This paper reviews the studies and research on climate change impacts on the forest ecosystems in Northeast China. The results show that in the context of global and regional warming, the growing season of coniferous ...This paper reviews the studies and research on climate change impacts on the forest ecosystems in Northeast China. The results show that in the context of global and regional warming, the growing season of coniferous forests has been increasing at an average rate of 3.9 d per decade. Regional warming favors the growth of temperate broad-leaved forests and has a detrimental effect on the growth of boreal coniferous forests. Over the past hundred years, the forest edge of the cool temperate zone in the southern Daxing'anling region has retreated 140 km northward. From 1896 to 1986, the northern boundary of broad-leaved forests in Heilongjiang province has extended northwestward about 290 km. Future climatic changes (until 2060) may lead to the northern deciduous needle forests moving out of China's territory altogether. The occurrence cycles of pests and diseases have shortened; their distribution ranges have expanded. The life cycle of tent caterpillars (Malacosoma neustria testacea Motschulsky) has shortened from 14-15 years in the past to 8-10 years now. The pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus tabulaeformis Tsai et Liu), which has spread within western Liaoning province and the nearby areas, can now be found in the north and west. Lightning fires in the Daxing'anling region have significantly increased since 1987, and August has become the month when lightning fires occur most frequently. Overall, the net primary productivity (NPP) of forest in Northeast China has increased. The NPP in 1981 was around 0.27 Pg C, and increased to approximately 0.40 Pg C in 2002. With the current climate, the broad-leaved Korean pine forest ecosystem acts as a carbon sink, with a carbon sink capacity of 2.7 Mg C hm-2. Although the carbon sink capacity of the forest ecosystems in Northeast China has been weakened since 2003, the total carbon absorption will still increase. The forest ecosystems in Northeast China are likely to remain a significant carbon sink, and will play a positive role in the mitigation of climate change.展开更多
Mountain regions are sensitive to climate changes, which make them good indicators of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation i...Mountain regions are sensitive to climate changes, which make them good indicators of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Polish Carpathians. This study consists of climatological analyses for the historical period 1851-2010 and future projections for 2021-2100. The results confirm that there has been significant warming of the area and that this warming has been particularly pronounced over the last few decades and will continue in the oncoming years.Climate change is most evident in the foothills;however, these are the highest summits which have experienced the most intensive increases in temperature during the recent period. Precipitation does not demonstrate any substantial trend and has high year-to-year variability. The distribution of the annual temperature contour lines modelled for selected periods provides evidence of the upward shift of vertical climate zones in the Polish Carpathians,which reach approximately 350 meters, on average,what indicates further ecological consequences as ecosystems expand or become extinct and when there are changes in the hydrological cycle.展开更多
According to the authoritative data involving social economic indicators and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from the international universal database, the levels and processes of economic development and GHG emission...According to the authoritative data involving social economic indicators and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from the international universal database, the levels and processes of economic development and GHG emission in major economic groups, nations and regions of the world are simultaneously analyzed. Obtaining Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and emission per capita from various countries and regions in the past 40 years as the standard, countries and regions in the world are divided into six groups: countries with low emission per capita and low economic level (IA), countries with low emission per capita and medium economic level (IIA), countries with low emission per capita and high economic level (IIIA), countries with high emission per capita and medium economic level (liB), countries with high emission per capita and high economic level (IIIB), countries with high emission per capita and low economic level (IB). Countries belong to IB are quite rare in the study period, while the first five groups correspond to the poor regions, main developing countries, economically transitional countries with rapid economic development, rich islands and developed North America and Europe respectively. Data analysis shows that there is a close relationship between emission and economic development of different countries and regions. The composition relationship between economic development of different countries and regions is relatively stable over a long period of time. From 1970 to 2005, rising trends existed in the economic development of most countries and regions. However, the emission had a significant increase in a small part of countries and regions. In other words, for those with high emission, the emission level is always high. But for those with low GHG emission, the emission does not increase too much. The main processes of the change of countries pattern from IA to IIA and from II B to IIIB, occurring in the 1970s and from the late 1970s to the 1980s respectively. That result has .a significant enlightening effect in understanding the relationship between emission and eco- nomic development and its historical process of various countries and in choosing the position of our country in the future climate diplomatic negotiations.展开更多
