浙江东风暴雨天气的一种诊断统计预报方法

利用常规观测资料，对符合东风暴雨天气环境场条件的个例，通过逐步订正客观分析，计算诊断物理量，并把相关系数｜ｒ｜≥０．３２的物理量经处理后作为预报因子。采用逐步判别的统计分析方法，对７～９月发生在浙江省的东风暴雨天气建立时效为０～２４ｈ的展望预报方程。该预报方法所得的拟合率为８６％，对１９９４年８～９月的试报技巧评分为ＰＯＤ＝１．００，ＦＡＲ＝０．５７，ＣＳＩ＝０．４２。

锡盟“7．17”暴雨与“碧利斯”

利用天气动力学原理对2006年7月17日锡盟南部地区及西苏旗出现的暴雨天气过程进行了分析与探讨，结果表明：高空处于强暖脊控制，不利于强降水产生的弱对流环境条件下，低空冷涡及地面倒槽仍可为产生暴雨提供辐合上升运动和充沛的水汽条件；而台风“碧利斯”在登陆后长达5天的生命史中，为锡盟“7·17”暴雨过程提供了必要的动力抬升条件，激发了锡盟地区中尺度强降水系统发生、发展。

ANALYSIS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM-SECTOR RAINSTORM EVENT OVER SOUTH CHINA

With multiple meteorological data, including precipitation from automatic weather stations, integrated satellite-based precipitation (CMORPH), brightness temperature (TBB), radar echoes and NCEP reanalysis, a rainstorm event, which occurred on May 26, 2007 over South China, is analyzed with the focus on the evolution characteristics of associated mesoscale-β convective systems (Mβcss). Results are shown as follows. (1) The rainstorm presents itself as a typical warm-sector event, for it occurs within a surface inverted trough and on the left side of a southwesterly low-level jet (LLJ), which shows no obvious features of baroclinicity. (2) The heavy rainfall event is directly related to at least three bodies of Mβcss with peak precipitation corresponding well to their mature stages. (3) The Mβcss manifest a backward propagation, which is marked with a new form of downstream convection different from the more usual type of forward propagation over South China, i.e., new convective systems mainly form at the rear part of older Mβcss. (4) Rainstorm-causing Mβcss form near the convergence region on the left side of an 850-hPa southwesterly LLJ, over which there are dominantly divergent air flows at 200 hPa. Different from the typical flow pattern of outward divergence off the east side of South Asia High, which is usually found to be over zones of heavy rains during the annually first rainy season of South China, this warm-sector heavy rain is below the divergence region formed between the easterly and southerly flows west of the South Asian High that is moving out to sea. (5) The LLJ transports abundant amount of warm and moist air to the heavy rainfall area, providing advantageous conditions for highly unstable energy to generate and store at middle and high levels, where corresponding low-level warm advection may be playing a more direct role in the development of Mβcss. As a triggering mechanism for organized convective systems, the effect of low-level warm advection deserves more of our attention. Based on the analysis of surface mesoscale airflow in the article, possible triggering mechanisms for Mβcss are also discussed.

FLO-2D Simulation of Mudflow Caused by Large Landslide Due to Extremely Heavy Rainfall in Southeastern Taiwan during Typhoon Morakot

Daniau Village in Daniau Creek Watershed, Taitung County, Taiwan, sustained damages from landslides and mudflows during Typhoon Morakot in 2009. The purpose of this study is to adopt the FLO-2D numerical model recognized by Federal Emergency Management Agency （FEMA） to simulate the mudflow, and the Daniau Village was used as a case study, along with rainfall and digital terrain data for this simulation. On the basis of sediment yields, the residual sediment volume in the landslide area was determined to be 33,276 ma by comparison of digital elevation models （DEMs） and by using the universal soil loss equation （USLE）. In addition, this study performed a hydrological frequency analysis of rainfall to estimate the flow discharge as conditions of the simulation. Results of disaster surveys were collected to compare with outputs of the numerical model. Results of the simulation conducted with FLO- 2D indicated that if the countermeasure was not destroyed, the drainage work would function without overflow. This study aimed to review the effectiveness of eountermeasure on the basis of simulation results obtained by using the model to provide references for future disaster prevention and resident evacuation plans.

VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL IN CHINA AT DIFFERENT INTENSITIES

According to the national standard(2006)on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity,TCs are categorized into six intensity types,namely,tropical depression(TD),tropical storm(TS),severe tropical storm(STS), typhoon(TY),severe typhoon(STY),and super severe typhoon(SSTY).Fifty-eight years(1949–2006)of the datasets from the Yearbook of Typhoons and Yearbook of Tropical Cyclones were used to study the variation characteristics of TCs making landfalls in China's Mainland,Hainan and Taiwan islands.The main results are as follows.First,interannual or interdecadal variations in the number of landfalling TCs at different intensities exist.As far as long-term trends are concerned,the TD and TS frequencies show a significant linearly decreasing trend while those of STY show a significant linearly increasing trend.Second, a significant period of 6–8 years exist in the variations of annual landfalling TD,TS,and STS frequencies while quasi-16-year periods are found in the annual TY frequency.Third,TD and TS are generated mostly over the South China Sea,while TY,STY,and SSTY mostly over the waters southeast of the Bashi Channel and the ocean to the east of the Philippines.Fourth,as far as interdecadal trends are concerned,the frequencies of landfalling TD and TS generated over the South China Sea show significant linearly decreasing trends.However,TY and STY show significant linearly increasing trends.

Corrosion and pitting behavior of pure aluminum 1060 exposed to Nansha Islands tropical marine atmosphere

The corrosion and pitting behavior of pure aluminum 1060 exposed to Nansha Islands marine atmosphere for 34 months was investigated based on mass loss measurement,scanning electron microscopy(SEM),energy dispersive spectroscopy(EDS),X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy(XPS),and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy(EIS).The results indicated that serious pitting corrosion occurred on the surfaces of pure aluminum.The corrosion rate after exposure for 13 months was approximately 1.28 g/(m^(2)·a).The XPS results showed that the corrosion products were Al_(2)O_(3),Al(OH)_(3),and AlCl_(3).Moreover,the corrosion product layer was more protective than the native oxide film,and the protectiveness first increased and then decreased.Finally,the shape of the pits was evaluated using statistical analysis.

Comparison of two types of persistent heavy rainfall events during sixteen warm seasons in the Sichuan Basin

Based on hourly precipitation from national surface stations,persistent heavy rainfall events(PHREs)over the Sichuan Basin(SCB)are explored during the warm season(May to September)from 2000 to 2015 to compare synoptic circulations and maintenance mechanisms between different PHRE types.There are two main types of PHREs:one is characterized by a rain belt west of 106°E over the SCB(WSB-PHREs),and the other features a rain belt east of 106°E over the SCB(ESB-PHREs).In total,there are 18 ESB-PHREs and 10 WSB-PHREs during the study period.Overall,the rain belts of WSB-PHREs are along the terrain distribution east of the Tibetan Plateau,while the precipitation intensity of ESB-PHREs is stronger.For the two types of PHREs,the shortwave trough over the SCB and the western Pacific subtropical high act as their favorable background environments,particularly for ESB-PHREs.The water vapor of WSB-PHREs is mainly transported from the South China Sea,whereas for ESB-PHREs the South China Sea and Bay of Bengal are their main moisture sources.The composite vorticity budgets of southwest vortices during their mature stage indicate that the convergence effect is a dominant factor for maintaining the two types of PHREs,and the strong vertical vorticity advection is also favorable,but the relative contribution of vertical advection is larger for WSB-PHREs.

IMPACTS OF ATOVS DATA ASSIMILATION ON PREDICTION OF A RAINSTORM OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA

Using the Advanced Research WRF (ARW WRF) model and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational analysis (3DVAR) system,the impact of assimilating ATOVS (Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder) radiance through the prototype Community Radiative Transfer Model (pCRTM) is evaluated on the forecasting of a heavy rainstorm occurring over the central Guangdong province in the southeast of China on 20-21 June 2005. A pair of comparison experiments (NODA and DA) for this case is conducted with multiple configurations,including nesting domains with 4-km and 12-km grid distances. The results showed that by changing the initial condition through data assimilation,a modified divergence and moisture field with the structure of dipoles has been added to the axis of the rainband with a southwest-northeast orientation. When more moisture carried by a southwesterly low level jet (LLJ) was converged into the northeast portion of the rainband around the observatory station of Longmen,the amplitude of moisture static energy (MSE) increased substantially at low levels much more than at middle levels,resulting in the enlarging of differences in MSE between 500 hPa and 850 hPa; the atmosphere became more unstable. Consequently,the convective rainfall increased in the northeast part of the province around the Longmen station,which was consistent with the observed distribution of rainfall.

