不确定目标的多解规划研究——以北京大环文化产业园的预景规划为例

预景规划被认为是当今处理动态的、复杂的、非线性的环境的最好的规划方法之一。欧美生态学家和景观规划师早在20世纪80年代就将此方法运用于环境规划和管理之中。本文以大环文化产业园的预景规划为例,探索从一个模糊的不确定目标通过多次头脑风暴和不断搜寻,进而寻找到若干个相对清晰的目标的多解规划的过程与方法。

预景规划方法在概念规划中的应用——以马鞍山市江心洲发展概念规划为例

预景规划是通过分析影响未来的最不确定因素和最具影响驱动力的特征、作用力来了解未来的一种规划方法。由于具有客观分析未来的特点,预景规划方法被引入到城市的发展概念规划中。与多方案的规划方法不同的是,预景规划的目标不在于产生多个方案,而是在认识到城市存在多种发展可能的基础上,寻找直接影响城市发展方向的最核心的不确定因素,并根据这些因素的各种可能组合,预测城市的多种发展前景,为城市政策制定者提供参考。

基于正反评价的福州市土地承载力预景分析

新型城镇化对土地节约集约提出更高要求。以福州市为例,探讨城镇化背景下盆地城市土地承载力评价方法。提出"正反"双向评价方法,建立建设适宜性"正评价"与生态安全格局"反评价"模型。基于底线、满意、理想三种情景下的生态用地,提出不同发展水平下城市土地人口承载水平与空间分布方案,引导城市发展与用地选择。最后,总结该方法的不足与改善建议。研究表明:福州市土地建设承载水平区域差异较大,西北部生态安全等级高,建设承载力较低,中部及东南沿海的福清市与长乐市土地建设承载水平较好,可作为未来重点发展区域。

需求链管理的预景模型研究

从容量限制的市场调控管理模型和基于财务状况最优的综合成本管理模型入手,研究了需求链管理的预景模型,给出了需求链管理的思路,以及需求链管理的预景模型框架。指出企业在管理中,应更加关注市场的变化和企业的财务状况,以保证企业的持续发展能力。

基于生态因素约束的我国城镇人口空间格局预景

以"六普"分县人口数为基础,通过预景的研究方法,模拟无生态约束和有生态约束两种情景下,未来我国城镇人口的空间格局。认为到2032年左右,我国人口将达到最高峰,全国总人口大约14.7亿人。届时中国城镇化也将接近尾声,城镇化率约为70%,全国城镇总人口共约10.3亿,比2010年增加3.6亿。据模拟,2032年左右,无生态因素约束下,东部地区城镇人口增速更快,东部、中部、西部地区城镇人口占全国总城镇人口的比例分别为50.2%、28.7%、21.0%。生态因素约束下,城镇人口由西部、中部地区向东部地区进一步集聚,东部、中部、西部地区三个区域城镇人口比2010年分别增长64.9%、47.9%、36.7%;城镇人口占全国城镇总人口的比例分别为52.1%、27.5%、20.4%。研究结论可为促进我国城镇化空间分布与资源、生态、环境相适应、优化国土空间开发格局提供参考。

预景法在中国邮政战略决策中的应用研究

对处在不确定性环境下的邮政企业战略决策引入预景法 ,以便具有更前瞻的眼光和更强的战略主动性。文章分析了预景法的应用条件及操作步骤 ,并在分析影响邮政发展的主要因素的基础上 。

绿网建构与现行城市规划编制的衔接方式

城市绿地生态网络的建构是平衡城市建设与生态保护二者关系的有效途径。在剖析当前城市规划编制在生态保护方面存在问题的基础上,致力于研究绿网建构与现行城市规划编制的衔接方式,使绿网建构的科研成果能尽快融入现行城市规划编制中。将衔接方式表述为分2个层面的规划,即城市绿地生态网络建构规划与以绿网建构为导向的城市开发管控导则。探讨了建构规划的编制内容,研究了以绿网建构为导向的城市未来增长格局预景。架构了管控导则的指标系统,总结了城市绿地生态交错带的特征及其相关指标。

链农“贩菜”

餐饮食材B2B,掘金者前仆后继,至今多是先烈,未有先锋。链农能改写格局吗？＂互联网＋＂时代,下一个万亿级的金矿在哪里？刘源下注餐饮供应链。刘源是北京链农电子商务有限公司（下称＂链农＂）的创始人、CEO,这是一家专为餐饮企业提供一站式食材采购服务的公司。对于食材B2B市场的前景,刘源并非盲目乐观。今年2月,

