政府消费与私人消费的期内替代和跨期替代——来自亚洲国家的面板协整分析

Whether fiscal policy on aggregate demand has the expected effectiveness is one of the most important problems for the authorities and the academia,so based on the recent developments of tests for the panel unit root and panel cointegration,this paper investigates the relationship between government consumption and private consumption by evaluating the inter-temporal elasticity of substitution and the intra-temporal elasticity of substitution between them for ten Asian countries.Panel cointegrating regression uncovers that a significant degree of substitutability between government consumption and private consumption.Country-by-country analysis,however,reveals diversity in the relations we studies.In the five countries such as Pakistan etc,the relation of government and private consumption is complemental,but they are found to be substitutes in Korea etc countries,so this can further provide the references for countries to choose and arrange their future fiscal policies.Meanwhile,panel cointegration techniques applied in the paper improve the analysis power of the empirical framework and the reliability of the conclusions.

政府消费与居民消费:期内替代与跨期替代

要本文以 Amano 和 Wirjanto 永久性收入模型为基础,研究1960～2003年期间中国政府消费与居民消费之间的期内替代弹性以及两者各自的跨期替代弹性,并结合新的理论发展,检验政府和居民消费之间的互补(替代或无关)关系。研究结果表明,1978年以后政府与居民消费行为发生了结构性转变:政府消费的跨期替代弹性有了明显的下降,而居民消费的跨期替代弹性及两者之间的期内替代弹性则有了显著的上升,且改革后政府和居民消费仍然保持着互补关系。本研究也指出,现阶段扩大内需的关键在于降低居民消费跨期替代弹性、促进当期消费,同时我们不能过度依赖扩张性财政政策,因为随着跨期替代弹性的下降以及期内替代弹性上升,政府与居民消费将由互补过渡为替代关系。

人民币升值背景下进口商品消费与国内商品消费关系研究

本文基于人民币升值的背景,分析了进口商品价格相对降低对国内商品消费的短期和长期影响。我们在永久收入理论的经典消费模型中引入消费者的习惯形成偏好,从而使得本文的经验分析有一个更接近实际消费者行为的理论基础。经验结果表明:(1)中国居民对国内商品消费和进口商品消费都存在习惯形成偏好。(2)进口商品消费对国内商品消费的修正期内替代弹性为0.066,而国内商品消费的修正跨期替代弹性为0.136。(3)进口商品消费与国内商品消费呈互补关系。研究表明人民币升值虽然降低了进口商品的相对价格,短期内进口商品消费挤占了国内商品消费,但跨期选择和两种商品间的互补关系将在长期内提高中国居民对国内商品的消费需求。