Corrosion behavior of copper in extremely harsh marine atmosphere in Nansha Islands,China

The corrosion behavior of pure copper exposed to the atmosphere of Nansha Islands for 21 months was studied by mass loss method,composition analysis,morphology observation and electrochemical measurements.The results showed that the average corrosion rate of copper exposed for one year was approximately 7.85μm/a,implying that Nansha Islands was classified as a corrosion category of CX.The structure and properties of the corrosion product layer generated on the front and back sides of the exposed sample differed significantly.The inner corrosion product layer(Cu2O)on the front side was relatively thick and dense,whereas the outer product layer(Cu2Cl(OH)3)was extremely thin.However,the outer product layer on the back side was thicker than the inner layer.Electrochemical measurements indicated that the protection afforded by the corrosion product layer on the front side was improved gradually,while that on the back side was deteriorated.

A Study on Snowstorm Weather in Coastal Area of Western Antarctic

In this paper, based on the observational data of 1995 in the Chinese Antarctic Great Wall Station the snowstorm is studied synoptically. It is found that there are two kinds of snowstorms with different physical characteristics and that the happening of snowstorm is always accompanied by a near-ground level inversion layer. The function of the inversion layer is analyzed, too. It is indicated that the strong ESE-wind type snowstorm is mainly caused by katabatic wind and gradient wind together. This idea is new and different from the general concept that there is no katabatic wind in the western Antarctic area.

Simulation of a Freezing Rain and Snow Storm Event over Southern China in January 2008 Using RIEMS 2.0

The Regional Integrated Environmental Model System （RIEMS 2.0） with NCEP Reanalysis II is utilized to simulate the severe freezing rain and snow storm event over southern China in January 2008, which caused severe damage in the region. The relationships between the freezing rain process and the large-scale cir- culation, in terms of the westerly and low-level jets, water vapor transportation, and northerly wind area/intensity indices, were analyzed to tmderstand the mechanisms of the freezing rain occurrence. The results indicate the fol- lowing： （1） RIEMS 2.0 reproduced the pattern of precipi- tation in January 2008 well, especially for the temporal evolution of daily precipitation averaged over the Yangtze River valley and southern China; （2） RIEMS 2.0 repro- duced the persistent trough in the South Branch of the westerlies, of which the southwesterly currents trans- ported abundant moisture into southern China; （3） RIEMS 2.0 reasonably reproduced the pattern of frequencies of light and moderate rain, although it overestimated the frequency of rain in southern China. This study shows that RIEMS 2.0 can be feasibly applied to study extreme weather and climate events in East Asia.

Study on Causes of a Local Heavy Rainstorm Process in Shandong Province

Based on conventional meteorological observation data, NECP 1°×1° reanalysis data, precipitation data from automatic weather stations on the ground, FY- 2E satellite cloud images, and so forth, the circulation background, formation mechanism and features of a satellite cloud image of a local heavy rainstorm process in Shandong Province during August 8-9 in 2010 were analyzed. The results showed that the slow eastward movement of short-wave trough at middle and high latitudes, the stable maintenance of the subtropical high and ground cyclone, and the strong development of extra low-level southeast flow were large-scale circulation back- grounds of occurrence of the rainstorm; the rainstorm generated under the effects of mesoscale echo clusters or echo belts and mesoscale convective cloud clusters; precipitation mainly happened in periods when convective cloud clusters generated, developed and matured, and short-time heavy precipitation mainly appeared in the west, southwest and south of convective cloud clusters; extra low-level southeast flow was very conducive to the occurrence of short-time heavy precipitation; mesoscale convective systems rose in the whole troposphere, and the constant enhancement of low-level θse frontal zone provided favorable unstable energy for the occurrence of convective heavy rainfall.

Mountain Effect and Differences in Storm Floods between Northern and Southern Sources of the Songhua River Basin

In this study, the differences in annual rainstorm changes in the Second Songhua River Basin and the Nenjiang River basin and their causes were compared from the perspective of mountain effects. The following results were drawn: (1) Altitude effect is the primary factor leading to increased rainstorms in the southern source; (2) Slope effect primarily leads to differences of the weather systems in the two sources, and thus cause the difference of the rainstorms; (3) Slope effect is responsible for the greater fluctuation in the observed floods in the southern source. These landform differences eventually lead to the differences in the characteristics of floods in the southern and northern sources. Commensurability method was used to identify the period of rainstorms in the southern and northern sources. The results showed that although rainstorms do not appear at the same time in the two sources they are characteristic of a 10 years' period in both areas. These results can serve as hydrological references for flood control and long-term flood disaster predictions.

