河北省可持续发展能力的时间变化分析

可持续发展战略是河北省三大战略之一。结合可持续发展的内涵提出了河北省可持续发展能力评价指标体系 。

科学家个人学术影响力随时间变化的计算方法研究

[目的 /意义]研究如何动态地评价科学家个人学术影响力的方法和探索研究科学家个人学术影响力时序曲线的意义。[方法 /过程]用基于每n年和基于逐年个人发文和引用的学术影响力计算方式,对76名诺贝尔物理学奖获奖者的学术影响力时间变化趋势进行分析,并比较了基于每n年个人发文和引用的学术影响力计算方式下基于传统文献计量学指标和类h指数的特点。[结果 /结论]得出了恰当的个人学术影响力随时间变化的计算方式和分析指标特点。

面向维护的实时软件时间变化敏感点检测

正确的时间属性和行为对于实时软件来说非常关键,然而这却很难得到完全的保障.在实际工业中,实时性错误不仅会在软件的设计开发阶段被引入,在软件的维护阶段,随着软件的演化也同样会引入这种错误.当软件维护人员对系统不够熟悉时,维护阶段引入这些错误的可能性会更大.目前,还没有研究结果可以在软件修改发生之前,通过分析系统的时间关系信息来帮助指导软件维护人员减少或者避免引入时间相关的错误.在这样的背景下,文中提出了一种实际可用的分析途径来解决这一问题,称之为时间变化影响分析.这一解决途径在软件维护人员做出修改之前就可以分析软件内在的时间关系信息,从而帮助维护人员在软件的实际演化前预测可能带来的时间影响.在具体的操作上,可以通过告知软件维护人员程序代码中的某些位置点可能会对整个程序任务的执行时间产生很大的影响,来提醒他们修改这些位置点的代码时应当特别小心.由于这些点对程序任务的执行时间敏感,我们称之为时间变化敏感点.文中通过一种基于扰动的测试实现来检测程序中的时间变化敏感点,通过在程序中插桩不同的代码时延,达到对执行时间的扰动作用.对这些扰动作用下的程序执行时间数据进行统计,得到程序中各个位置点对时间影响的定量度量.对于实际使用的大规模程序,该方法通过集成静态程序分析技术提高吞吐量和减小漏报率.文中对分析途径做了原型实现,并在Mlardalen WCET基准用例集和开源项目Free Lossless Audio Codec(FLAC)上做了实例评估.评估结果展示了该方法的可行性和有效性.

Variations of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Yangtze River Basin under Climate Change Scenarios

In this study, the water balance-based Precipitation-Evapotranspiration-Runoff (PER) method combined with the land surface model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) was used to estimate the spatiotemporal variations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) for two periods, 1982-2005 (baseline) and 2071-2100, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2 in the Yangtze River basin. The results show that the estimated TWS during the baseline period and under the two future climate scenarios have similar seasonal amplitudes of 60-70 mm. The higher values of TWS appear in June during the baseline period and under the B2 scenario, whereas the TWS under A2 shows two peaks in response to the related precipitation pattern. It also shows that the TWS is recharged from February to June during the baseline period, but it is replenished from March to June under the A2 and B2 scenarios. An analysis of the standard derivation of seasonal and interannual TWS time series under the three scenarios demonstrates that the seasonal TWS of the southeastern part of the Yangtze River basin varies remarkably and that the southeastern and central parts of the basin have higher variations in interannual TWS. With respect to the first mode of the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), the inverse-phase change in seasonal TWS mainly appears across the Guizhou-Sichuan-Shaanxi belt, and the entire basin generally represents a synchronous change in interannual TWS. As a whole, the TWS under A2 presents a larger seasonal variation whereas that under B2 displays a greater interannual variation. These results imply that climate change could trigger severe disasters in the southeastern and central parts of the basin.

Runoff Change of Naoli River in Northeast China in 1955–2009 and Its Influencing Factors

Runoff change and trend of the Naoli River Basin were studied through the time series analysis using the data from the hydrological and meteorological stations. Time series of hydrological data were from 1957 to 2009 for Bao′an station, from 1955 to 2009 for Baoqing station, from 1956 to 2009 for Caizuizi station and from 1978 to 2009 for Hongqiling station. The influences of climate change and human activities on runoff change were investigated, and the causes of hydrological regime change were revealed. The seasonal runoff distribution of the Naoli River was extremely uneven, and the annual change was great. Overall, the annual runoff showed a significant decreasing trend. The annual runoff of Bao′an, Baoqing, and Caizuizi stations in 2009 decreased by 64.1%, 76.3%, and 84.3%, respectively, compared with their beginning data recorded. The wet and dry years of the Naoli River have changed in the study period. The frequency of wet year occurrence decreased and lasted longer, whereas that of dry year occurrence increased. The frequency of dry year occurrence increased from 25.0%-27.8% to 83.9%-87.5%. The years before the 1970s were mostly wet, whereas those after the 1970s were mostly dry. Precipitation reduction and land use changes contributed to the decrease in annual runoff. Rising temperature and water project construction have also contributed important effects on the runoff change of the Naoli River.

