基于1961~2018年14个气象站点实测的日照时数,利用适合四川盆地总辐射计算的经验公式估算出太阳总辐射,对其时空分布特征及其未来变化趋势进行了分析,结果表明:1) 观测期间年太阳总辐射呈极显著下降趋势,气候倾向率达到了−52.9 MJ∙m−2∙(...基于1961~2018年14个气象站点实测的日照时数,利用适合四川盆地总辐射计算的经验公式估算出太阳总辐射,对其时空分布特征及其未来变化趋势进行了分析,结果表明:1) 观测期间年太阳总辐射呈极显著下降趋势,气候倾向率达到了−52.9 MJ∙m−2∙(10a)−1,但就具体过程来看表现为上升、下降和上升三个阶段。年太阳总辐射在1976~1980年这段时间内发生了突变,存在12年的显著周期变化特征。2) 太阳总辐射在四川盆地中部地区为低值中心(大约3500 MJ∙m−2),然后由此向北和向西南均呈增加趋势。3) 年太阳总辐射未来趋势与过去趋势相反,即呈增加趋势,但未来趋势的持续性较弱,且过去状态对未来状态的影响时间仅有3年。Based on the solar radiation measured by 14 meteorological stations from 1980~2018, the total solar radiation was estimated using an empirical formula suitable for the calculation of total radiation in the Sichuan Basin, and its spat io-temporal distribution characteristics and future change trends were analyzed. The results showed that: 1) during the observation period, Annual total solar radiation showed a very significant downward trend, and the climate trend rate reached −52.9 MJ∙m−2∙(10a)−1. However, during the change of solar radiation, there were three stages: rising, falling and rising. The annual total solar radiation suddenly changed during the period from 1976 to 1980, with a significant 12-year periodic change. 2) Total solar radiation was a low value center in the central region of the Sichuan Basin (about 3500 MJ∙m−2), and then increased northward and southwestward therefrom. 3) The future trend of annual total solar radiation is opposite to the past trend, that is, it shows an increasing trend, but the sustainability of the future trend is weak, and the influence of the past state on the future state is only 3 years.展开更多
基于1980~2018年14个气象站点实测的日照时数,采用线性倾向趋势分析、Morlet小波分析和重标极差分析方法分析了四川盆地日照时数时空分布特征及其未来变化趋势,结果表明:1) 观测期间年日照时数呈增加趋势,气候倾向率达到了19.1 h/10a,...基于1980~2018年14个气象站点实测的日照时数,采用线性倾向趋势分析、Morlet小波分析和重标极差分析方法分析了四川盆地日照时数时空分布特征及其未来变化趋势,结果表明:1) 观测期间年日照时数呈增加趋势,气候倾向率达到了19.1 h/10a,且春夏冬三季呈增加趋势,秋季呈下降趋势,但这些变化均没有达到显著性水平。年日照时数具有26年(第一主周期)和8年(第二主周期)的周期变化特征。2) 年日照时数在中部及西南地区较低,由此向北和向西均逐渐增加;夏季日照时数自西南向东北日照时数值呈逐渐增加趋势,而冬季的空间分布模态与夏季基本相反。3) 年日照时数未来变化继续呈增加趋势,但这种持续性较弱。季节尺度上春夏冬三季的日照时数继续呈增加趋势,而秋季日照时数未来趋势存在很大的不确定性。Based on the sunshine hours measured by 14 meteorological stations from 1980~2018, this paper studies the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and its future trend in the Sichuan Basin by using linear trend analysis, Morlet wavelet analysis and re-scale range analysis. The results showed that: 1) during the observation period, the annual sunshine hours showed an increasing trend, and the climate trend rate reached 19.1 h/10a. In addition, there was an increasing trend in spring, summer and winter, and a decreasing trend in autumn. But none of these changes reached a significant level. Annual sunshine hours had periodic changes of 26 years (the first main cycle) and 8 years (the second main cycle). 2) The annual sunshine hours were lower in the central and southwest regions of the Sichuan Basin, and thus gradually increased north and west;the sunshine hours in summer gradually increased from southwest to northeast, and the spatial distribution mode in winter was basically opposite to that in summer. 3) Future changes in annual sunshine hours continued to show an increasing trend, but this persistence was weak. On the seasonal scale, sunshine hours in spring, summer and winter continued to increase, while there is a great deal of uncertainty about future trends in fall sunshine hours.展开更多
