数理金融到行为金融——理想世界到现实世界

行为金融成为近些年金融研究的热点,大有取代数理金融之势,梳理近50年来数理金融到行为金融的发展历程,探究了数理金融和行为金融的主要区别与联系。数理金融基于严格假设前提,探究经济个体的最优决策行为,行为金融对数理金融的假设前提提出修正,探究在有限理性和非完全有效市场下的投资者真实决策行为。前者基于理想,后者基于现实;前者探究的是理想情况下应该怎么样,后者探究的是真实情况背后的原因;前者是一种数学推理的逻辑,后者是一种逆向发现的逻辑,后者比前者更切合实践,从而对现实世界具有更强的实践指导作用。

重新审视特质论、认知论及有效导向理性工具对创业者及创业过程的作用

本文回顾了创业者特质论发展,认为特质论应正确理解为品质论,并在创业过程前段尤其是创业意图和创业精神的塑造上具有积极的作用。特质论引发的认知论研究,对于创业者提高应对复杂环境的概念化能力和决策简化机制提供了借鉴。对于突破资源限制和不确定环境的创业者,建议尝试效理性导向的创业思维和行动方针,可能较传统的因果导向战略思维和针对既定情形的管理工具更具有实践性和指导意义。

Porous-grain–upper-boundary model and its application to Tarim Basin carbonates

Most of the carbonates in the Tarim Basin in northwest China are low-porosity and low-permeability rocks. Owing to the complexity of porosity in carbonates, conventional rock- physics models do not describe the relation between velocity and porosity for the Tarim Basin carbonates well. We propose the porous-grain-upper-boundary （PGU） model for estimating the relation between velocity and porosity for low-porosity carbonates. In this model, the carbonate sediments are treated as packed media of porous elastic grains, and the carbonate pores are divided into isolated and connected pores The PGU model is modified from the porous-grain-stiff-sand （PGST） model by replacing the critical porosity with the more practical isolated porosity. In the implementation, the effective elastic constants of the porous grains are calculated by using the differential effective medium （DEM） model. Then, the elastic constants of connected porous grains in dry rocks are calculated by using the modified upper Hashin-Shtrikman bound. The application to the Tarim carbonates shows that relative to other conventional effective medium models the PGU model matches the well log data well.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of early veno-venous hemofiltration for severe acute pancreatitis in China

AIM： To determine the most cost-effective hemofiltration modality for early management of severe acute pancreatitis （SAP） in China. METHODS： We carried out a search of Pub-Medline and Chinese Biomedical Disk database. Controlled clinical trials on Chinese population were included in the analysis. The four decision branches that were analyzed were： continuous or long-term veno-venous hemofiltration （CVVH/LVVH）, short-term veno-venous hemofiltration （SVVH）, SVVH plus peritoneal dialysis （PD）, and non-hemofiltration control group. The effectiveness of the technique was determined by survival rate, complications prevention and surgery preservation. The total cost of hospitalization was also assessed. RESULTS： The SVVH only technique was the least costly modality, $5809 （44449 RMB）, and was selected as the baseline treatment modality. SVVH only arm achieved the lowest C/E ratio in terms of overall survival, complications prevention and surgery preservation. In incremental cost-effectiveness analysis, the CWH/ LVVH only and the control arms were inferior to other techniques. Sensitivity analysis showed SVVH only and SVVH plus PD arms overlapped in C/survival ratio. CONCLUSION： The role of early veno-venous hemofiltration as an alternative therapy for SAP remains controversial. However, we propose that early use of short-term high-volume veno-venous hemofiltration would have a beneficial impact on the management of SAP.