While there has been significant scholarly attention to the Showtime Series Dexter (2006-13) and the fundamental choice between being good or evil that its protagonist Dexter Morgan must make, this article advances ...While there has been significant scholarly attention to the Showtime Series Dexter (2006-13) and the fundamental choice between being good or evil that its protagonist Dexter Morgan must make, this article advances scholarship in three ways. Firstly, it examines Dexter's final twist in plot and the decision Dexter makes to finally embrace his "dark passenger" to argue for the necessity of the plot twist to the series, which scholarship has not yet performed. Secondly, by situating Dexter's decision within a framework focused on reproductive futurism, a revised and more nuanced approach to Dexter's ontological dilemma can be proffered. Finally, by locating Dexter's dark passenger within the theoretical frames of reproductive futurism and community this article adds an important dimension to notions of the monster conventionally rooted in theories of identity and subjectivity. In the final moments of the series everything changes for Dexter as his identity is redeemed for a reproductive future without guarantees, which this article argues is germane to considerations ofbiopolitics and community in the contemporary period.展开更多
Global climate change effects will vary geographically, and effects on estuaries should be independently considered. This review of the impacts of climate change on the ecotoxicology of chemical contaminants aims to s...Global climate change effects will vary geographically, and effects on estuaries should be independently considered. This review of the impacts of climate change on the ecotoxicology of chemical contaminants aims to summarize responses that are specific to estuafine species. Estuarine organisms are uniquely adapted to large fluctuations in temperature, salinity, oxygen, and pH, and yet future changes in climate may make them more susceptible to chemical contaminants. Recent research has hig- hlighted the interactive effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors on chemical uptake, metabolism, and organism survival. Assessments have revealed that the nature of the interaction between climate variables and chemical pollution will depend on es- tuarine species and life stage, duration and timing of exposure, prior stressor exposure, and contaminant class. A need for further research to elucidate mechanisms of toxicity under different abiotic conditions and to incorporate climate change factors into toxicity testing was identified. These efforts will improve environmental risk assessment of chemical contaminants and manage- ment capabilities under changing climate conditions [Current Zoology 61 (4): 641-652, 2015].展开更多
Impacts of climatic change on agriculture and adaptation are of key concern of scientific research. However, vast uncertainties exist among global climates model output, emission scenarios, scale transformation and cr...Impacts of climatic change on agriculture and adaptation are of key concern of scientific research. However, vast uncertainties exist among global climates model output, emission scenarios, scale transformation and crop model parameterization. In order to reduce these uncertainties, we integrate output results of four IPCC emission scenarios of A1 FI, A2, B1 and B2, and five global climatic patterns of HadCM3, PCM, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and ECHAM4 in this study. Based on 20 databases of future climatic change scenarios from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) , the scenario data of the climatic daily median values are generated on research sites with the global mean temperature increase of 1℃(GMT+ID), 2℃(GMT+2D) and 3℃(GMT+3D). The impact of CO2 fertilization effect on wheat biomass for GMT+I D, GMT+2D and GMT+3D in China's wheat-producing areas is studied in the process model, CERES-Wheat and probabilistic forecasting method. The research results show the CO2 fertilization effect can compensate reduction of wheat biomass with warming temperature in a strong compensating effect. Under the CO2 fertilization effect, the rain-fed and irrigated wheat biomasses increase respectively, and the increment of biomass goes up with temperature rising. The rain-fed wheat biomass increase is greater than the irrigated wheat biomass. Without consideration of CO2 fertilization effect, both irrigated and rain-fed wheat biomasses reduce, and there is a higher probability for the irrigated wheat biomass than that of the rain-fed wheat biomass.展开更多
基金the Public Research Institute Fun-damental Research Foundation of the Institute of Atmospheric Environment of ChinaChina Meteororlgical Administration(No.2011IAE-CMA01)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41171199)the Special Climate Change Research Program Foundation of China Meteororlgical Administration(No.062700s010c01)for providing supports
