Dynamic of forest landscape in Heilongjiang Province for one century

With the help of GIS tool of ARC/INFO, ARCVIEW and FRAGSTATS, the map of forest resource distribution of Heilongjiang Province was analyzed in 1896, 1949 and 1981. Using total area, mean patch size, patch density, coefficient of patch size variation, mean patch fractal dimension and mean shape index, we studied the change of forest landscape pattern and the change of each patch types in this region. As a result, the total area of forest landscape and mean patch size decreased sharply, the quantity and density of patches increased, the juxtaposition of patches weakened, the shape of patch tended to become regular, and the border of patch simplified. All these showed that the forest landscape of this area tended to fragment gradually, and the fragment of Korean pine forest is the severest. The diversity of whole forest landscape and the evenness of landscape types distribution reduced gradually. Human impact, instead of climate change and forest community succession, is the most important reason for such dramatic changes.

自画自话

艺术从来都是一条孤寂之道,其中的甘苦只有自己知道,外在的热闹都是别人眼中的风景,那不是内心的自己,只有当自己坐于画案前,面对素纸,即使不动笔,不翻书,静静地在画室里坐着,也是一种幸福。快乐如此简单,唯此时,将心沉寂下来,做回内心的自己,品茶、读书、挥毫,都是自在之事。

SEASONAL VARIATIONS OF THE TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION AND ITS REPRODUCTION IN SAMIL-R_(42)L_9

Seasonal variations of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation （ISO） and relationship to seasonal variation of the climate background are studied by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and output of SAMIL-R42L9. Analysis of NCEP data shows that spatial distribution of the tropical ISO has obvious seasonal variations, which are well consistent with the seasonal variation of climate background. The activity of the tropical ISO is, to a great extent, dependent on warm SST, strong convection, zonal western wind, strong precipitation and low-level moisture convergence. Main characteristics of the seasonal variations of the tropical ISO are captured by SAMIL-R42L9. Simulations of seasonal variation of climate background vary greatly with different variables. Results of SAMIL-R42L9 indicate that the seasonal variations of the tropical ISO in dynamical fields are more dependent on climate background than in heating fields and SAMIL-R42L9 canllot represent well the strong dependence of the ISO on the climate background present in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. It also suggests that seasonal variations of the ISO do not completely depend on that of climate background.

Analysis of China's Haze Days in the Winter Half-Year and the Climatic Background during 1961–2012

The characteristics of haze days and the climatic background are analyzed by using daily observations of haze,precipitation,mean and maximum wind speed of 664 meteorological stations for the period of 1961–2012.The results show that haze days occur significantly more often in eastern China than in western China.The annual number of haze days is 5–30 d in most parts of central-eastern China,with some areas experiencing more than 30 d,while less than 5 d are averagely occurring in western China.Haze days are mainly concentrated in the winter half-year,with most in winter,followed by autumn,spring,and then summer.Nearly 20%of annual haze days are experienced in December.The haze days in central-eastern China in the winter half-year have a significant increasing trend of 1.7 d per decade during 1961–2012.There were great increases in haze days in the 1960s,1970s and the beginning of the 21st century.There was also significant abrupt changes of haze days in the early 1970s and 2000s.From 1961 to 2012,haze days in the winter half-year increased in South China,the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River,and North China,but decreased in Northeast China,eastern Northwest China and eastern Southwest China.The number of persistent haze is rising.The Longer the haze,the greater the proportion to the number persistent haze.Certain climatic conditions exacerbated the occurrence of haze.The correlation coefficient between haze days and precipitation days in the winter half-year is mainly negative in central-eastern China.The precipitation days show a decreasing trend in most parts of China,with a rate of around–4.0 d per decade in central-eastern China,which reduces the sedimentation capacity of atmospheric pollutants.During the period of 1961–2012,the correlation coefficients between haze days and mean wind speed and strong wind days are mainly negative in central-eastern China,while there exists positive correlation between haze days and breeze days in the winter half-year.The mean wind speed and strong wind days are decreasing,while breeze days are increasing in most parts of China,which is benefitial to the reduction of the pollutants diffusion capacity.As a result,haze occurs more easily.