放松退耕地间种约束的政策合理性与有效性检验——基于贵州省新一轮退耕还林的农户调查

新一轮退耕还林在保护生态环境和促进农户增收方面被赋予重要期待。本文基于范围经济理论,利用贵州省的退耕农户调查数据,测算农户的间种的范围经济和范围利润水平,利用似不相关回归和面板Tobit模型分析间种对农户范围经济、范围利润和经济林管护的影响。研究发现,放松退耕地间种约束具有一定的合理性,但其有效性的发挥还需进行相应的政策调整。具体表现为:(1)双作物间种的范围经济水平高于单作物间种,经济作物间种的范围利润水平最高。具体的,"经济林+豆类+薯类"的范围经济值最高,平均值为0.835;"经济林+豆类"和"经济林+烤烟"的范围经济水平最低,平均值分别为0.205和0.142;"经济林+豆类"的范围利润值最低,平均为-0.457,"经济林+烤烟"的范围利润值最高,平均为0.908。(2)间种强度与范围经济、范围利润之间存在"倒U型"关系,间种并非越多越好;间种强度每增加1%,经济林的成活率会增加3.0%,但随着间种强度的增加,经济林的成活率将逐步下降;(3)相比间种粮食作物,种植经济作物更不利于经济林的管护。本文研究结果可为巩固新一轮退耕还林成果提供现实依据和理论参考。

EXPRESSION OF MASPIN AND KAI1 AND THEIR CLINICOPATHOLOGICAL SIGNIFICANCE IN CARCINOGENESIS AND PROGRESSION OF GASTRIC CANCER

To investigate the roles of maspin and kai1 expression in tumorigenesis and progression of gastric cancer. Methods Maspin and kai1 expressions were detected in normal gastric mucosa (n = 182), gastric dysplasia (n = 69), and gastric cancer (n = 113) by immunohisto-chemistry. Their expressions were compared with clinicopathological parameters of tumors. Relationship between maspin and kai1 expression was also concerned in gastric cancer. Results The positive rates of maspin expression were 79.8% (145/182), 75.4% (52/69), and 50.4% (57/113) in normal gastric mucosa, gastric dysplasia, and gastric cancer, while those of kai1 expression were 81.9% (149/182), 65.2% (49/69), and 58.4% (66/113) in corresponding tissues respectively. Gastric cancer less frequently expressed maspin than the normal gastric mucosa and gastric dysplasia (P < 0.05), while dysplasia and cancer showed less frequent expression of kai1 than normal mucosa (P < 0.05). Maspin expression showed negative association with invasive depth, metastasis, Lauren’s and histological classifications (P < 0.05), but not with tumor size, Borrmann’s classification, growth pattern or TNM staging (P > 0.05). Kai1 expression was negatively correlated with invasive depth, metastasis, growth pattern, Lauren’s and histo-logical classifications (P < 0.05), but not with tumor size, Borrmann’s classification or TNM staging (P > 0.05). Maspin and kai1 were collaboratively expressed in gastric cancer (P < 0.05). Conclusions Down-regulated expressions of maspin and kai1 play an important role in gastric carcinogenesis. Abnormal expression of maspin and kai1 might have inhibitory effects on invasion and metastasis of gastric cancer and act as an effe-ctive and objective marker to indicate the pathobiological behaviors of gastric cancer.

Effective stress law for rock masses and its application in impoundment analysis based on deformation reinforcement theory

Reservoir impoundment is related to several hydraulic engineering concerns,including irreversible valley contractions,landslides and reservoir-induced earthquakes.However,these phenomena,such as valley contractions,are hardly to be explained by the conventional method.The scientific understanding of water effects during impoundment and their hazards to hydraulic structure are needed.The effective stress law for fissured rock masses is introduced in the elasto-plastic model employing the Drucker-Prager criterion and implemented in the three dimension(3D)nonlinear finite element method(FEM)program Three-dimensional FINite Element(TFINE).The slope deforms towards river-way during impoundment since the increasing pore pressure in fissures changes stress state and leads to additional plastic deformation in the rock materials.The value of Biot coefficient and the influence of water on rock materials are discussed in detail.Thus,the mechanism of slope deformation during the impoundment of Jinping-I arch dam is revealed,and the deformation is accurately measured.The application of the effective stress law provides a method to consider stress assessment,deformation evaluation and stability estimate of hydraulic structures during the impoundment process.This is a beneficial exploration and an improvement of hydraulic engineering design.

