The ocean’s thermal inertia is a major contributor to irreversible ocean changes exceeding time scales that matter to human society.This fact is a challenge to societies as they prepare for the consequences of climat...The ocean’s thermal inertia is a major contributor to irreversible ocean changes exceeding time scales that matter to human society.This fact is a challenge to societies as they prepare for the consequences of climate change,especially with respect to the ocean.Here the authors review the requirements for human actions from the ocean’s perspective.In the near term(∼2030),goals such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)will be critical.Over longer times(∼2050–2060 and beyond),global carbon neutrality targets may be met as countries continue to work toward reducing emissions.Both adaptation and mitigation plans need to be fully implemented in the interim,and the Global Ocean Observation System should be sustained so that changes can be continuously monitored.In the longer-term(after∼2060),slow emerging changes such as deep ocean warming and sea level rise are committed to continue even in the scenario where net zero emissions are reached.Thus,climate actions have to extend to time scales of hundreds of years.At these time scales,preparation for“high impact,low probability”risks—such as an abrupt showdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,ecosystem change,or irreversible ice sheet loss—should be fully integrated into long-term planning.展开更多
Sea surface height (SSH) variability in the Mindanao Dome (MD) region is found to be one of the strong variations in the northern Pacific. It is only weaker than that in the Kuroshio Extension area, and is comparable ...Sea surface height (SSH) variability in the Mindanao Dome (MD) region is found to be one of the strong variations in the northern Pacific. It is only weaker than that in the Kuroshio Extension area, and is comparable to that in the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent region. Based on a 1.5-layer reduced gravity model, we analyzed SSH variations in this region and their responses to northern tropical Pacific winds. The average SSH anomaly in the region varies mainly on a seasonal scale, with significant periods of 0.5 and 1 year, ENSO time scale2-7years, and time scale in excess of 8 years. Annual and long-term variabilities are comparably stronger. These variations are essentially a response to the northern tropical Pacific winds. On seasonal and ENSO time scales, they are mainly caused by wind anomalies east of the region, which generate westward-propagating, long Rossby waves. On time scales longer than 8 years, they are mostly induced by local Ekman pumping. Long-term SSH variations in the MD region and their responses to local winds are examined and discussed for the first time .展开更多
Empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis reveals a co-variability of Sea surface temperatures （SSTs） in the Southern Hemisphere （0°-60°S）. In the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans, there is a subtro...Empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis reveals a co-variability of Sea surface temperatures （SSTs） in the Southern Hemisphere （0°-60°S）. In the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans, there is a subtropical dipole pattern slanted in the southwest-northeast direction. In the South Pacific Ocean, a meridional tripole structure emerges, whose middle pole co-varies with the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans and is used in this study to track subtropical Pacific variability. The South Indian and Atlantic Ocean dipoles and the subtropical Pacific variability are phase-locked in austral summer. On the inter-decadal time scales, the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans weaken in amplitude after 1979/1980. No such weakening is found in the subtropical South Pacific Ocean. Interestingly, despite the reduced amplitude, the correlation of the Indian Ocean and Atlantic dipoles with E1 Nino and Southern Oscillation （ENSO） are enhanced after 1979/1980. The same increase in correlation is found for subtropical South Pacific variability after 1979/1980. These inter-decadal modulations imply that the Southern Hemisphere participates in part of the climate shift in the late 1970s. The correlation between Southern Hemisphere SST and ENSO reduces after 2000.展开更多
Based on observed temperature data since the 1950s, long-term variability of the summer sharp thermocline in the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass （YSCWM） and East China Sea Cold Eddy （ECSCE） areas is examined. Relations...Based on observed temperature data since the 1950s, long-term variability of the summer sharp thermocline in the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass （YSCWM） and East China Sea Cold Eddy （ECSCE） areas is examined. Relationships between the thermocline and atmospheric and oceanic forcing were investigated using multiyear wind, Kuroshio discharge and air temperature data. Results show that： 1） In the YSCWM area, thermocline strength shows about 4-year and 16-year period oscillations. There is high correlation between summer thermocline strength and local atmospheric temperature in summer and the previous winter; 2） In the ECSCE area, interannual oscillation of thermocline strength with about a 4-year period （stronger in El Nifio years） is strongly correlated with that of local wind stress. A transition from weak to strong thermocline during the mid 1970s is consistent with a 1976/1977 climate shift and Kuroshio volume transport; 3） Long-term changes of the thermocline in both regions are mainly determined by deep layer water, especially on the decadal timescale. However, surface water can modify the thermocline on an interannual timescale in the YSCWM area.展开更多
