The southwesterly low-level jet （LLJ） over southeast China in the summer of 2003 is analyzed in this study. The analysis is based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） Final （FNL） operation...The southwesterly low-level jet （LLJ） over southeast China in the summer of 2003 is analyzed in this study. The analysis is based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） Final （FNL） operational global analysis data on 1.0-1.0-degree grids at 6-h intervals. The major criteria for choosing the LLJ ineluded the following： a maximum wind speed equal to or greater than 12.0 m s-1, a wind direction of between 180° and 270°, and the height of wind maximum at 900-700 hPa, not confined to single pressure level. The results show that the LLJs over southeast China dominate at 850 and 800 hPa. These LLJs are closely associated with the topography of this area and tend to locate regions with large terrain gradients, including the northeastern and eastem Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Under the influence of mid-latitude westerly winds, the LLJs above 750 hPa move northward to the Yangtze-Huai River Basin. Com- pared to the ten-year （2000-2009） mean climate condi- tions, the LLJs in the warm season of summer 2003 were exceptionally active and strong, as reflected by the posi- tive anomalies of LLJ occurrence numbers and wind speed. In addition, the 2003 LLJs showed strong diurnal variation, especially at pressure levels below 800 hPa. The majority of the LLJs appeared between midnight and the early moming hours （before 8 a.m.）. Finally, the summary of LLJ grid numbers indicates that more than 80% of LLJs in June and July 2003 occurred within the 33-d rainy period. Thus, these LLJs are directly related to the anomalously heavy rainfall in the Yangtze-Huai River Basin.展开更多
Decadal variations of extreme tropical cyclones （TCs） influencing China were. investigated based on the tracks, landfall information, precipitation and wind data during 1949-2009. The extreme landfall date events ar...Decadal variations of extreme tropical cyclones （TCs） influencing China were. investigated based on the tracks, landfall information, precipitation and wind data during 1949-2009. The extreme landfall date events are less in the 1970s and 2000s. The number of extreme events of maximum wind speed and minimum pressure near TC＇s center reached the highest in the 2000s. The extreme rain duration events had the highest frequence in the 1970s, and the extreme strong wind duration events had the maximum frequence in the 1980s. The number of stations whereat the extreme maximum daily precipitation or process precipitation is observed, is the largest in the 1960s, and the number of stations whereat daily maximum wind speed events axe observed, is the largest in the 1980s.展开更多
Accurate forecasting of wind velocity can improve the economic dispatch and safe operation of the power system. Support vector machine (SVM) has been proved to be an efficient approach for forecasting. According to th...Accurate forecasting of wind velocity can improve the economic dispatch and safe operation of the power system. Support vector machine (SVM) has been proved to be an efficient approach for forecasting. According to the analysis with support vector machine method, the drawback of determining the parameters only by experts' experience should be improved. After a detailed description of the methodology of SVM and simulated annealing, an improved algorithm was proposed for the automatic optimization of parameters using SVM method. An example has proved that the proposed method can efficiently select the parameters of the SVM method. And by optimizing the parameters, the forecasting accuracy of the max wind velocity increases by 34.45%, which indicates that the new SASVM model improves the forecasting accuracy.展开更多
The probability distributions of wind speeds and the availability of wind turbines were investigated by considering the vertical wind shear. Based on the wind speed data at the standard height observed at a wind farm,...The probability distributions of wind speeds and the availability of wind turbines were investigated by considering the vertical wind shear. Based on the wind speed data at the standard height observed at a wind farm, the power-law process was used to simulate the wind speeds at a hub height of 60 m. The Weibull and Rayleigh distributions were chosen to express the wind speeds at two different heights. The parameters in the model were estimated via the least square(LS) method and the maximum likelihood estimation(MLE) method, respectively. An adjusted MLE approach was also presented for parameter estimation. The main indices of wind energy characteristics were calculated based on observational wind speed data. A case study based on the data of Hexi area, Gansu Province of China was given. The results show that MLE method generally outperforms LS method for parameter estimation, and Weibull distribution is more appropriate to describe the wind speed at the hub height.展开更多