Climate Disasters and Climate Variation of Little Ice Age in East Asia

In this paper, climate variation is reconstructed on the basis of the chronicles of weather disasters in Japan and China. There remain many rainstorm records in southern coast of Japan, and south-eastern coast of China. Both in Japan and China, many rainstorm disasters appeared in summer. But, they usually appeared one or two months later in Japan. The period of frequent windstorm damage occurrence in Little Ice Age differs among Japan and China, and it was caused by the change of atmospheric circulation. Cool summer period appeared around 1705, 1740, 1765, 1785, 1830, and 1845. It was generally cool before 1855, but it became warm after 1855. It corresponds with the sudden retreat of glaciers of European Alps.

COMPARISON OF CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON OUTBREAKS IN 2004 AND 2008

The South China Sea summer monsoon is an important system affecting the weather and climate in China;its outbreak and evolution vary from year to year.Using the reanalysis data from the U.S.National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),USA,we analyze the circulation pattern,precipitation distribution,convection,temperature,and humidity around the monsoon outbreaks in 2004 and 2008.Results show that the monsoon had a late onset in 2004 (May 19) but an early outbreak in 2008 (May 4).Prior to the monsoon outbreak in 2008,cross-equatorial flows in Somalia were weaker than in 2004,subtropical precipitation did not arrive in southern China as it did in 2004,and the strongest convection was located more southward than in 2004.The results also indicate that accumulated rainfall in the Indochina Peninsula was about 61% of that in 2004 during a period of 25 days leading up to the monsoon outbreak,causing differences in land surface processes and then different activity levels for the summer monsoon.Post-onset warm and humid conditions in 2008 (2004) maintained through the end of October (mid-September),while the summer monsoon lasted longer in 2008 than in 2004.

Tropical storm-forced near-inertial energy dissipation in the southeast continental shelf region of Hainan Island

Near-inertial motion is an important dynamic process in the upper ocean and plays a significant role in mass, heat, and energy transport across the thermocline. In this study, the dissipation of wind-induced near-inertial energy in the thermocline is investigated by using observation data collected in July and August 2005 during the tropical storm Washi by a moored system at(19°35′N, 112°E) in the continental shelf region off Hainan Island. In the observation period, the near-inertial part dominated the observed ocean kinetic energy and about 80% of the near-inertial energy dissipated in the upper layer. Extremely strong turbulent mixing induced by near-inertial wave was observed in the thermocline, where the turbulent energy dissipation rate increased by two orders of magnitude above the background level. It is found that the energy loss of near-inertial waves in the thermocline is mainly in the large-scales. This is different from the previous hypothesis based on "Kolmogorov cascade" turbulence theory that the kinetic energy is dissipated mainly by small-scale motions.

Monitoring traveling ionospheric disturbances using the GPS network around China during the geomagnetic storm on 28 May 2011

Larger-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances （LSTIDs） are studied using the total electron content （TEC） data observed from 246 GPS receivers in and around China during the medium storm on 28 May 2011. It is the first attempt to get the two-dimensional TEC perturbation maps in China. Two LSTID events are detected： one is in southwestern China before mid- night propagating from low to middle latitude to the distance of about 1200 km with the phase front extending to about 500 km, and the other is in northeastern China after midnight propagating from middle to low latitudes to the distance of about 1200 km with the phase front extending to nearly 1400 km. By using the multichannel maximum-entropy method, we get the propagation parameters of these two LSTIDs. The LSTID that occurs before midnight has a higher horizontal phase velocity and a larger damping rate corresponding to the after midnight LSTID, and this may be caused by the relatively large vertical back- ground TECo and high atmospheric temperature in the southwest of China before midnight. According to the variations of magnetic H component observed in high latitudes, the source region for the after midnight LSTID is likely to be located 1400-2600 km east of 140E and north of 42N; the before midnight LSTID is propably excited by the atmospheric gravity waves （AGWs） generated by the Joule heating of the equatorial electrojet.