Effect of Organic Manure Application on Physical Properties and Humus Characteristics of Paddy Soil

Long-term field experiment was established in 1978 on a coastal paddy soil to determine the effect of applicationof pig manure, rice straw and chemical N fertilizer on the physical property and humus characteristics of soil . Resultsshowed that the porosity, the microstructural coefficient, the reactivities of organic C and N, the ΔlogK value, thedegree of oxidation stability, the contents of O-alkyl C and alkyl C, and the ratio of aliphatic C to aromatic C ofhumic acid from soils received organic manure increased, whereas, the ratio of < 10 μm to >10 μm ofmicroaggregates, the humification degree of humus, the degree of organo-mineral complexation, the number-averagemolecular weight, the C/ H ratio. the contents of carboxyl and aromatic C of HAs in them decreased. These resultsindicated that the application of organic manure not only improved the physical property of the paddy soil but alsomade the HA more aliphatic in structure and younger in origin.

Development of an assessment scale for treatment compliance in type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Turkish population:Psychometric evaluation

Objectives:Compliance to treatment is important for the management of type 2 diabetes mellitus(DM)and the prevention of complications.The purpose of the study was to develop a scale and test its psychometric properties for the treatment compliance of the diabetic Turkish population.Methods:This multicenter study was conducted in four training and research hospitals.The convenience sample consisted of 350 patients with type 2 DM.The items of the scale were determined after a literature review and qualitative interviews with the patients.Items were psychometrically analyzed.Content validity of the scale was evaluated using opinions from experts and a pilot study.Principal component analysis and the varimax rotation technique were used to evaluate construct validity in exploratory factor analysis.Criterion validity was evaluated with the Attitudes Towards Diabetes Scale,a subgroup of the Diabetes Care Profile scale.Reliability was evaluated with Cronbach'sαcoefficient and test-retest analysis of internal consistency.Results:The scale consisted of 7 factors that explained 47.36%of the total variance.The KMO test was conducted to determine whether the sample size was sufficient before the factor analysis.The KMO test result of the data was 0.75.The Cronbach'sαvalue of the sample was 0.77.The test-retest reliability analysis result was r=0.991.We found a positive correlation between total scores of the developed scale and the Attitudes Towards Diabetes Scale(r=0.31).Conclusion:The results of the study demonstrated that the scale with 30 items is a valid and reliable scale for the evaluation of patient compliance with type 2 DM treatment.Thus,by using this scale,nurses and healthcare providers can evaluate the treatment compliance of patients with type 2 DM.

On Effectiveness of Protocol Creating Maximum Entanglement of Two Charge-Phase Qubits by Cavity Field

We revisit the protocols to create maximally entangled states between two Josephson junction （33） charge phase qubits coupled to a microwave field in a cavity as a quantum data bus. We analyze a novel mechanism of quantum decoherence due to the adiabatic entanglement between qubits and the data bus, the off-resonance microwave field. We show that even if the variable of the data bus can be adiabatically eliminated, the entanglement between the qubits and data bus remains and can decohere the superposition of two-particle state. Fortunately we can construct a decoherencefree subspace of two-dimension to against this adiabatic decoherence. To carry out the analytic study for this decoherence problem, we develop Frohlich transformation to re-derive the effective Hamiltonian of these systems, which is equivalent to that obtained from the adiabatic elimination approach.

