国外公务员养老保险制度对我国机关事业单位养老保险制度改革的启示

2015年我国开始启动机关事业单位养老保险改革,而在此之前国外一些发达国家已经逐渐完善了其公务员养老保险制度。文章通过对国外公务员养老保险制度的梳理,从中寻找对我国机关事业单位养老保险改革的启示,以此促进我国机关事业单位养老保险制度的完善。

克服政治、圣人与知识-技术以成就真实的个体——《庄子·天地》第9—11节解读

在一定程度上,《庄子·天地》第9—11节的内容具有连续性。第9节是孔子与老聃的对话,孔子认为流俗的政治治理与人的本性是一致的,人的本质应该经由政治治理而生成并与之相合。但是老聃揭露了政治治理与仁义相沆瀣的本质,即它以悖逆于人之自然的东西当作人的本质,而倡言忘己而让万有入于自然。第10节是蒋闾葂与季彻的对话,前者认为政治治理者应该标举自身的德性以治理天下,而季彻则指出政治治理者的道德自高必然走向权力自高(即突出权力的至上性),从而使得治理者与被治理者都丧失自身——陷入“贼心”。由此,季彻认为,真正的自然真实之在必须克服贼心而迈入独志(自然而真实的个体)。第11节是子贡与汉阴丈人、子贡与孔子的对话,通过对子贡这个人物的知识性-技术性-功利性取向的剖破,以及孔子对于知识性认知的否定,昭示了汉阴丈人作为隐逸者生存的、不可被认知的自然真实性(浑沌之在)。

析《庄子》中人与技术的关系

文章以《庄子》的"道"(气)本体哲学观念为出发点,探讨了《庄子》所提出的"有机事"而"无机心"的可能性。文章指出,《庄子》所描述的完成"机事"的方法是以"心"合于"道"(气),而修为之"心"的本质在于"道"(气)本体的"自然"演化之途,这牵涉到"心"对"道"(气)本体的领悟层次,并由此相应地区分出众人、贤人、圣人、仙人、真人或至人,最高层次的真人能够使"机事"合于"自然"之道,从而指明了完成"有机事"而"无机心"的"人工"合于"天工"的技术途径。

Design and analysis of traffic incident detection based on random forest

In order to avoid the noise and over fitting and further improve the limited classification performance of the real decision tree, a traffic incident detection method based on the random forest algorithm is presented. From the perspective of classification strength and correlation, three experiments are performed to investigate the potential application of random forest to traffic incident detection： comparison with a different number of decision trees; comparison with different decision trees; comparison with the neural network. The real traffic data of the 1-880 database is used in the experiments. The detection performance is evaluated by the common criteria including the detection rate, the false alarm rate, the mean time to detection, the classification rate and the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic （ROC）. The experimental results indicate that the model based on random forest can improve the decision rate, reduce the testing time, and obtain a higher classification rate. Meanwhile, it is competitive compared with multi-layer feed forward neural networks （MLF）.

论网络时代侦查模式的转变

从侦查途径来看,“从事到人”曾经是一种主要的侦查模式。网络的迅猛发展,使得犯罪案件与作案人分处于虚拟与物理两大空间,计算机充当着犯罪“帮凶”的角色,因此侦查模式必然转变为“事———机———人”模式。这种新型模式不仅适用于网络犯罪的侦查,对部分传统犯罪的侦查亦具有应用价值。

Research of NS dataflow mechanism and its analyzer implementation

This paper analyzes the main elements in NS network simulator, makes adetailed view of dataflow management in a link, a node, and an agent, respectively, and introducesthe information described by its trace file. Based on the analysis of transportation and treatmentof different packets in NS, a dataflow state machine is proposed with its states exchange triggeringevents and a dataflow analyzer is designed and implemented according to it. As the machine statefunctions, the analyzer can make statistic of total transportation flux of a specified dataflow andoffer a general fluctuation diagram. Finally, a concrete example is used to test its performance.