文摘This paper reviews the studies and research on climate change impacts on the forest ecosystems in Northeast China. The results show that in the context of global and regional warming, the growing season of coniferous forests has been increasing at an average rate of 3.9 d per decade. Regional warming favors the growth of temperate broad-leaved forests and has a detrimental effect on the growth of boreal coniferous forests. Over the past hundred years, the forest edge of the cool temperate zone in the southern Daxing'anling region has retreated 140 km northward. From 1896 to 1986, the northern boundary of broad-leaved forests in Heilongjiang province has extended northwestward about 290 km. Future climatic changes (until 2060) may lead to the northern deciduous needle forests moving out of China's territory altogether. The occurrence cycles of pests and diseases have shortened; their distribution ranges have expanded. The life cycle of tent caterpillars (Malacosoma neustria testacea Motschulsky) has shortened from 14-15 years in the past to 8-10 years now. The pine caterpillar (Dendrolimus tabulaeformis Tsai et Liu), which has spread within western Liaoning province and the nearby areas, can now be found in the north and west. Lightning fires in the Daxing'anling region have significantly increased since 1987, and August has become the month when lightning fires occur most frequently. Overall, the net primary productivity (NPP) of forest in Northeast China has increased. The NPP in 1981 was around 0.27 Pg C, and increased to approximately 0.40 Pg C in 2002. With the current climate, the broad-leaved Korean pine forest ecosystem acts as a carbon sink, with a carbon sink capacity of 2.7 Mg C hm-2. Although the carbon sink capacity of the forest ecosystems in Northeast China has been weakened since 2003, the total carbon absorption will still increase. The forest ecosystems in Northeast China are likely to remain a significant carbon sink, and will play a positive role in the mitigation of climate change.
基金the FORECOM project (Forest cover changes in mountainous regions – drivers, trajectories and implications, PSRP 008/2010)supported by a grant from Switzerland through the Swiss contribution to the enlarged European Union
文摘Mountain regions are sensitive to climate changes, which make them good indicators of climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of air temperature and precipitation in the Polish Carpathians. This study consists of climatological analyses for the historical period 1851-2010 and future projections for 2021-2100. The results confirm that there has been significant warming of the area and that this warming has been particularly pronounced over the last few decades and will continue in the oncoming years.Climate change is most evident in the foothills;however, these are the highest summits which have experienced the most intensive increases in temperature during the recent period. Precipitation does not demonstrate any substantial trend and has high year-to-year variability. The distribution of the annual temperature contour lines modelled for selected periods provides evidence of the upward shift of vertical climate zones in the Polish Carpathians,which reach approximately 350 meters, on average,what indicates further ecological consequences as ecosystems expand or become extinct and when there are changes in the hydrological cycle.
文摘According to the authoritative data involving social economic indicators and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from the international universal database, the levels and processes of economic development and GHG emission in major economic groups, nations and regions of the world are simultaneously analyzed. Obtaining Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and emission per capita from various countries and regions in the past 40 years as the standard, countries and regions in the world are divided into six groups: countries with low emission per capita and low economic level (IA), countries with low emission per capita and medium economic level (IIA), countries with low emission per capita and high economic level (IIIA), countries with high emission per capita and medium economic level (liB), countries with high emission per capita and high economic level (IIIB), countries with high emission per capita and low economic level (IB). Countries belong to IB are quite rare in the study period, while the first five groups correspond to the poor regions, main developing countries, economically transitional countries with rapid economic development, rich islands and developed North America and Europe respectively. Data analysis shows that there is a close relationship between emission and economic development of different countries and regions. The composition relationship between economic development of different countries and regions is relatively stable over a long period of time. From 1970 to 2005, rising trends existed in the economic development of most countries and regions. However, the emission had a significant increase in a small part of countries and regions. In other words, for those with high emission, the emission level is always high. But for those with low GHG emission, the emission does not increase too much. The main processes of the change of countries pattern from IA to IIA and from II B to IIIB, occurring in the 1970s and from the late 1970s to the 1980s respectively. That result has .a significant enlightening effect in understanding the relationship between emission and eco- nomic development and its historical process of various countries and in choosing the position of our country in the future climate diplomatic negotiations.