Hendra Virus Re-visited

Hendra virus,a novel member of the family Paramyxovirus that has emerged from bats in Australia,causes fatal disease in livestock and humans. Eleven spillover events have been identified since the first description of the virus in 1994,resulting in a total of 37 equine cases and six human cases. All human cases have been attributed to exposure to infected horses;there is no evidence of bat-to-human or human-to-human transmission. Low infectivity and a high case fatality rate are features of Hendra virus infection in both horses and humans. The temporal pattern of spillover events suggests seasonal factors(plausibly be environmental,biological or ecological) as the proximate triggers for spillover. Minimisation of the future occurrence and impact of Hendra virus infections requires an understanding of the ecology of flying foxes,of virus infection dynamics in flying foxes,and of the factors that promote spillover. Management strategies seek to minimize the opportunity for effective contact between bats and horses,and limit potential horse-to-horse and horse-to-human transmission. Incomplete knowledge of the ecology of the virus,of the proximate factors associated with spillover,and the inherent difficulties of effectively managing wild populations,preclude a management approach targeted at bats.

Time Varying Gravitational Constant G via Entropic Force

If the uncertainty principle applies to the Verlinde entropic idea, it leads to a new term in the Newton＇s second law of mechanics in the Planck＇s scale. This curious velocity dependent term inspires a frictional feature of the gravity. In this short letter we address that this new term modifies the effective mass and the Newtonian constant as the time dependent quantities. Thus we must have a running on the value of the effective mass on the particle mass m near the holographic screen and the G. This result has a nigh relation with the Dirac hypothesis about the large numbers hypothesis （L.N.H.）. We propose that the corrected entropie terms via Verlinde idea can be brought as a holographic evidence for the authenticity of the Dirac idea.

Controlling the Effects and Improving the Interview Quality

The interview is an important segment and a usual means of choosing staffs, and the interview＇s quality directly influences the result of recruitment. This composition has posed and analyzed eight psychology errors, including first-sight effect, halo effect, casting effect, order effect, contrast effect, convergence effect, induce effect and fatigue effect. The interviewers should try their best to avoid them and ensure the interview＇s quality,

Effective-Field Theory on High Spin Systems with Biaxial Crystal Field

Based on the effective-field theory with self-spin correlations and the differential operator technique, physical properties of the spin-2 system with biaxial crystal field on the .simple cubic, body-centered cubic, as well as faced-centered lattice have been studied. The influences of the external longitudinal magnetic field on the magnetization, internal energy, specific heat, and susceptibility have been discussed in detail The phenomenon that the magnetization in the ground state shows quantum effects produced by the biaxial transverse crystal field has been found.

新时期中央银行沟通方式探析

近年来,预期管理逐渐成为中央银行实施宏观调控的主要内容和执行货币政策的关键,中央银行沟通作为一种新型货币政策工具,能最为直接、有效地影响公众预期。当前,随着信息技术的发展,从沟通渠道、受众、溢出效应等方面来看,央行沟通面临许多新变化、新挑战。本文通过对发达国家央行通行的一些做法与我国央行做法进行对比分析,从持续完善沟通框架、有效利用各种平台、采取差异化沟通方式等方面对强化央行沟通提出政策建议。

Satellite Retrieval of a Strong Hailstorm Process

A case of hailstorm process occurring on 24 June 2006 in northwestern China was studied using satellite retrieval methodology. The particle effective radius (re) in the cloud tops was calculated by the reflectance in the 3.7 μm channel, and cloud-top microphysical properties were vividly represented using the RGB visual multispectral classification scheme. The microphysical zones of clouds and the processes of hail formation and develop-ment are inferred using the relations of cloud-top temperature (T) versus re for the tops of convective clouds. The results show that particle effective radius was smaller near the cloud base of hailstorm. There was a deep zone of diffusional droplet growth at the low level where the particles grew slowly with height, and there existed an evident area of small ice particles in the cloud top, suggesting the existence of a strong updraft in the clouds. The low glaciated temperature indicated a great depth from the cloud base to the glaciation height, which provided a deep layer of supercooled water for hail growth.