Relationship between number of passing events and operating parameters in mixed bicycle traffic

This paper investigates the passing events between electric bicycles and conventional bicycles and explores the relationships between passing events and traffic parameters in bicycle facilities.Three exclusive bicycle paths in Nanjing, China,were observed with cameras.Then,the field data including vehicle number,velocity characteristics and passing event features were analyzed in detail.Data analysis and fitting reveal that the speed difference has little impact on the passing event number,as does the bicycle ratio.The Gaussian function can better describe the relationship between the passing event number and bicycle volume （density）.The valid use level of bicycle path width influences the inflexion of the passing events-density fitting curve.The conclusions can be applied for estimating the passing events in mixed bicycle flows and for choosing a suitable width of separate bicycle path.

The Structure and Formation Mechanism of a Sea Fog Event over the Yellow Sea

In this paper, a heavy sea fog event occurring over the Yellow Sea on 11 April 2004 was investigated based upon observational and modeling analyses. From the observational analyses, this sea fog event is a typical advection cooling case. Sea surface temperature(SST) and specific humidity(SH) show strong gradients from south to north, in which warm water is located in the south and consequently, moisture is larger in the south than in the north due to evaporation processes. After fog formation, evaporation process provides more moisture into the air and further contributes to fog evolution. The sea fog event was reproduced by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System(RAMS) reasonably. The roles of important physical processes such as radiation, turbulence as well as atmospheric stratification in sea fog's structure and its formation mechanisms were analyzed using the model results. The roles of long wave radiation cooling, turbulence as well as atmospheric stratification were analyzed based on the modeling results. It is found that the long wave radiative cooling at the fog top plays an important role in cooling down the fog layer through turbulence mixing. The fog top cooling can overpower warming from the surface. Sea fog develops upward with the aid of turbulence. The buoyancy term, i.e., the unstable layer, contributes to the generation of TKE in the fog region. However, the temperature inversion layer prevents fog from growing upward.

Research on fault diagnosis method of piston rod based on harmonic wavelet and manifold learning

As the core part of reciprocating compressor,piston rod is easy to cause a serious accident when abrasion and breakage fault occur to it. Therefore,it is very important to monitor its running state. At present,a small number of reciprocating compressors have been installed on-line monitoring and diagnosis system,most of which can only monitor a single vertical subsidence of piston rod and it can't fully represent the running state of piston rod. Therefore,a method of monitoring the vertical and horizontal displacement of piston rod axis orbit is simultaneously used. In view of the characteristics that the piston rod axis orbit is disordered and difficult to extract features,purification of the axis orbit is carried out based on harmonic wavelet and then features are extracted such as vibration energy,natural frequency and the axis orbit envelope area. After that,a nonlinear local tangent space manifold learning algorithm is used to reduce the dimension of the features and obtain sensitive features. By analyzing the practical cases,the effectiveness of the method for fault monitoring and diagnosis of reciprocating compressor piston rod assembly has been verified. Finally,as BP neural network has the characteristics of solving complex nonlinear problems,the validity of the fault diagnosis method of reciprocating compressor piston rod based on harmonic wavelet and manifold learning is proved by actual case data analysis based on BP neural network.

齿轮耦合的转子-轴承系统非线性动力特性的研究

在考虑齿轮时变啮合刚度、齿侧间隙、脱齿、挤齿及齿背接触 等因素的情况下，建立了齿轮耦合的转子—滑动轴承系统的多自由度动力学模型。用数值方 法研究了该系统的质量不平衡响应，结果发现，由于齿轮时变啮合刚度的影响，随着转速的 增加，系统动力学响应首先由周期运动向准周期运动变化，当转速超过某一值时，系统的响应将由准周期运动发展为混沌运动；由于混沌运动，转子将沿齿轮中心线方向产生很大的变 形，脱齿、齿背接触及挤齿现象也将发生，可能导致系统产生破坏。

Studies of reasonability of computing return period of storm surge based on random events set

In order to study whether the random events set can be used in Rudongbank of Nantong or not, we use ADCIRC model to stimulate the storm surge affectingRudong bank based on random events set. Then we use p-III curve to fit peak-value ofsurge of all the years to get the surge of typical return periods. The result shows that theresults of fitting by ADCIRC and by historical data coincide well in lower return periods,but to higher return periods, the results of fitting by ADCIRC are significantly higher thanthat of fitting by historical data. Due to the short time, it’s not enough for the extremestorm surge events to occur, the results of higher return periods are not reliable, so wecan’t rule out the reasonability of results based on random events set. The results offitting based on random events set are accurate in lower return periods and we can alsofully estimate the surge of higher return periods based on random events set. In thesituation of lacking historical data of hundreds of years, random events set can beaccepted as a tool to compute the return period of storm surge. Consideration of globalwarming, the possibility of super typhoons’ appearance will rise, which will result inhigher surge of return periods. In order to prevent the disaster of storm surge, thegovernment needs to deepen and reinforce the coastal engineering like seawalls and embankments.