Climatological patterns in wind fluctuations on time scales of 1–10 h are analyzed at a meteorological mast at the Yangmeishan wind farm, Yunnan Province,China, using a 2-yr time series of 10-min wind speed observati...Climatological patterns in wind fluctuations on time scales of 1–10 h are analyzed at a meteorological mast at the Yangmeishan wind farm, Yunnan Province,China, using a 2-yr time series of 10-min wind speed observations. For analyzing the spectral properties of nonstationary wind fluctuations in mountain terrain, the Hilbert-Huang transform(HHT) is applied to investigate climatological patterns between wind variability and several variables including time of year, time of day, wind direction, and pressure tendency. Compared with that for offshore sites, the wind variability at Yangmeishan wind farm has a more distinct diurnal cycle, but the seasonal discrepancies and the differences according to directions are not distinct, and the synoptic influences on wind variability are weaker. There is enhanced variability in spring and winter compared with summer and autumn. For flow from the main direction sector, the maximum wind variability is observed in spring. And the severe wind fluctuations are more common when the pressure tendency is rising.展开更多
Since January 2012,the National Satellite Ocean Application Service has released operational wind products from the HY-2A scatterometer(HY2-SCAT),using the maximum-likelihood estimation(MLE) method with a median filte...Since January 2012,the National Satellite Ocean Application Service has released operational wind products from the HY-2A scatterometer(HY2-SCAT),using the maximum-likelihood estimation(MLE) method with a median filter. However,the quality of the winds retrieved from HY2-SCAT depends on the sub-satellite cross-track location,and poor azimuth separation in the nadir region causes particularly low-quality wind products in this region. However,an improved scheme,i.e.,a multiple solution scheme(MSS) with a two-dimensional variational analysis method(2DVAR),has been proposed by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute to overcome such problems. The present study used the MSS in combination with a 2DVAR technique to retrieve wind data from HY2-SCAT observations. The parameter of the empirical probability function,used to indicate the probability of each ambiguous solution being the "true" wind,was estimated based on HY2-SCAT data,and the 2DVAR method used to remove ambiguity in the wind direction. A comparison between MSS and ECMWF winds showed larger deviations at both low wind speeds(below 4 m/s) and high wind speeds(above 17 m/s),whereas the wind direction exhibited lower bias and good stability,even at high wind speeds greater than 24 m/s. The two HY2-SCAT wind data sets,retrieved by the standard MLE and the MSS procedures were compared with buoy observations. The RMS error of wind speed and direction were 1.3 m/s and 17.4°,and 1.3 m/s and 24.0° for the MSS and MLE wind data,respectively,indicating that MSS wind data had better agreement with the buoy data. Furthermore,the distributions of wind fields for a case study of typhoon Soulik were compared,which showed that MSS winds were spatially more consistent and meteorologically better balanced than MLE winds.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40905049)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program, Grant No. 2010AA012304)+1 种基金the China Mete-orological Administration for the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY200906020)the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) State Key Laboratory special fund
文摘The southwesterly low-level jet （LLJ） over southeast China in the summer of 2003 is analyzed in this study. The analysis is based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） Final （FNL） operational global analysis data on 1.0-1.0-degree grids at 6-h intervals. The major criteria for choosing the LLJ ineluded the following： a maximum wind speed equal to or greater than 12.0 m s-1, a wind direction of between 180° and 270°, and the height of wind maximum at 900-700 hPa, not confined to single pressure level. The results show that the LLJs over southeast China dominate at 850 and 800 hPa. These LLJs are closely associated with the topography of this area and tend to locate regions with large terrain gradients, including the northeastern and eastem Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau. Under the influence of mid-latitude westerly winds, the LLJs above 750 hPa move northward to the Yangtze-Huai River Basin. Com- pared to the ten-year （2000-2009） mean climate condi- tions, the LLJs in the warm season of summer 2003 were exceptionally active and strong, as reflected by the posi- tive anomalies of LLJ occurrence numbers and wind speed. In addition, the 2003 LLJs showed strong diurnal variation, especially at pressure levels below 800 hPa. The majority of the LLJs appeared between midnight and the early moming hours （before 8 a.m.）. Finally, the summary of LLJ grid numbers indicates that more than 80% of LLJs in June and July 2003 occurred within the 33-d rainy period. Thus, these LLJs are directly related to the anomalously heavy rainfall in the Yangtze-Huai River Basin.
基金supported by the National Key Technology Research and Development Program(No. 2008BAC44B03,2007BAC29B04)
文摘Decadal variations of extreme tropical cyclones （TCs） influencing China were. investigated based on the tracks, landfall information, precipitation and wind data during 1949-2009. The extreme landfall date events are less in the 1970s and 2000s. The number of extreme events of maximum wind speed and minimum pressure near TC＇s center reached the highest in the 2000s. The extreme rain duration events had the highest frequence in the 1970s, and the extreme strong wind duration events had the maximum frequence in the 1980s. The number of stations whereat the extreme maximum daily precipitation or process precipitation is observed, is the largest in the 1960s, and the number of stations whereat daily maximum wind speed events axe observed, is the largest in the 1980s.