Simulation of Climate Change Scenarios for Phu Luong Watershed in Northern Viet Nam

The purpose of this paper is to apply ＂LARS-WG （Long Ashton Research Station--Weather Generator）＂ model to simulate the climate change scenarios for Phu Luong watershed in northem Viet Nam. Results indicated that LARS-WG adequately predicted precipitation and temperature with R2 = 0.80 and 0.73, respectively. Likewise, p-value of F test = 0.062 and p-value of t test = 0.885 for precipitation, meanwhile, for temperature are 0.092 and 0.564 at 0.05 level of significance, respectively. Moreover, results also stated that mean annual precipitation increases 1.62%, 2.17% and 3.96% and mean annual temperature increases 0.6 ℃, 0.8 ℃ and 1.05 ℃ in 2020, 2030 and 2040, respectively, with respect to those from baseline periods. This study also showed that LARS-WG model was used successfully for Viet Nam＇s watershed conditions.

Flowering and Fruiting Phenology of 24 Plant Species on the North Slope of Mt. Qomolangma (Mt. Everest)

Phenological background information for alpine species is limited from extremely high altitudes. Flowering and fruiting phenology was monitored for 24 plant species at 5,180 m a.s.1, near the base camp area on the north slope of Mt. Qomolangma （Mt. Everest） in Tibet, western China. The dates of first flowering, peak flowering, end of flowering, first fruiting, peak fruiting and flowering period were recorded. There was a wide variation in onset of flowering, long flowering duration, a relative synchrony between the onset of flowering and fruiting, and one species was exclusively vegetative. These results suggest that the species have evolved various phenological strategies as adaptations to the short growing season with limited resources and pollinators in this harsh alpine environment at extremely high elevations. With a background of global warming, local plant species will represent an advancing trend in onset of flowering.

Response of Northern Hemispheric Air Temperature to Arctic Sea Ice Decline

Two numerical experiments were performed by using the Community Atmosphere Model version 3 （CAM3） with different sea ice datasets to assess the con- tribution of the decline of Arctic sea ice to warming in the Northern Hemisphere. One observed sea ice cover data; experiment was driven by for the other one, the authors used the sea ice data of the 4xCO2 scenario simulated by the fourth-generation European Centre Hamburg atmos- pheric general circulation Model of Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Italy （1NGV ECHAM4）. The comparison of the two experiments indicates that the de- cline of the Arctic sea ice leads to a dramatic wanning over the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, char- acterized by a maximum warming of more than 26~C over the Arctic region. The significant warming is closely re- lated to the enhanced atmospheric heat source. A 40-60 W m-2 increase in the apparent heat source was simulated in winter due to the decline of Arctic sea ice. In contrast, no significant change was found in the atmospheric ap- parent heat source in summer. As a result, the summer temperature change induced by the decline of Arctic sea ice appears to be weak. This study suggests that accurate sea ice cover data is crucial for future climate projection of air temperature in high latitudes.

Then and Now： A Content Analysis of Media Used in the Presidential Election Campaigns of Kennedy and Obama

American campaigning has become increasingly complex as it adjusts to our ever-changing cultural landscape. The use of electronic media in the presidential campaigns of 1960 and 2008 is illustrative of this shift. A content analysis of these two campaigns demonstrates how each applied the newest technologies available at the time to define the candidate＇s image and export the messages to the electorate. Whether it be Kennedy＇s use of television or Obama＇s usage of social media, the role that new media of the day played in both campaigns clearly set the tone for future political campaigns. This examination of the role of media in both elections serves to form a primer for how the successful applications of new media lead to campaign victory. Then and now, the growing influence of new technologies on campaigning makes it necessary to compare and contrast the successful usages and strategies employed. The need for continuing analysis will grow in the coming years.