The climate modulation on the sea surface height （SSH） in China seas is investigated using a China Ocean Reanalysis （CORA） dataset from 1958-2008. The dataset is constructed by assimilating the temperature/salinit...The climate modulation on the sea surface height （SSH） in China seas is investigated using a China Ocean Reanalysis （CORA） dataset from 1958-2008. The dataset is constructed by assimilating the temperature/salinity profiles derived from the satellite altimetry data and historical observational temperature/salinity profiles. Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF）, the CORA sea surface height anomaly （SSHa） is decomposed, and the interannual and decadal variability of the first three leading modes are analyzed. On the interannual timescale, the first principal component （PC1） is significant positively correlated with the E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillation （ENSO）. On the decadal timescale, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation （NPGO） has significant negative correlation with PC 1 whereas Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） is in phase with PC3. Analysis shows that the decadal variability of SSH is mainly modulated by the wind stress curl variability related to the NPGO and PDO. In addition, the effect of net heat flux associated to the NPGO and PDO on SSH is also investigated, with net heat flux variability in the Luzon strait and tropic Pacific found to influence the decadal variability of SSH.展开更多
In this study, three high frequent occurrence regions of tropical cyclones(TCs), i.e., the northern South China Sea(the region S), the south Philippine Sea(the region P) and the region east of Taiwan Island(the region...In this study, three high frequent occurrence regions of tropical cyclones(TCs), i.e., the northern South China Sea(the region S), the south Philippine Sea(the region P) and the region east of Taiwan Island(the region E), are defined with frequency of TC's occurrence at each grid for a 45-year period(1965–2009), where the frequency of occurrence(FO) of TCs is triple the mean value of the whole western North Pacific. Over the region S, there are decreasing trends in the FO of TCs, the number of TCs' tracks going though this region and the number of TCs' genesis in this region. Over the region P, the FO and tracks demonstrate decadal variation with periods of 10–12 year, while over the region E, a significant 4–5 years' oscillation appears in both FO and tracks. It is demonstrated that the differences of TCs' variation in these three different regions are mainly caused by the variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) at different time scales. The westward shift of WPSH is responsible for the northwesterly anomaly over the region S which inhibits westward TC movement into the region S. On the decadal timescale, the WPSH stretches northwestward because of the anomalous anticyclone over the northwestern part of the region P, and steers more TCs reaching the region P in the greater FO years of the region P. The retreating of the WPSH on the interannual time scale is the main reason for the FO's oscillation over the region E.展开更多
Sea level anomalies observed by altimeter during the 1993-2006 period, thermosteric sea level anomalies estimated by using subsurface temperature data produced by Ishii and SODA reanalysis data, tide gauge records and...Sea level anomalies observed by altimeter during the 1993-2006 period, thermosteric sea level anomalies estimated by using subsurface temperature data produced by Ishii and SODA reanalysis data, tide gauge records and HOAPS freshwater flux data were analyzed to investigate the long term sea level change and the water mass balance in the South China Sea, The altime- ter-observed sea level showed a rising rate of （3.5±0.9）mmyr-1 during the period 1993-2006, but this figure was considered to have been highly distorted by the relatively short time interval and the large inter-decadal variability, which apparently exists in both the thermosteric sea level and the observed sea level. Long term thermosteric sea level from 1945 to 2004 gave a rising rate of 0.15±0.06 mmyr-1. Tide gauge＇data revealed this discrepancy and the regional distributions of the sea-level trends. Both the ＇real＇ and the ther- mosteric sea level showed a good correspondence to ENSO： decreasing during El Nino years and increasing during La Nina years. Amplitude and phase differences between the ＇real＇ sea level and the thermosteic sea level were substantially revealed on both sea- sonal and interannual time scales. As one of the possible factors, the freshwater flux might play an important role in balancing the water mass.展开更多
Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall （ISMR） exhibits a prominent inter-annual variability known as troposphere biennial oscillation.A season of deficient June to September monsoon rainfall in India is followed by warm sea...Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall （ISMR） exhibits a prominent inter-annual variability known as troposphere biennial oscillation.A season of deficient June to September monsoon rainfall in India is followed by warm sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean and cold SST anomalies over the westem Pacific Ocean.These anomalies persist until the following monsoon,which yields normal or excessive rainfall.Monsoon rainfall in India has shown decadal variability in the form of 30 year epochs of alternately occurring frequent and infrequent drought monsoons since 1841,when rainfall measurements began in India.Decadal oscillations of monsoon rainfall and the well known decadal oscillations in SSTs of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have the same period of approximately 60 years and nearly the same temporal phase.In both of these variabilities,anomalies in monsoon heat source,such as deep convection,and middle latitude westerlies of the upper troposphere over south Asia have prominent roles.展开更多
基金L.Cheng acknowledges financial supports from the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant munber XDB42040402]the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 42122046 and 42076202]The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
文摘The ocean’s thermal inertia is a major contributor to irreversible ocean changes exceeding time scales that matter to human society.This fact is a challenge to societies as they prepare for the consequences of climate change,especially with respect to the ocean.Here the authors review the requirements for human actions from the ocean’s perspective.In the near term(∼2030),goals such as the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)will be critical.Over longer times(∼2050–2060 and beyond),global carbon neutrality targets may be met as countries continue to work toward reducing emissions.Both adaptation and mitigation plans need to be fully implemented in the interim,and the Global Ocean Observation System should be sustained so that changes can be continuously monitored.In the longer-term(after∼2060),slow emerging changes such as deep ocean warming and sea level rise are committed to continue even in the scenario where net zero emissions are reached.Thus,climate actions have to extend to time scales of hundreds of years.At these time scales,preparation for“high impact,low probability”risks—such as an abrupt showdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation,ecosystem change,or irreversible ice sheet loss—should be fully integrated into long-term planning.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40890151)the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)(No.2012CB417401)
文摘Sea surface height (SSH) variability in the Mindanao Dome (MD) region is found to be one of the strong variations in the northern Pacific. It is only weaker than that in the Kuroshio Extension area, and is comparable to that in the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent region. Based on a 1.5-layer reduced gravity model, we analyzed SSH variations in this region and their responses to northern tropical Pacific winds. The average SSH anomaly in the region varies mainly on a seasonal scale, with significant periods of 0.5 and 1 year, ENSO time scale2-7years, and time scale in excess of 8 years. Annual and long-term variabilities are comparably stronger. These variations are essentially a response to the northern tropical Pacific winds. On seasonal and ENSO time scales, they are mainly caused by wind anomalies east of the region, which generate westward-propagating, long Rossby waves. On time scales longer than 8 years, they are mostly induced by local Ekman pumping. Long-term SSH variations in the MD region and their responses to local winds are examined and discussed for the first time .
基金jointly supported by the National Basic Research Program(2012CB955603,2010CB950302)National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(No.2010AA012304)the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(SQ201006 and XDA05090404)
文摘Empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis reveals a co-variability of Sea surface temperatures （SSTs） in the Southern Hemisphere （0°-60°S）. In the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans, there is a subtropical dipole pattern slanted in the southwest-northeast direction. In the South Pacific Ocean, a meridional tripole structure emerges, whose middle pole co-varies with the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans and is used in this study to track subtropical Pacific variability. The South Indian and Atlantic Ocean dipoles and the subtropical Pacific variability are phase-locked in austral summer. On the inter-decadal time scales, the dipoles in the South Indian and Atlantic Oceans weaken in amplitude after 1979/1980. No such weakening is found in the subtropical South Pacific Ocean. Interestingly, despite the reduced amplitude, the correlation of the Indian Ocean and Atlantic dipoles with E1 Nino and Southern Oscillation （ENSO） are enhanced after 1979/1980. The same increase in correlation is found for subtropical South Pacific variability after 1979/1980. These inter-decadal modulations imply that the Southern Hemisphere participates in part of the climate shift in the late 1970s. The correlation between Southern Hemisphere SST and ENSO reduces after 2000.