A Concept Analysis of Continuity of Care in Nursing

Purpose： This paper is a report about the concept analysis of continuity of care, to get further understanding of continuity of care. Methods： The Walker and Avant concept analysis approach was applied in this paper. Results： The three attributes include： seamless transfer, flexible reaction and effective interaction. The antecedents were changed needs and patient centred care. In addition, the continuity of care had a significant effect on patients’ outcome, satisfaction and costs. Conclusions： This analysis provides nurses an understanding about continuity of care in both patient’s and care provider’s perspective. Continuity of care is a tailored services provided by care givers, which is an essential element of healthcare system.

Interval of effective time-step size for the numerical computation of nonlinear ordinary differential equations

The computational uncertainty principle states that the numerical computation of nonlinear ordinary differential equations（ODEs） should use appropriately sized time steps to obtain reliable solutions.However,the interval of effective step size（IES） has not been thoroughly explored theoretically.In this paper,by using a general estimation for the total error of the numerical solutions of ODEs,a method is proposed for determining an approximate IES by translating the functions for truncation and rounding errors.It also illustrates this process with an example.Moreover,the relationship between the IES and its approximation is found,and the relative error of the approximation with respect to the IES is given.In addition,variation in the IES with increasing integration time is studied,which can provide an explanation for the observed numerical results.The findings contribute to computational step-size choice for reliable numerical solutions.

Attenuation of Metal Bioavailability in Acidic Multi-Metal Contaminated Soil Treated with Fly Ash and Steel Slag

A pot experiment was conducted with multi-metal （Pb, Cd, Cu, and Zn） contaminated acidic soil to investigate changes in available metal burden resulting from the application of industrial wastes （fly ash and steel slag）. The efficiency of amendments- induced metal stabilization was evaluated by diffusive gradients in thin films （DGT）, sequential extraction, and plant uptake. The stability of remediation was assessed by an acidification test and by chemical equilibrium modeling. Addition of fly ash （20 g kg-1） and steel slag （3 g kg-1） resulted in similar increase in soil pH. Both amendments significantly decreased the concentrations of metals measured with DGT （CDGT） and the metal uptake by Oryza sativa L. Significant correlations were found between CDGT and the concentration of a combination of metal fractions （exchangeable, bound to carbonates, and bound to Fe/Mn oxides）, unraveling the labile species that participate in the flux of metal resupply. The capability of metal resupply, as reflected by the R （ratio of CDGT to pore water metal concentration） values, significantly decreased in the amended soils. The CDGT correlated well with the plant uptake, suggesting that DGT is a good indicator for bioavailability. Acidification raised the extractable metal concentration in amended soil but the concentration did not return to the pre-amendment level. Equilibrium modeling indicated that the soil amendments induced the precipitation of several Fe, A1 and Ca minerals, which may play a positive role in metal stabilization. Chemical stabilization with alkaline amendments could be an effective and stable soil remediation strategy for attenuating metal bioavailability and reducing plant metal uptake.

Responses of Different Physiological Indices for Maize(Zea mays) to Soil Water Availability

Knowledge of plant responses to soil water availability is essential for the development of effcient irrigation strategies.However,notably different results have been obtained in the past on the responses of various physiological indices for different plants to soil water availability.In this study,the responses of various plant processes to soil water availability were compared with data from pot and field plot experiments conducted on maize(Zea mays L.).Consistent results were obtained between pot and field plot experiments for the responses of various relative plant indices to changes in the fraction of available soil water(FASW).A threshold value,where the relative plant indices began to decrease with soil drying,and a lower water limit,where the decline of relative plant indices changed to a very slow rate,were found.Evaporative demand not only influenced the transpiration rate over a daily scale but also determined the difference in transpirational response to soil water availability among the transient,daily and seasonal time scales.At the seasonal scale,cumulative transpiration decreased linearly with soil drying,but the decrease of transpiration from FASW = 1 in response to water deficits did not affect dry weight until FASW = 0.75.On the other hand,the decrease in dry weight was comparable with plant height and leaf area.Therefore,the plant responses to soil water availability were notably different among various plant indices of maize and were influenced by the weather conditions.