-keV N2 beam implantation to a few nanoseconds, i.e., close to the feasible time limit for MD simulations. Due to the ion impact, the LRO parameter changed gradually from "LRO = 1" (crystal) to "LRO = 0" (amorphous), showing the so-called critical slowing-down phenomenon. However, since PA was started the LRO pattern was not unique. The LRO patterns were grouped into more than three types of phases and the transition between them was also found. From the viewpoint of statistical dynamics, such chaotic variations in the LRO pattern may present that the system is a GCM (globally coupled map) of a complex system in a closed system. A GCM composed of coupled oscillators develops slowly to exhibit several different phases or ‘chaotic itinerancy' over time. Therefore, the long duration required for PA may be attributable to the nature of a complex system. 展开更多
关键词 Globally coupled map complex system applied statistics POST-ANNEALING ion implantation molecular dynamicssimulation long-range-order parameter.
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