基金Supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-Q11-02)the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. XDA05090404)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41106026)
文摘Based on observed temperature data since the 1950s, long-term variability of the summer sharp thermocline in the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass （YSCWM） and East China Sea Cold Eddy （ECSCE） areas is examined. Relationships between the thermocline and atmospheric and oceanic forcing were investigated using multiyear wind, Kuroshio discharge and air temperature data. Results show that： 1） In the YSCWM area, thermocline strength shows about 4-year and 16-year period oscillations. There is high correlation between summer thermocline strength and local atmospheric temperature in summer and the previous winter; 2） In the ECSCE area, interannual oscillation of thermocline strength with about a 4-year period （stronger in El Nifio years） is strongly correlated with that of local wind stress. A transition from weak to strong thermocline during the mid 1970s is consistent with a 1976/1977 climate shift and Kuroshio volume transport; 3） Long-term changes of the thermocline in both regions are mainly determined by deep layer water, especially on the decadal timescale. However, surface water can modify the thermocline on an interannual timescale in the YSCWM area.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2013CB430304)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41176003,41206178,41376013,41376015,41306006)+1 种基金the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(No.2013AA09A505)the Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction of China(No.GASI-01-01-12)
文摘The climate modulation on the sea surface height （SSH） in China seas is investigated using a China Ocean Reanalysis （CORA） dataset from 1958-2008. The dataset is constructed by assimilating the temperature/salinity profiles derived from the satellite altimetry data and historical observational temperature/salinity profiles. Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF）, the CORA sea surface height anomaly （SSHa） is decomposed, and the interannual and decadal variability of the first three leading modes are analyzed. On the interannual timescale, the first principal component （PC1） is significant positively correlated with the E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillation （ENSO）. On the decadal timescale, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation （NPGO） has significant negative correlation with PC 1 whereas Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） is in phase with PC3. Analysis shows that the decadal variability of SSH is mainly modulated by the wind stress curl variability related to the NPGO and PDO. In addition, the effect of net heat flux associated to the NPGO and PDO on SSH is also investigated, with net heat flux variability in the Luzon strait and tropic Pacific found to influence the decadal variability of SSH.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos. 41106018, 40975038)Program 973 (Nos. 2012CB417402, 2010CB950402, 2012CB955604)
文摘In this study, three high frequent occurrence regions of tropical cyclones(TCs), i.e., the northern South China Sea(the region S), the south Philippine Sea(the region P) and the region east of Taiwan Island(the region E), are defined with frequency of TC's occurrence at each grid for a 45-year period(1965–2009), where the frequency of occurrence(FO) of TCs is triple the mean value of the whole western North Pacific. Over the region S, there are decreasing trends in the FO of TCs, the number of TCs' tracks going though this region and the number of TCs' genesis in this region. Over the region P, the FO and tracks demonstrate decadal variation with periods of 10–12 year, while over the region E, a significant 4–5 years' oscillation appears in both FO and tracks. It is demonstrated that the differences of TCs' variation in these three different regions are mainly caused by the variation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High(WPSH) at different time scales. The westward shift of WPSH is responsible for the northwesterly anomaly over the region S which inhibits westward TC movement into the region S. On the decadal timescale, the WPSH stretches northwestward because of the anomalous anticyclone over the northwestern part of the region P, and steers more TCs reaching the region P in the greater FO years of the region P. The retreating of the WPSH on the interannual time scale is the main reason for the FO's oscillation over the region E.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China through Grant No. 973-2007CB- 411807
文摘Sea level anomalies observed by altimeter during the 1993-2006 period, thermosteric sea level anomalies estimated by using subsurface temperature data produced by Ishii and SODA reanalysis data, tide gauge records and HOAPS freshwater flux data were analyzed to investigate the long term sea level change and the water mass balance in the South China Sea, The altime- ter-observed sea level showed a rising rate of （3.5±0.9）mmyr-1 during the period 1993-2006, but this figure was considered to have been highly distorted by the relatively short time interval and the large inter-decadal variability, which apparently exists in both the thermosteric sea level and the observed sea level. Long term thermosteric sea level from 1945 to 2004 gave a rising rate of 0.15±0.06 mmyr-1. Tide gauge＇data revealed this discrepancy and the regional distributions of the sea-level trends. Both the ＇real＇ and the ther- mosteric sea level showed a good correspondence to ENSO： decreasing during El Nino years and increasing during La Nina years. Amplitude and phase differences between the ＇real＇ sea level and the thermosteic sea level were substantially revealed on both sea- sonal and interannual time scales. As one of the possible factors, the freshwater flux might play an important role in balancing the water mass.
基金the European Commission(Project INDO-MARECLIM)the Norwegian Research Council(Project INDIA-CLIM)for providing financial support for this study
文摘Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall （ISMR） exhibits a prominent inter-annual variability known as troposphere biennial oscillation.A season of deficient June to September monsoon rainfall in India is followed by warm sea surface temperature （SST） anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean and cold SST anomalies over the westem Pacific Ocean.These anomalies persist until the following monsoon,which yields normal or excessive rainfall.Monsoon rainfall in India has shown decadal variability in the form of 30 year epochs of alternately occurring frequent and infrequent drought monsoons since 1841,when rainfall measurements began in India.Decadal oscillations of monsoon rainfall and the well known decadal oscillations in SSTs of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have the same period of approximately 60 years and nearly the same temporal phase.In both of these variabilities,anomalies in monsoon heat source,such as deep convection,and middle latitude westerlies of the upper troposphere over south Asia have prominent roles.
