基于马氏DTW时段划分和FCPSOGSA算法的配电网动态重构

针对配电网重构过程中由于用户侧负荷时变性导致难以划分重构时段的问题,选取马氏DTW距离作为度量指标,构建了减小线路总体损耗、减小电压偏移的多目标优化数学模型。从提高算法收敛效率的角度,对传统粒子群算法进行了改进,运用分数阶微积分的数学方法,提出了一种更快速求解配电网重构的改进粒子群算法(Fractional Calculus PSOGSA),旨在提升算法的收敛特性和所有过去事件的记忆效应。在IEEE33节点系统的基础上构建了1天的负荷数据并进行重构求解,验证了所提方法的有效性。

MULTIVARIATE ABSOLUTE DEGREE OF GREY INCIDENCE BASED ON DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS OF POINTS

The analysis result of absolute degree of grey incidence for multivariate time series is often inconsistent with the qualitative analysis. To overcome this shortage, a multivariate absolute degree of grey incidence based on distribution characteristics of points is proposed. Based on the geometric description of multivariate time se- ries, the neighborhood extrema are extracted in the different regions, and a characteristic point set is constructed. Then according to the distribution of the characteristic point set, a characteristic point sequence reflecting the ge- ometric features of multivariate time series is obtained. The incidence analysis between multivariate time series is transformed into the relational analysis between characteristic point sequences, and a grey incidence model is established. The model possesses the properties of translational invariance, transpose and rank transform invari- ance, and satisfies the grey incidence analysis axioms. Finally, two cases are studied and the results prove the ef- fectiveness of the model.

柔性接触网线夹故障诊断方法研究

牵引供电系统中列车运输能力和安全性很大程度上依赖柔性接触网(overhead contact system,OCS)线夹的工作状态,而接触网线夹极易出现轻微松动现象,线夹松动问题的显著特征是其温度的变化。由于受到远距离测量、环境因素的影响,传统的测温信号处理方法已基本失效,结合经验聚类和时间序列相似性度量的特征提取方法可以有效地确定架空接触网裸导体(bare conductors,BC)的热健康状况,实现对热状态的诊断。为了消除测量过程中的大量干扰,基于点密度函数加权(Point density function weighting,PDFW)原理对数据进行分析,然后采用大数据聚类方法计算采样数据、正常数据和历史故障数据的相对邻近度,并采用时间序列相似性度量方法获取隐患设备的预测故障发展时间。实验表明,该方法能够准确识别裸导体的热健康状况,概念清晰,算法简单。

Identifying Similar Operation Scenes for Busy Area Sector Dynamic Management

Air traffic controllers face challenging initiatives due to uncertainty in air traffic.One way to support their initiatives is to identify similar operation scenes.Based on the operation characteristics of typical busy area control airspace,an complexity measurement indicator system is established.We find that operation in area sector is characterized by aggregation and continuity,and that dimensionality and information redundancy reduction are feasible for dynamic operation data base on principle components.Using principle components,discrete features and time series features are constructed.Based on Gaussian kernel function,Euclidean distance and dynamic time warping(DTW)are used to measure the similarity of the features.Then the matrices of similarity are input in Spectral Clustering.The clustering results show that similar scenes of trend are not ideal and similar scenes of modes are good base on the indicator system.Finally,actual vertical operation decisions for area sector and results of identification are compared,which are visualized by metric multidimensional scaling(MDS)plots.We find that identification results can well reflect the operation at peak hours,but controllers make different decisions under the similar conditions before dawn.The compliance rate of busy operation mode and division decisions at peak hours is 96.7%.The results also show subjectivity of actual operation and objectivity of identification.In most scenes,we observe that similar air traffic activities provide regularity for initiatives,validating the potential of this approach for initiatives and other artificial intelligence support.