文摘While there has been significant scholarly attention to the Showtime Series Dexter (2006-13) and the fundamental choice between being good or evil that its protagonist Dexter Morgan must make, this article advances scholarship in three ways. Firstly, it examines Dexter's final twist in plot and the decision Dexter makes to finally embrace his "dark passenger" to argue for the necessity of the plot twist to the series, which scholarship has not yet performed. Secondly, by situating Dexter's decision within a framework focused on reproductive futurism, a revised and more nuanced approach to Dexter's ontological dilemma can be proffered. Finally, by locating Dexter's dark passenger within the theoretical frames of reproductive futurism and community this article adds an important dimension to notions of the monster conventionally rooted in theories of identity and subjectivity. In the final moments of the series everything changes for Dexter as his identity is redeemed for a reproductive future without guarantees, which this article argues is germane to considerations ofbiopolitics and community in the contemporary period.
文摘Global climate change effects will vary geographically, and effects on estuaries should be independently considered. This review of the impacts of climate change on the ecotoxicology of chemical contaminants aims to summarize responses that are specific to estuafine species. Estuarine organisms are uniquely adapted to large fluctuations in temperature, salinity, oxygen, and pH, and yet future changes in climate may make them more susceptible to chemical contaminants. Recent research has hig- hlighted the interactive effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors on chemical uptake, metabolism, and organism survival. Assessments have revealed that the nature of the interaction between climate variables and chemical pollution will depend on es- tuarine species and life stage, duration and timing of exposure, prior stressor exposure, and contaminant class. A need for further research to elucidate mechanisms of toxicity under different abiotic conditions and to incorporate climate change factors into toxicity testing was identified. These efforts will improve environmental risk assessment of chemical contaminants and manage- ment capabilities under changing climate conditions [Current Zoology 61 (4): 641-652, 2015].
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41071030
文摘Impacts of climatic change on agriculture and adaptation are of key concern of scientific research. However, vast uncertainties exist among global climates model output, emission scenarios, scale transformation and crop model parameterization. In order to reduce these uncertainties, we integrate output results of four IPCC emission scenarios of A1 FI, A2, B1 and B2, and five global climatic patterns of HadCM3, PCM, CGCM2, CSIRO2 and ECHAM4 in this study. Based on 20 databases of future climatic change scenarios from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) , the scenario data of the climatic daily median values are generated on research sites with the global mean temperature increase of 1℃(GMT+ID), 2℃(GMT+2D) and 3℃(GMT+3D). The impact of CO2 fertilization effect on wheat biomass for GMT+I D, GMT+2D and GMT+3D in China's wheat-producing areas is studied in the process model, CERES-Wheat and probabilistic forecasting method. The research results show the CO2 fertilization effect can compensate reduction of wheat biomass with warming temperature in a strong compensating effect. Under the CO2 fertilization effect, the rain-fed and irrigated wheat biomasses increase respectively, and the increment of biomass goes up with temperature rising. The rain-fed wheat biomass increase is greater than the irrigated wheat biomass. Without consideration of CO2 fertilization effect, both irrigated and rain-fed wheat biomasses reduce, and there is a higher probability for the irrigated wheat biomass than that of the rain-fed wheat biomass.