Based on the data from gauging stations, the changes in water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe （Yellow） River were analyzed by using the empirical mode decomposition （EMD） method. The results show that t...Based on the data from gauging stations, the changes in water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe （Yellow） River were analyzed by using the empirical mode decomposition （EMD） method. The results show that the periodic oscillation of water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe River occurs at the interannual, decadal, and multi-decadal scales, caused by the periodic oscillations of precipitation, and E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillation （ENSO） af- fects water discharge by influencing precipitation distribution and contributes to periodic varations in precipitation and water discharge at interannual timescale. The water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe River have decreased since the 1960s under the influence of precipitation and huamn activities, and human activities attribute more than precipitation to the reduction in the water discharge and sediment load, furthermore, water abstraction and water-soil conservation practices are the main causes of the decrease in water discharge and sediment load, respectively. The reduction in sediment load has directly impacted on the lower reaches of the Huanghe River and the river delta, causing considerable erosion of the river channel in the lower reaches since the 1970s along with River Delta changing siltation into erosion around 2000.展开更多
The probability distribution analysis is per-formed for multi-timescale aerosol optical depth (AOD) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 data.The maximum likelihood estimation is employed to determine the...The probability distribution analysis is per-formed for multi-timescale aerosol optical depth (AOD) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 data.The maximum likelihood estimation is employed to determine the best-fit probability density function (PDF),and the statement that the fitting Weibull distribution will be light-tailed is proved true for these AOD samples.The best-fit PDF results for multi-site data show that the PDF of AOD samples with longer timescale in most sites tends to be stably represented by lognormal distribution,while Weibull distribution is a better fit for AOD samples with short timescales.The reason for this difference is ana-lyzed through tail characteristics of the two distributions,and an indicator for the selection between Weibull and lognormal distributions is suggested and validated.The result of this research is helpful for determining the most accurate AOD statistics for a given site and a given time-scale and for validating the retrieved AOD through its PDF.展开更多
Price volatility in stock market brings potential profile positions to the traders. How to predict the direction of the stock market or stock price becomes the primary job for traders＇ trading model. We are looking f...Price volatility in stock market brings potential profile positions to the traders. How to predict the direction of the stock market or stock price becomes the primary job for traders＇ trading model. We are looking for the direction of the market in a given timeframe. High-frequency traders will consider the potential profile-out position in millisecond level. Long-term holder will look into month time scale. For most of average traders, the ideal timeframe will be on daily base. In this paper, for a non-news trading day, the author will introduce statistics method to predict the stock prices and bid-ask spread for day trading.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of Major State Basic Research Development Program of China(No.2010CB951202)Ocean Public Welfare Scientific Research Project,State Oceanic Administration of the People's Republic of China(No.200805063)
文摘Based on the data from gauging stations, the changes in water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe （Yellow） River were analyzed by using the empirical mode decomposition （EMD） method. The results show that the periodic oscillation of water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe River occurs at the interannual, decadal, and multi-decadal scales, caused by the periodic oscillations of precipitation, and E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillation （ENSO） af- fects water discharge by influencing precipitation distribution and contributes to periodic varations in precipitation and water discharge at interannual timescale. The water discharge and sediment load of the Huanghe River have decreased since the 1960s under the influence of precipitation and huamn activities, and human activities attribute more than precipitation to the reduction in the water discharge and sediment load, furthermore, water abstraction and water-soil conservation practices are the main causes of the decrease in water discharge and sediment load, respectively. The reduction in sediment load has directly impacted on the lower reaches of the Huanghe River and the river delta, causing considerable erosion of the river channel in the lower reaches since the 1970s along with River Delta changing siltation into erosion around 2000.
基金supported by funds from the Chinese Global Change Research Program (Grant No.2010CB951804)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40830103)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No.20100480436)
文摘The probability distribution analysis is per-formed for multi-timescale aerosol optical depth (AOD) using AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) level 2.0 data.The maximum likelihood estimation is employed to determine the best-fit probability density function (PDF),and the statement that the fitting Weibull distribution will be light-tailed is proved true for these AOD samples.The best-fit PDF results for multi-site data show that the PDF of AOD samples with longer timescale in most sites tends to be stably represented by lognormal distribution,while Weibull distribution is a better fit for AOD samples with short timescales.The reason for this difference is ana-lyzed through tail characteristics of the two distributions,and an indicator for the selection between Weibull and lognormal distributions is suggested and validated.The result of this research is helpful for determining the most accurate AOD statistics for a given site and a given time-scale and for validating the retrieved AOD through its PDF.
文摘Price volatility in stock market brings potential profile positions to the traders. How to predict the direction of the stock market or stock price becomes the primary job for traders＇ trading model. We are looking for the direction of the market in a given timeframe. High-frequency traders will consider the potential profile-out position in millisecond level. Long-term holder will look into month time scale. For most of average traders, the ideal timeframe will be on daily base. In this paper, for a non-news trading day, the author will introduce statistics method to predict the stock prices and bid-ask spread for day trading.