Pattern recognition and prediction study of rock burst based on neural network

Many monitoring measures were used in the production field for predicting rockburst.However, predicting rock burst according to complicated observation data is alwaysa pressing problem in this research field.Though the critical value method gets extensiveapplication in practice, it stresses only on the superficial change of data and overlooks alot of features of rock burst and useful information that is concealed and hidden in the observationtime series.Pattern recognition extracts the feature value of time domain, frequencydomain and wavelet domain in observation time series to form Multi-Feature vectors,using Euclidean distance measure as the separable criterion between the same typeand different type to compress and transform feature vectors.It applies neural network asa tool to recognize the danger of rock burst, and uses feature vectors being compressedto carry out training and studying.It is proved by test samples that predicting precisionshould be prior to such traditional predicting methods as pattern recognition and critical indicatormethod.

Wavelet matrix transform for time-series similarity measurement

A time-series similarity measurement method based on wavelet and matrix transform was proposed,and its anti-noise ability,sensitivity and accuracy were discussed. The time-series sequences were compressed into wavelet subspace,and sample feature vector and orthogonal basics of sample time-series sequences were obtained by K-L transform. Then the inner product transform was carried out to project analyzed time-series sequence into orthogonal basics to gain analyzed feature vectors. The similarity was calculated between sample feature vector and analyzed feature vector by the Euclid distance. Taking fault wave of power electronic devices for example,the experimental results show that the proposed method has low dimension of feature vector,the anti-noise ability of proposed method is 30 times as large as that of plain wavelet method,the sensitivity of proposed method is 1/3 as large as that of plain wavelet method,and the accuracy of proposed method is higher than that of the wavelet singular value decomposition method. The proposed method can be applied in similarity matching and indexing for lager time series databases.

Concentration–discharge patterns of weathering products from global rivers

Quantifying the functional relationships relating river discharge and weathering products places key constraints on the negative feedback between the silicate weathering and climate. In this study we analyze the concentration–discharge relationships of weathering products from global rivers using previously compiled time-series datasets for concentrations and discharge from global rivers. To analyze the nature of the covariation between specific discharge and concentrations, we use both a power law equation and a recently developed solute production equation. The solute production equation allows us to quantify weathering efficiency, or the resistance to dilution at high runoff, via the Damkohler coefficient. These results are also compared to those derived using average concentration–discharge pairs.Both the power law exponent and the Damkohler coefficient increase and asymptote as catchments exhibit increasingly chemostatic behavior, resulting in an inverse relationship between the two parameters. We also show that using thedistribution of average concentration–discharge pairs from global rivers, rather than fitting concentration–discharge relationships for each individual river, underestimates global median weathering efficiency by up to a factor of ～10. This study demonstrates the utility of long time-series sampling of global rivers to elucidate controlling processes needed to quantify patterns in global silicate weathering rates.

出租车轨迹数据的南京人群出行模式挖掘

针对现有出租车轨迹数据挖掘中时间序列邻近度量方法存在的问题,提出一种基于DBSCAN算法和改进的DTW距离的时间序列聚类算法提取具有相似性出行特征的时空模式,进而研究城市人群出行行为的时空差异。以南京市为例,结合电子地图对出行模式的空间分布特征进行分析,证明了本文所提出的方法的有效性。实验结果表明:在空间分布上,工作日出租车出行模式按照平均出行频次由高到低排序,从城市中心向四周扩散,呈中心环状分布,出行模式区域界限较为明显,同类出行模式分布区域对应相似的功能。提出了一种基于DBSCAN算法和改进的DTW距离的时间序列聚类算法提取具有相似性出行特征的时空模式,有效地分析城市人群出行行为的时空差异。

Nonparametric estimation of quantiles for a class of stationary processes

We study smoothed quantile estimator for a class of stationary processes. We obtain the convergency rates and the Bahadur representation, as well as the asymptotic normality for this estimator by the method of m-dependent approximation. Our results can be used in the study of the estimation of value-at-risk(Va R) and applied to many time series which have important applications in econometrics.