Classification of microseismic events in high stress zone

For the purpose of having a better understanding of failure mechanisms of rock fracturing in mines, the equivalent point source models of tensile, shear and explosive seismic events were established, and the relationship between far-field seismic displacements of the waves and the corresponding equivalent forces were analyzed as well. Based on the results of a microseismic monitoring carried out in the mining progress of 9202 working face under the upper remnant coal pillar in Sanhejian Mine, the waveform features of the seismic events associated with different failure modes were further analyzed. The results show that the signals corresponding to different failure mechanisms have different radiation patterns of the seismic displacements, and different characteristics in waveform features, such as dominant frequency, energy released, the ratio of S- to P-wave energy, and so on. In addition, the rock burst happened in the high stress zone is mainly the result of the strong shear fracturing in the mining process. The results of this study have significantly improved the understanding of the characteristics of the failures associated with underground mining, and will greatly benefit the prevention and control of rock burst hazards in burst-prone mines.

Theoretical analysis of thermoviscoelastic contact between friction lining and wire rope in mine friction hoists

Serious accidents of mine hoists caused by high-speed sliding between friction lining and wire rope are often seen in coal mines.In order to solve this problem,we analyzed the contact characteristics between friction lining and wire rope.Then we carried out a dynamic mechanical analysis(DMA) to explain the change in mechanical properties of the friction lining as function of temperature and load frequency and found that temperature has a stronger effect on the mechanical properties than the frequency.We used multiple regression analysis to obtain the thermoviscoelastic constitutive relations of the friction lining.As well we derived the analytic solution for the thermoviscoelastic contact radius and pressure by combining the theory of viscoelastic contact mechanics with thermoviscoelastic constitutive relations.

Corporate Governance Mechanisms： Evidence From Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises （SMEs）

This paper aims to investigate the extent to which Malaysian small- and medium-sized enterprises （SMEs） adopted corporate governance （CG） principles and their effects on firm performance. The principles examined included： establishing clear roles and responsibilities; strengthening composition; and reinforcing independence. The paper is based on a questionnaire survey study among 113 SMEs that consisted of 35% （39） of manufacturing and related services and 65% （74） from services including information and communication technology （ICT）, primary agriculture, construction, mining, and quarrying. The analysis of the data indicates that 32% of the respondents said that the primary reason why they have their own business is to have control over their own working life. This fmding appears to confirm the f＇mancing theory that SMEs owners have other goals than profitability. In addition, 30% of SMEs perceived that the most important role played by the board is risk management; hence, these boards have a greater control over financial risks that may lead to better financial performance. The analysis also shows that 81% of the respondents＇ board consisted of internal board members only. These enterprises need to see the important role of external board members as a source of advice providers and experts to them. For policies relating to clear roles and responsibilities of board, only 28% of the respondents established clear functions reserved for the board and those delegated to management; substantial respondents did not draw up policies relating to reinforce board independency （between 75% and 79%） and to strengthen board composition （46%）. Besides, 68% of the respondents have the position of chairman and CEO held by same individuals and 81% of the chairman is an executive member of the board. These findings suggest that SMEs cannot see the importance of strengthening board and having independent board members. Regression analysis also indicates that board independence has a significant and positive impact on firm performance. Hence, SMEs need to appreciate networking advantages, competency, and strategic knowledge that the right board can offer. The governmental ministries and agencies in Malaysia need to take active measures to encourage SMEs to strengthen their board governance, because SMEs are the important economic powers for stimulating national economic growth. This paper contributes to the empirical literatures on the adoption of CG principles and their effects on SMEs＇ firm performance in emerging markets.