文摘基于1961~2018年14个气象站点实测的日照时数,利用适合四川盆地总辐射计算的经验公式估算出太阳总辐射,对其时空分布特征及其未来变化趋势进行了分析,结果表明:1) 观测期间年太阳总辐射呈极显著下降趋势,气候倾向率达到了−52.9 MJ∙m−2∙(10a)−1,但就具体过程来看表现为上升、下降和上升三个阶段。年太阳总辐射在1976~1980年这段时间内发生了突变,存在12年的显著周期变化特征。2) 太阳总辐射在四川盆地中部地区为低值中心(大约3500 MJ∙m−2),然后由此向北和向西南均呈增加趋势。3) 年太阳总辐射未来趋势与过去趋势相反,即呈增加趋势,但未来趋势的持续性较弱,且过去状态对未来状态的影响时间仅有3年。Based on the solar radiation measured by 14 meteorological stations from 1980~2018, the total solar radiation was estimated using an empirical formula suitable for the calculation of total radiation in the Sichuan Basin, and its spat io-temporal distribution characteristics and future change trends were analyzed. The results showed that: 1) during the observation period, Annual total solar radiation showed a very significant downward trend, and the climate trend rate reached −52.9 MJ∙m−2∙(10a)−1. However, during the change of solar radiation, there were three stages: rising, falling and rising. The annual total solar radiation suddenly changed during the period from 1976 to 1980, with a significant 12-year periodic change. 2) Total solar radiation was a low value center in the central region of the Sichuan Basin (about 3500 MJ∙m−2), and then increased northward and southwestward therefrom. 3) The future trend of annual total solar radiation is opposite to the past trend, that is, it shows an increasing trend, but the sustainability of the future trend is weak, and the influence of the past state on the future state is only 3 years.
文摘基于1980~2018年14个气象站点实测的日照时数,采用线性倾向趋势分析、Morlet小波分析和重标极差分析方法分析了四川盆地日照时数时空分布特征及其未来变化趋势,结果表明:1) 观测期间年日照时数呈增加趋势,气候倾向率达到了19.1 h/10a,且春夏冬三季呈增加趋势,秋季呈下降趋势,但这些变化均没有达到显著性水平。年日照时数具有26年(第一主周期)和8年(第二主周期)的周期变化特征。2) 年日照时数在中部及西南地区较低,由此向北和向西均逐渐增加;夏季日照时数自西南向东北日照时数值呈逐渐增加趋势,而冬季的空间分布模态与夏季基本相反。3) 年日照时数未来变化继续呈增加趋势,但这种持续性较弱。季节尺度上春夏冬三季的日照时数继续呈增加趋势,而秋季日照时数未来趋势存在很大的不确定性。Based on the sunshine hours measured by 14 meteorological stations from 1980~2018, this paper studies the temporal and spatial variation characteristics and its future trend in the Sichuan Basin by using linear trend analysis, Morlet wavelet analysis and re-scale range analysis. The results showed that: 1) during the observation period, the annual sunshine hours showed an increasing trend, and the climate trend rate reached 19.1 h/10a. In addition, there was an increasing trend in spring, summer and winter, and a decreasing trend in autumn. But none of these changes reached a significant level. Annual sunshine hours had periodic changes of 26 years (the first main cycle) and 8 years (the second main cycle). 2) The annual sunshine hours were lower in the central and southwest regions of the Sichuan Basin, and thus gradually increased north and west;the sunshine hours in summer gradually increased from southwest to northeast, and the spatial distribution mode in winter was basically opposite to that in summer. 3) Future changes in annual sunshine hours continued to show an increasing trend, but this persistence was weak. On the seasonal scale, sunshine hours in spring, summer and winter continued to increase, while there is a great deal of uncertainty about future trends in fall sunshine hours.