Effect of Climate Change on Water Resources and Water Management Practices： A Review of Research Methods and Findings with Special Reference to Australia

In this secondary research, published works on effect of climate change on water resources in other countries and in Australia were reviewed critically. Research question, objectives and assumptions were made to facilitate this study. First, methods used for such studies and their results at global level were reviewed. Then Australian specific methods of study and findings were reviewed. More commonly, both globally and in Australia, simulations using long-term real data on selected climatic scenarios of global climatic models are projected for long-term future trends. The validity and certainty of predicted occurrences depend upon the closeness of real time data with scenarios to which they are projected. Even with these limitations, projections of already rising temperatures and declining rainfall on surface water and ground water availabilities show gradual decline in water availability leading to water stress both for human communities and ecosystems The role of human-induced emissions in hastening the degradation process has also been investigated. Conserving all available water, practising efficient water consumption and prudent water policies only can provide some relief from what is inevitable.

Modelling Regional Land Change Scenarios to Assess Land Abandonment and Reforestation Dynamics in the Pyrenees(France)

Over the last decades and centuries,European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations.Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes(land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities,have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes.For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population.Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes,need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment.This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains,based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers.The proposed methodologyconsiders local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys,sub-regional climate and topographical properties,and regional economic policies.Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions.Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive(agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability.The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment(e.g.colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable.This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

Responses of Tree Species to Climate Warming at Different Spatial Scales

Tree species respond to climate change at multiple scales,such as species physiological response at fine scale and species distribution (quantified by percent area) at broader spatial scale.At a given spatial scale,species physiological response and distribution can be correlated positively or negatively.The consistency of such correlation relationships at different spatial scales determines whether species responses derived from local scales can be extrapo-lated to broader spatial scales.In this study,we used a coupled modeling approach that coupled a plot-level ecosystem process model (LINKAGES) with a spatially explicit landscape model (LANDIS).We investigated species physio-logical responses and distribution responses to climate warming at the local,zonal and landscape scales respectively,and examined how species physiological response and distribution correlated at each corresponding scale and whether the correlations were consistent among these scales.The results indicate that for zonal and warming-sensitive species,the correlations between species physiological response and distribution are consistent at these spatial scales,and therefore the research results of vegetation response to climate warming at the local scale can be extrapolated to the zonal and landscape scales.By contrast,for zonal and warming-insensitive species the correlations among different spatial scales are consistent at some spatial scales but at other scales.The results also suggest that the results of azonal species at the local scale near their distribution boundaries can not be extrapolated simply to broader scales due to stronger responses to climate warming in those boundary regions.

Warming-driven migration of core microbiota indicates soil property changes at continental scale

Terrestrial species are predicted to migrate northward under global warming conditions,yet little is known about the direction and magnitude of change in microbial distribution patterns.In this continental-scale study with more than 1600 forest soil samples,we verify the existence of core microbiota and lump them into a manageable number of eco-clusters based on microbial habitat preferences.By projecting the abundance differences of eco-clusters between future and current climatic conditions,we observed the potential warming-driven migration of the core microbiota under warming,partially verified by a field warming experiment at Southwest China.Specifically,the species that favor low p H are potentially expanding and moving northward to medium-latitudes(25°–45°N),potentially implying that warm temperate forest would be under threat of soil acidification with warming.The eco-cluster of high-p H with high-annual mean temperature(AMT)experienced significant abundance increases at middle-(35°–45°N)to high-latitudes(>45°N),especially under Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)8.5,likely resulting in northward expansion.Furthermore,the eco-cluster that favors low-soil organic carbon(SOC)was projected to increase under warming scenarios at low-latitudes(<25°N),potentially an indicator of SOC storage accumulation in warmer areas.Meanwhile,at high-latitudes(>45°N)the changes in relative abundance of this eco-cluster is inversely related with the temperature variation trends,suggesting microbes-mediated soil organic carbon changes are more responsive to temperature variation in colder areas.These results have vital implications for the migration direction of microbial communities and its potential ecological consequences in future warming scenarios.

