Existing quantitative migration studies are mainly at the inter-region or inter-province level for lacking of detailed geo-referenced migration data.Meanwhile,few of them integrate explorative spatial data analysis an...Existing quantitative migration studies are mainly at the inter-region or inter-province level for lacking of detailed geo-referenced migration data.Meanwhile,few of them integrate explorative spatial data analysis and spatial regression model into migration analysis.Based on aggregated registered floating population data from 2005 to 2008,the phenomena that population floating to Yiwu City in Zhejiang Province is analyzed at the provincial and county levels.The spatial layout of Yiwu's pull forces is proved as a V-shaped pattern excluding Sichuan Province based on map visualization method.Using the migration ratio in 2007 as an explanatory variable,two models are compared using ordinary least square,spatial error model and spatial lag model methods for county-level data in Jiangxi and Anhui provinces.The model with migration stock provides an improved fitting over the model without migration stock according to the model fitting results.The floating population flocking into Yiwu City from Jiangxi is determined mostly by migration stock while the determinant factors are migration stock and distance to Yiwu City for Anhui.The distance-decay effect is true for migration flow from Anhui to Yiwu City while the distance rule is not confirmed in Jiangxi with the best fitting model.The correlation between per capita net income of rural labor forces and migration ratio is not significant in Jiangxi and significant but at the 0.1 level only in Anhui.Further analysis shows that the distance,income and man-land ratio are important factors to explain population floating at earlier stage.However,as the dynamic population floating process evolves,the determinant factor would be migration stock.展开更多
Several methods,including stepwise regression,ordinary kriging,cokriging,kriging with external drift,kriging with varying local means,regression-kriging,ordinary artificial neural networks,and kriging combined with ar...Several methods,including stepwise regression,ordinary kriging,cokriging,kriging with external drift,kriging with varying local means,regression-kriging,ordinary artificial neural networks,and kriging combined with artificial neural networks,were compared to predict spatial variation of saturated hydraulic conductivity from environmental covariates.All methods except ordinary kriging allow for inclusion of secondary variables.The secondary spatial information used was terrain attributes including elevation,slope gradient,slope aspect,profile curvature and contour curvature.A multiple jackknifing procedure was used as a validation method.Root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used as the validation indices,with the mean RMSE and mean MAE used to judge the prediction quality.Prediction performance by ordinary kriging was poor,indicating that prediction of saturated hydraulic conductivity can be improved by incorporating ancillary data such as terrain variables.Kriging combined with artificial neural networks performed best.These prediction models made better use of ancillary information in predicting saturated hydraulic conductivity compared with the competing models.The combination of geostatistical predictors with neural computing techniques offers more capability for incorporating ancillary information in predictive soil mapping.There is great potential for further research and development of hybrid methods for digital soil mapping.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41001314)Youth Science Funds of State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System,Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.KA11040101)National Key Technology R&D Program of China(No.2012BAI32B07)
文摘Existing quantitative migration studies are mainly at the inter-region or inter-province level for lacking of detailed geo-referenced migration data.Meanwhile,few of them integrate explorative spatial data analysis and spatial regression model into migration analysis.Based on aggregated registered floating population data from 2005 to 2008,the phenomena that population floating to Yiwu City in Zhejiang Province is analyzed at the provincial and county levels.The spatial layout of Yiwu's pull forces is proved as a V-shaped pattern excluding Sichuan Province based on map visualization method.Using the migration ratio in 2007 as an explanatory variable,two models are compared using ordinary least square,spatial error model and spatial lag model methods for county-level data in Jiangxi and Anhui provinces.The model with migration stock provides an improved fitting over the model without migration stock according to the model fitting results.The floating population flocking into Yiwu City from Jiangxi is determined mostly by migration stock while the determinant factors are migration stock and distance to Yiwu City for Anhui.The distance-decay effect is true for migration flow from Anhui to Yiwu City while the distance rule is not confirmed in Jiangxi with the best fitting model.The correlation between per capita net income of rural labor forces and migration ratio is not significant in Jiangxi and significant but at the 0.1 level only in Anhui.Further analysis shows that the distance,income and man-land ratio are important factors to explain population floating at earlier stage.However,as the dynamic population floating process evolves,the determinant factor would be migration stock.
基金Supported by Shahrekord University,Shahrekord,Iran
文摘Several methods,including stepwise regression,ordinary kriging,cokriging,kriging with external drift,kriging with varying local means,regression-kriging,ordinary artificial neural networks,and kriging combined with artificial neural networks,were compared to predict spatial variation of saturated hydraulic conductivity from environmental covariates.All methods except ordinary kriging allow for inclusion of secondary variables.The secondary spatial information used was terrain attributes including elevation,slope gradient,slope aspect,profile curvature and contour curvature.A multiple jackknifing procedure was used as a validation method.Root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used as the validation indices,with the mean RMSE and mean MAE used to judge the prediction quality.Prediction performance by ordinary kriging was poor,indicating that prediction of saturated hydraulic conductivity can be improved by incorporating ancillary data such as terrain variables.Kriging combined with artificial neural networks performed best.These prediction models made better use of ancillary information in predicting saturated hydraulic conductivity compared with the competing models.The combination of geostatistical predictors with neural computing techniques offers more capability for incorporating ancillary information in predictive soil mapping.There is great potential for further research and development of hybrid methods for digital soil mapping.