基金Project(71071052) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(JB2011097) supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China
文摘Accurate forecasting of wind velocity can improve the economic dispatch and safe operation of the power system. Support vector machine (SVM) has been proved to be an efficient approach for forecasting. According to the analysis with support vector machine method, the drawback of determining the parameters only by experts' experience should be improved. After a detailed description of the methodology of SVM and simulated annealing, an improved algorithm was proposed for the automatic optimization of parameters using SVM method. An example has proved that the proposed method can efficiently select the parameters of the SVM method. And by optimizing the parameters, the forecasting accuracy of the max wind velocity increases by 34.45%, which indicates that the new SASVM model improves the forecasting accuracy.
基金Project(51165019)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(1308RJYA018)supported by Gansu Provincial Natural Science Fund,ChinaProject(2013-4-110)supported by Lanzhou Technology Development Program,China
文摘The probability distributions of wind speeds and the availability of wind turbines were investigated by considering the vertical wind shear. Based on the wind speed data at the standard height observed at a wind farm, the power-law process was used to simulate the wind speeds at a hub height of 60 m. The Weibull and Rayleigh distributions were chosen to express the wind speeds at two different heights. The parameters in the model were estimated via the least square(LS) method and the maximum likelihood estimation(MLE) method, respectively. An adjusted MLE approach was also presented for parameter estimation. The main indices of wind energy characteristics were calculated based on observational wind speed data. A case study based on the data of Hexi area, Gansu Province of China was given. The results show that MLE method generally outperforms LS method for parameter estimation, and Weibull distribution is more appropriate to describe the wind speed at the hub height.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 91215302 and 41101045)the "One-Three-Five" Strategic Planning of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. Y267014601)
文摘Climatological patterns in wind fluctuations on time scales of 1–10 h are analyzed at a meteorological mast at the Yangmeishan wind farm, Yunnan Province,China, using a 2-yr time series of 10-min wind speed observations. For analyzing the spectral properties of nonstationary wind fluctuations in mountain terrain, the Hilbert-Huang transform(HHT) is applied to investigate climatological patterns between wind variability and several variables including time of year, time of day, wind direction, and pressure tendency. Compared with that for offshore sites, the wind variability at Yangmeishan wind farm has a more distinct diurnal cycle, but the seasonal discrepancies and the differences according to directions are not distinct, and the synoptic influences on wind variability are weaker. There is enhanced variability in spring and winter compared with summer and autumn. For flow from the main direction sector, the maximum wind variability is observed in spring. And the severe wind fluctuations are more common when the pressure tendency is rising.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(No.2013AA09A505)the Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers(No.U1406404)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41106152)he National Key Technology R&D Program of China(No.2013BAD13B01)
文摘Since January 2012,the National Satellite Ocean Application Service has released operational wind products from the HY-2A scatterometer(HY2-SCAT),using the maximum-likelihood estimation(MLE) method with a median filter. However,the quality of the winds retrieved from HY2-SCAT depends on the sub-satellite cross-track location,and poor azimuth separation in the nadir region causes particularly low-quality wind products in this region. However,an improved scheme,i.e.,a multiple solution scheme(MSS) with a two-dimensional variational analysis method(2DVAR),has been proposed by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute to overcome such problems. The present study used the MSS in combination with a 2DVAR technique to retrieve wind data from HY2-SCAT observations. The parameter of the empirical probability function,used to indicate the probability of each ambiguous solution being the "true" wind,was estimated based on HY2-SCAT data,and the 2DVAR method used to remove ambiguity in the wind direction. A comparison between MSS and ECMWF winds showed larger deviations at both low wind speeds(below 4 m/s) and high wind speeds(above 17 m/s),whereas the wind direction exhibited lower bias and good stability,even at high wind speeds greater than 24 m/s. The two HY2-SCAT wind data sets,retrieved by the standard MLE and the MSS procedures were compared with buoy observations. The RMS error of wind speed and direction were 1.3 m/s and 17.4°,and 1.3 m/s and 24.0° for the MSS and MLE wind data,respectively,indicating that MSS wind data had better agreement with the buoy data. Furthermore,the distributions of wind fields for a case study of typhoon Soulik were compared,which showed that MSS winds were spatially more consistent and meteorologically better balanced than MLE winds.