A Diversifying Landscape

British-Pakistani Sadiq Khan,the Labour Party candidate,was elected as the new Mayor of London on May 8.Khan’s victory has set two records in Britain and Western Europe.He has become London’s first mayor to come from an ethnic minority background,and he is also the first Muslim mayor to head a famous European metropolis.

Circulation background of climate patterns in the past millennium: Uncertainty analysis and re-reconstruction of ENSO-like state

The question of whether or not global warming has paused since more than ten years ago, namely ＂warming hia- tus＂, has attracted the attention of climate science community including the IPCC. Some authors have attributed the ＂warming hiatus＂ to the internal changes in the climate system, i.e., the recombination of ocean-atmosphere circulations. Therefore, it is necessary to propose higher requirements on reconstructing circulation background of climate change for the past millennium. However, the analyses of changes in atmospheric circulation over the last millennium as well as the conclusions of related re- gional climate patterns are so widely different and contradictory, bringing uncertainties to our understanding of regional even global climate change to a great extent. On the other hand, in the last 10 years the high-precision U/Th-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope ratio （δ^18O） sequences provided an accurate chronological frame for the paleoclimate study of the middle and late Pleistocene, in which all authors from China took the Chinese stalagmite δ^18O as the summer monsoon index without excep- tion. However, this point of view misleads the climate scientists into thinking that the stalagmite δ^18O can be as the proxy of precipitation amount. Nevertheless, it is well known that all of these records have a lot in common in the low frequency trend. However, most sequences cannot be calibrated by instrumental precipitation records, and thus the uncertainty of the climate research framework of China and even of the world has increased. Therefore, it is imperative for climatology to clarify the origin of contradiction and to reduce the uncertainty as early as possible. On the basis of analyzing the significance of stalag- mite ~180 in the monsoon regions of China, the author tries to propose a new circulation proxy in this paper： integrating the Chinese stalagmite oxygen isotope sequence to reconstruct the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient, i.e., the large-scale ENSO-like state over the past millennium. Furthermore, the author speculates that it was warm in the modern times and the Medieval Period, but the circulation recombination was different in both periods. And this inference could be support- ed by the longer record since Last Glacial Maximum. In other words, the attribution analysis of the identical low-frequency trends of Chinese stalagmite t^180 on a large scale shows that the ENSO-like state controls the climate change in the monsoon regions of China at different time scales （from interannual to century or even longer time scales）. Wherein the important connection of circulations is the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）, that is to say, besides the interannual and decadal time scales, the WPSH would possess the circulation mode on longer timescales. For example, we may discuss the change of the WPSH in the whole Holocene epoch, i.e., the half precession period. These discussions could make sense to the study of not only the paleoclimate but also the modern climate.

Landscape changes have greater effects than climate changes on six insect pests in China

In recent years, global changes are the major causes of frequent, widespread outbreaks of pests in mosaic landscapes, which have received substantial attention worldwide. We collected data on global changes(landscape and climate) and economic damage caused by six main insect pests during 1951–2010 in China. Landscape changes had significant effects on all six insect pests. Pest damage increased significantly with increasing arable land area in agricultural landscapes. However, climate changes had no effect on damage caused by pests, except for the rice leaf roller(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee) and armyworm(Mythimna separate(Walker)), which caused less damage to crops with increasing mean temperature. Our results indicate that there is slight evidence of possible offset effects of climate changes on the increasing damage from these two agricultural pests. Landscape changes have caused serious outbreaks of several species, which suggests the possibility of the use of landscape design for the control of pest populations through habitat rearrangement. Landscape manipulation may be used as a green method to achieve sustainable pest management with minimal use of insecticides and herbicides.