Projected Changes of Palmer Drought Severity Index under an RCP8.5 Scenario

The potential change of drought measured by the Palmer Drought Severity Index （PDSI） is projected by using a coupled climate system model under a Representative Pathway 8.5 （RCP8.5） scenario.The PDSI changes calculated by two potential evapotranspiration algorithms are compared.The algorithm of Thomthwaite equation overestimates the impact of surface temperature on evaporation and leads to an unrealistic increasing of drought frequency.The PM algorithm based on the Penman-Monteith equation is physically reasonably and necessary for climate change projections.The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model,Spectral Version 2 （FGOALS-s2） projects an increasing trend of drought during 2051-2100 in tropical and subtropical areas of North and South America,North Africa,South Europe,Southeast Asia,and the Australian continent.Both the moderate drought （PDSI ＜-2） and extreme drought （PDSI ＜-4） areas show statistically significant increasing trends under an RCP8.5 scenario.The uncertainty in the model projection is also discussed.

基于GIS分析的规划预景探索——以余姚环四明湖地区保护开发为例

在多元化的社会发展中,城市发展受各方面因素影响,存在多种发展的可能。以余姚环四明湖地区为研究实例,以GIS为技术手段,寻找影响区域发展的最核心因素,预判空间发展趋势,预景空间发展可能,进而导向用地布局与政策建议。研究表明基于GIS分析的规划预景对规划方案的产生和优化具有前瞻性和现实意义。

Predicting landslide scenes under potential earthquake scenarios in the Xianshuihe fault zone, Southwest China

Earthquake-induced landslides can seriously aggravate the earthquake's destructive consequences and have caused widespread concern in recent decades. The Xianshuihe fault is a large active left-lateral strike-slip fault in the southeast margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Southwest China, where the frequent strong earthquakes have brought abundant geo-hazards. This study focuses mainly on exploring and predicting the landslide scenes induced by the potential earthquakes. Firstly, the sophisticated Newmark model is improved through landslide cases induced by the Ms7.9 Luhuo earthquake in 1973 to adapt the field seismotectonics of the Xianshuihe fault zone. Then, it is used to predict the landslide scenes under one speculated potential earthquake scenario with the similar focal mechanism with the Luhuo earthquake. The preliminary results show that the slope displacement resulted from Newmark model can reflect spatial distribution characteristics ofearthquake-induced landslides. The predicted potential earthquake-induced landslide scenes present an obvious extending trend along the Xianshuihe fault. The landslide hazard is greater in the northeast regions than southwest regions of the Xianshuihe fault, where there are more complex topographic conditions. The study procedure will be a helpful demonstration for exploration and prediction of landslide scenes under potential earthquakes in the regions with high seismic activity.

Definition of Business as Usual and Its Impacts on Assessment of Mitigation Efforts

Business as Usual （BaU） scenario in developing countries has been a debated issue in climate change negotiations. This paper analyzes different definitions of BaU and points out that the major difference among these definitions is how to set the starting point of BaU projections, that is the so called base year. Some international institutions use current policy scenarios to project a BaU trajectory of developing countries. Such definition will lead to an underestimation of BaU emissions of developing countries and thus an underestimation of mitigation efforts. This paper concludes with a suggestion to use a without policy scenario with a clear base year as definition of BaU. Such a definition will set an objective benchmark to assess mitigation efforts of develonin countries.

Effect of Climate Change on Water Resources and Water Management Practices： A Review of Research Methods and Findings with Special Reference to Australia

In this secondary research, published works on effect of climate change on water resources in other countries and in Australia were reviewed critically. Research question, objectives and assumptions were made to facilitate this study. First, methods used for such studies and their results at global level were reviewed. Then Australian specific methods of study and findings were reviewed. More commonly, both globally and in Australia, simulations using long-term real data on selected climatic scenarios of global climatic models are projected for long-term future trends. The validity and certainty of predicted occurrences depend upon the closeness of real time data with scenarios to which they are projected. Even with these limitations, projections of already rising temperatures and declining rainfall on surface water and ground water availabilities show gradual decline in water availability leading to water stress both for human communities and ecosystems The role of human-induced emissions in hastening the degradation process has also been investigated. Conserving all available water, practising efficient water consumption and prudent water policies only can provide some relief from what is inevitable.