Long Term Sea Level Change and Water Mass Balance in the South China Sea

Sea level anomalies observed by altimeter during the 1993-2006 period, thermosteric sea level anomalies estimated by using subsurface temperature data produced by Ishii and SODA reanalysis data, tide gauge records and HOAPS freshwater flux data were analyzed to investigate the long term sea level change and the water mass balance in the South China Sea, The altime- ter-observed sea level showed a rising rate of （3.5±0.9）mmyr-1 during the period 1993-2006, but this figure was considered to have been highly distorted by the relatively short time interval and the large inter-decadal variability, which apparently exists in both the thermosteric sea level and the observed sea level. Long term thermosteric sea level from 1945 to 2004 gave a rising rate of 0.15±0.06 mmyr-1. Tide gauge＇data revealed this discrepancy and the regional distributions of the sea-level trends. Both the ＇real＇ and the ther- mosteric sea level showed a good correspondence to ENSO： decreasing during El Nino years and increasing during La Nina years. Amplitude and phase differences between the ＇real＇ sea level and the thermosteic sea level were substantially revealed on both sea- sonal and interannual time scales. As one of the possible factors, the freshwater flux might play an important role in balancing the water mass.

Operation safety risk analysis method of hydropower project considering time-dependent effect

In order to consider the time-dependent characteristic of risk factors of hydropower project,the method of stochastic process simulating structure resistance and load effect is adopted.On the basis of analyzing the structure characteristics and mode of operation,the operation safety risk rate assessment model of hydropower project is established on the comprehensive application of the improved analytic hierarchy process,the time-dependent reliability theory and the risk rate threshold.A scheme to demonstrate the time-dependent risk rate assessment method for an example of the earth-rock dam is particularly implemented by the proposed approach.The example shows that operation safety risk rate is closely related to both the service period and design standard;considering the effect of time-dependent,the risk rate increases with time and the intersection of them reflects the technical service life of structures.It could provide scientific basis for the operation safety and risk decision of the hydropower project by predicting the trend of risk rate via this model.

Change Point Detection and Trend Analysis for Time Series

Trend analysis and change point detection in a time series are frequent analysis tools.Change point detection is the identification of abrupt variation in the process behaviour due to natural or artificial changes,whereas trend can be defined as estimation of gradual departure from past norms.We analyze the time series data in the presence of trend,using Cox-Stuart methods together with the change point algorithms.We applied the methods to the nearsurface wind speed time series for Australia as an example.The trends in near-surface wind speeds for Australia have been investigated based upon our newly developed wind speed datasets,which were constructed by blending observational data collected at various heights using local surface roughness information.The trend in wind speed at 10 m is generally increasing while at 2 m it tends to be decreasing.Significance testing,change point analysis and manual inspection of records indicate several factors may be contributing to the discrepancy,such as systematic biases accompanying instrument changes,random data errors(e.g.accumulation day error)and data sampling issues.Homogenization technique and multiple-period trend analysis based upon change point detections have thus been employed to clarify the source of the inconsistencies in wind speed trends.

Numerical Simulation of the Spreading Dynamic Responses of the Multibody System with a Floating Base

To simulate the dynamic responses of the multibody system with a floating base when the upper parts spread with a certain sequence and relative speed, the homogeneous matrix method is employed to model and simulate a four-body system with a floating base and the motions are analyzed when the upper parts are spread sequentially or synchronously. The rolling, swaying and heaving temporal variations are obtained when the multibody system is under the conditions of the static water along with the wave loads and the mean wind loads or the single pulse wind loads, respectively. The moment variations of each joint under the single pulse wind load are also gained. The numerical results showed that the swaying of the floating base is almost not influenced by the spreading time or form when the upper parts spread sequentially or synchronously, while the rolling and the heaving mainly depend on the spreading time and forms. The swaying and heaving motions are influenced significantly by the mean wind loads. The single pulse wind load also has influences on the dynamic responses. The torque of joint 3 and joint 4 in the single pulse wind environment may be twice that in the windless environment when the system spreads with 60 s duration.

Spatiotemporal spectrum and momentum flux of the stratospheric gravity waves generated by a typhoon

The simulation results of Typhoon Matsa （2005） by using the Weather Research and Forecasting （WRF） model show that pro- nounced stratospheric gravity waves （GWs） are generated in the vicinity of the typhoon. Using the model output, we investi- gate the spatial structures and the temporal variations of the GWs through a three dimensional （3-d） spectral analysis, i.e. the spectrum with respect to two horizontal wavenumbers and frequency. We further derive the momentum flux carried by the GWs. Spectral investigation results show that the power spectral density （PSD） of the GWs exhibits a single-peaked spectrum, which consists primarily of a distinct spectrum at horizontal wavelength of -1000 km, time period of 12-18 h, and vertical wavelength of 7-9 kin. This spectrum is different from the spectra of GWs generated by deep convections disclosed by the previous researches. Both the PSD and momentum flux spectrum are prominent in positive kh portion, which is consistent with the fact that the GWs propagate in the upstream of mean flow. Large momentum flux is found to be associated with the GWs, and the net zonal momentum flux is 0.7845×10-3 Pa at 20 km height, which can account for -26% of the momentum flux that is required in driving the QBO phenomenon.

Seismic safety of arch dams with aging effects

Arch dams suffer time-varying external loadings and harsh environment that harm their physical properties. With the aging of such dams, damage accumulates and concrete degradation inevitably appears. In this paper, a model is proposed for simulating concrete degradation with aging because of chemo-mechanical damage. The seismic response of an arch dam with aging effects is analyzed using the proposed model. The results show that the damage caused by the aging of arch dams may result in an increase in tensile cantilever stresses during earthquakes. Meanwhile, the dynamic displacement and joint opening also clearly increase in comparison with those without damage. Thus, the seismic safety of arch dams is reduced by aging effects.