On the basis of data from the period 1971-2007, and by applying trend analysis, a study on formation, disappearance and duration of lake ice cover on the Morskie Oko Lake in the Tatra Mountains in southern Poland was ...On the basis of data from the period 1971-2007, and by applying trend analysis, a study on formation, disappearance and duration of lake ice cover on the Morskie Oko Lake in the Tatra Mountains in southern Poland was carried out. The results show decreasing trends in the maximum thickness of winter lake ice cover and in duration of lake ice phenomena, while air temperature recorded at the same period at the foot of the Tatra Mountains shows increasing trend. There are strong relationships between the course of lake ice phenomena and air temperature.展开更多
The maximum entropy distribution, which consists of various recognized theoretical distributions, is a better curve to estimate the design thickness of sea ice. Method of moment and empirical curve fitting method are ...The maximum entropy distribution, which consists of various recognized theoretical distributions, is a better curve to estimate the design thickness of sea ice. Method of moment and empirical curve fitting method are common-used parameter estimation methods for maximum entropy distribution. In this study, we propose to use the particle swarm optimization method as a new parameter estimation method for the maximum entropy distribution, which has the advantage to avoid deviation introduced by simplifications made in other methods. We conducted a case study to fit the hindcasted thickness of the sea ice in the Liaodong Bay of Bohai Sea using these three parameter-estimation methods for the maximum entropy distribution. All methods implemented in this study pass the K-S tests at 0.05 significant level. In terms of the average sum of deviation squares, the empirical curve fitting method provides the best fit for the original data, while the method of moment provides the worst. Among all three methods, the particle swarm optimization method predicts the largest thickness of the sea ice for a same return period. As a result, we recommend using the particle swarm optimization method for the maximum entropy distribution for offshore structures mainly influenced by the sea ice in winter, but using the empirical curve fitting method to reduce the cost in the design of temporary and economic buildings.展开更多
文摘On the basis of data from the period 1971-2007, and by applying trend analysis, a study on formation, disappearance and duration of lake ice cover on the Morskie Oko Lake in the Tatra Mountains in southern Poland was carried out. The results show decreasing trends in the maximum thickness of winter lake ice cover and in duration of lake ice phenomena, while air temperature recorded at the same period at the foot of the Tatra Mountains shows increasing trend. There are strong relationships between the course of lake ice phenomena and air temperature.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 51279186, 51479183, 51509227)the Shandong Province Natural Science Foundation, China (No. ZR2014EEQ030)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No. 201413003)
文摘The maximum entropy distribution, which consists of various recognized theoretical distributions, is a better curve to estimate the design thickness of sea ice. Method of moment and empirical curve fitting method are common-used parameter estimation methods for maximum entropy distribution. In this study, we propose to use the particle swarm optimization method as a new parameter estimation method for the maximum entropy distribution, which has the advantage to avoid deviation introduced by simplifications made in other methods. We conducted a case study to fit the hindcasted thickness of the sea ice in the Liaodong Bay of Bohai Sea using these three parameter-estimation methods for the maximum entropy distribution. All methods implemented in this study pass the K-S tests at 0.05 significant level. In terms of the average sum of deviation squares, the empirical curve fitting method provides the best fit for the original data, while the method of moment provides the worst. Among all three methods, the particle swarm optimization method predicts the largest thickness of the sea ice for a same return period. As a result, we recommend using the particle swarm optimization method for the maximum entropy distribution for offshore structures mainly influenced by the sea ice in winter, but using the empirical curve fitting method to reduce the cost in the design of temporary and economic buildings.