FORECAST ON FUTURE LEVEL OF ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA

China is a country in the period of economy takeoff. We cannot use the commonmethod to forecast its future economy level. This paper establishes an economic level forecastmodel of the countries whose economy is in the take off because of the stimulation of model country.The enlightenment of the model is from physics. If there are two substances, A and B, and a mediumbetween them, according to physics, when substance A is hotter than B, B's temperature willinevitably rise and close to that of A. Thus, this system tends to be a state of balance. Threefactors affect heat conduction between substance A and B. They are the difference of temperaturebetween two substances, the conductivity of medium and the characteristics of themselves. The modelis testified through two examples. And then we forecast the economic development level of China inlong term. This paper raises a model to solve the problem of research approaches. However, sincethere are some limitations on data source, problems will appear. For example, in certain years, ourforecast results do not suit the real situation. But in the long term, the tendency is accurate.Then this model can be amended in accordance with different situations.

Mechanism on simulation and experiment of pre-crack seam formation in stope roof

The pre-crack blast technology has been used to control the induction caving area in the roof. The key is to form the pre-crack seam and predict the effect of the seam. The H-J-C blast model was built in the roof. Based on the theories of dynamic strength and failure criterion of dynamic rock, the rock dynamic damage and the evolution of pre-crack seam were simulated by the tensile damage and shear failure of the model. According to the actual situation of No. 92 ore body test stope at Tongkeng Mine, the formation process of the pre-crack blast seam was simulated by Ansys/Ls-dyna software, the pre-crack seam was inspected by a system of digital panoramic borehole camera. The pre-crack seam was inspected by the system of digital panoramic borehole in the roof. The results of the numerical simulation and inspection show that in the line of centers of pre-hole, the minimum of the tensile stress reaches 20 MPa, which is much larger than 13.7 MPa of the dynamic tensile strength of rock. The minimum particle vibration velocity reaches 50 cm/s, which is greater than 30-40 cm/s of the allowable vibration velocity. It is demonstrated that the rock is destroyed near the center line and the pre-crack is successfully formed by the large diameters and large distances pre-crack holes in the roof.

Seismic Damage Characteristics of the Wenchuan Great Earthquake on May 12,2008 and Suggestions for Disaster Prevention

The paper introduces the tectonic background, focal mechanism and distribution of aftershock of the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12,2008. The earthquake is considered to be the result of long-term interaction between the eastward movement of the Bayan Har Block and the Sichuan Basin. Most of the earthquake energy was released in an area （the seismic source body） 330kin long,52km wide and 20km deep over 100s. Energy release in the source body was extremely uneven, and strong ground motion in the epicenter area shows obvious asymmetrical character in the time and space scale. The high-intensity area is distributed along the source body, and the intensity distribution bears an obvious anomalous characteristic. The investigation results indicate that more than 90 percent of casualties caused by this earthquake were in the areas of intensity IX or above. Houses, schools and hospitals etc. suffered serious damage. Lifelines such as transportation, water conservation etc. also suffered significant damage. Besides, earthquake-triggered avalanches, landslides, mud-rock flows and so on were extremely serious. The tremendous earthquake disaster highlighted the deficiencies in disaster prevention and mitigation management, scientific earthquake research, technology and application of earthquake disaster prevention, and publicity of earthquake preparedness and disaster reduction.

The Future Development of Small and Medium Budget Movies

Since ＂Heroes＂ ＇ s success in 2002, local blockbusters has found its own way to make profit. ＂Make big movie, earn big money＂ has become an indisputable fact. But within the 330 movies made in China in 2006, only very few of them are blockbusters, and the rest can all be classified as small and medium budget films. In particular, the low budget production in 2006, a small film ＂Crazy Stone＂ ＇ s unexpected success aroused wide attention from people both inside and outside the industry. With investment of several million, it has won over 20 million Box office. Coupled with the subsequent ＂Still Life＂ who has won international awards, plus, a large number of small and medium cost movies such as ＂Nintendogs＂ , ＂utter confusion＂ , ＂My name is Liu Yuejin＂ , ＂year-round,＂ and so on has won huge applauses from the audiences, the small and medium budget movies become a dazzling landscape in the whole movie market. Since then, discussions about such movie became one of the hottest debated topics in the movie industry.

On Governance of Celebrity Endorsements in False Advertising

incidents of extreme hyperbole and fraud in celebrity advertisements have occurred repeatedly because advertising participants are driven by commercial interests and it is also relevant to the deep social and cultural background. Therefore, great and prolonged efforts should be made to govern celebrity advertising in a multi-pronged way： strengthening legal supervision on the basis of clearly defined false advertising; establishing early warning and punishing systems including pre-qualification system, filing system and banning system; promoting public interest litigation system; increasing consumers＇ media literacy.