Analyzing time series characteristics of red tide is the basis of disaster prevention and mitigation,which is very important to red tide prediction.There are trend comp onents and periodic components in annual time se...Analyzing time series characteristics of red tide is the basis of disaster prevention and mitigation,which is very important to red tide prediction.There are trend comp onents and periodic components in annual time series of occurrence freque ncy and area of red tides,so Gray-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model(GPECM)is used to extract these components.The fitting degree of occurrence frequency and area can reach 95.20% and 95.24%,respectively.The performance of GPECM is better than Gray Model,Fourier Series Extension Model,and Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Model in model stability.Consequently,it is used to forecast the occurrence frequency and area in 2020 and 2021,and results show that the annual frequency of red tides in 2020 and 2021 can rise to 39 and 41,respectively,and that the annual occurrence area of red tides can rise to 3168 km^(2),which is about 59% more than last year.In 2021,it can fall to 1901 km^(2).展开更多
Based on the theory of finite time thermodynamics, a subcritical simple irreversible organic Rankine cycle(SSIORC) model considering heat transfer loss and internal irreversible losses is established in this paper. Th...Based on the theory of finite time thermodynamics, a subcritical simple irreversible organic Rankine cycle(SSIORC) model considering heat transfer loss and internal irreversible losses is established in this paper. The total heat transfer surface area is taken as a constraint, and R245fa is adopted as working fluid of the cycle in the performance optimization. The evaporator heat transfer surface area and mass flow rate of the working fluid are optimized to obtain the maximum power output and thermal efficiency of the SSIORC, respectively. In addition, the influences of the internal irreversibilities on the optimal performances are also investigated. The results show that when the evaporator heat transfer surface area is varied, the relationship between power output and thermal efficiency is a loop-shaped curve, and there exist maximum power output and thermal efficiency points, respectively. However, the two maximum points are very close to each other. When the mass flow rate of the working fluid is varied, the relationship between power output and thermal efficiency is a parabolic-like curve. With the decreases of expander and pump irreversible losses, the performances of the irreversible SSORC are close to those of the endoreversible SSORC with the only loss of heat transfer loss.展开更多
文摘Analyzing time series characteristics of red tide is the basis of disaster prevention and mitigation,which is very important to red tide prediction.There are trend comp onents and periodic components in annual time series of occurrence freque ncy and area of red tides,so Gray-Periodic Extensional Combinatorial Model(GPECM)is used to extract these components.The fitting degree of occurrence frequency and area can reach 95.20% and 95.24%,respectively.The performance of GPECM is better than Gray Model,Fourier Series Extension Model,and Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Model in model stability.Consequently,it is used to forecast the occurrence frequency and area in 2020 and 2021,and results show that the annual frequency of red tides in 2020 and 2021 can rise to 39 and 41,respectively,and that the annual occurrence area of red tides can rise to 3168 km^(2),which is about 59% more than last year.In 2021,it can fall to 1901 km^(2).
基金supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China (Project No. 2017YFB0603503)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Project No. 51576207)
文摘Based on the theory of finite time thermodynamics, a subcritical simple irreversible organic Rankine cycle(SSIORC) model considering heat transfer loss and internal irreversible losses is established in this paper. The total heat transfer surface area is taken as a constraint, and R245fa is adopted as working fluid of the cycle in the performance optimization. The evaporator heat transfer surface area and mass flow rate of the working fluid are optimized to obtain the maximum power output and thermal efficiency of the SSIORC, respectively. In addition, the influences of the internal irreversibilities on the optimal performances are also investigated. The results show that when the evaporator heat transfer surface area is varied, the relationship between power output and thermal efficiency is a loop-shaped curve, and there exist maximum power output and thermal efficiency points, respectively. However, the two maximum points are very close to each other. When the mass flow rate of the working fluid is varied, the relationship between power output and thermal efficiency is a parabolic-like curve. With the decreases of expander and pump irreversible losses, the performances of the irreversible SSORC are close to those of the endoreversible SSORC with the only loss of heat transfer loss.