The Pattern of Financial Crises in Greece＇ A Historical Perspective

The main goal of this paper is to trace the long record of financial crises from the perspective of an emerging economy. Two questions are addressed. First, what explains the incidence and severity of financial crises in an emerging market economy？ And, second, what is the role of learning; how does the country learn from its past experience in financial crises to improve institutions and develop better techniques so as to successfully manage successive crisis events？ To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to provide a crisis event taxonomy looking at a systematic categorisation of the crises episodes that the country experienced over its 200-year life span, from its independence and the foundation of the Modem Greek state in 1829 to the recent 2008 crisis. To answer the above questions, I first present evidence on financial crises in Greece over a long time span of two centuries. Greece is chosen as our working template since it is a country with a rich history in financial crises. In particular, we try to identify different varieties of crises events, providing thus a crisis chronology. Moreover, we present some stylised facts on the incidence, the frequency and the severity of crises events. And second, we discuss the key determinants of the crises episodes, closely related to country specific factors, such as credit expansion, fiscal imbalances and the limited reserve coverage of the monetary base.

Research on Occurrence Mechanism of Public Security Emergency from the perspective of the Structure Box

Public security emergency is a public crisis event, and we cannot anticipate the specific time, actual scale, specific situation and influence depth of emergencies. If the emergencies are not under control, the crisis will get worse and its destructive energy will be released quickly.Structure box is an invisible closed system which is constructed by local politics, economy, and culture. Namely, structure box is local social ecological environment. Structure box is a closed area which is full of anger. Therefore, in such environment with too much pressure, we need an outlet to release pressure. Anger is the social and psychological basis of the emotional resonance of onlooker, when the fuse incident occurred, so that the widespread anger in structure box will find the spotlight. The words and actions of the leaders in the informal group will produce a great social infection and circulatory response, and groups’ stirring will cause emotional resonance which is easy to burst. Thus, irrational behavior may caused by people. This processcan use five links to describe： occurrence of fuse events, information diffusion, emotional resonance, situational catalysis, control failure, and occurrence of public security emergency. This is the occurrence mechanism of public security emergency.

Simulating Dry Deposition Fluxes of PM_(10) and Particulate Inorganic Nitrogen over the Eastern China Seas During a Severe Asian Dust Event Using WRF-Chem Model

A WRF-Chem model including a comprehensive gas-phase nitrogen chemistry module was used to simulate a severe dust event appearing in the eastern China on 19-25 March, 2002. The modeling result well reproduced PM10 concentrations in various distances from the dust sources and the transport pathway of the dust strom. The results showed that both the concentrations and the dry deposition fluxes of PM10 increased over the China seas during the dust event following the passage of a cold front system. The maximum fluxes of PM10 in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea during the dust event were 5.5 and 8.4 times of those before the event, respectively. However, the temporal variations of the dry deposition fluxes of particulate inorganic nitrogen differed over the Yellow Sea from those over the East China Sea. Nitrate and ammonium in the whole northern China rapidly decreased because of the intrusion of dust-loaded air on 19 March. The dust plume arrived in the Yellow Sea on 20 March, decreasing the particulate inorganic nitrogen in mass concentration accordingly. The minimum dry deposition fluxes of nitrate and ammonium in the Yellow Sea were about 3/5 and 1/6 of those before the dust arrival, respectively. In contrast, when the dust plume crossed over the Yangtze Delta area, it became abundant in nitrate and ammonium and increased the concentrations and dry deposition fluxes of particulate inorganic nitrogen over the East China Sea, where the maximum dry deposition fluxes of nitrate and ammonium increased approximately by 4.1 and 2.6 times of those prior to the dust arrival.

Iconography of National Mourning in Polish Press

By the law, the highest-ranking state officials announce national mouming in response to death of prominent persons. The concept of mourning should be understood both as way of showing grief in public spaces and a period of time. In turn, the concept of iconography means a collection of illustrations, paintings, prints, drawings relating to a person, place or topic. President of Poland, his wife and other 94 people died in the Smolensk plane crash on April 10, 2010, thus the images of plane crash and its outcome published in different segments of Polish press are the subject of the article. Research based on methods such as interpretation of composition and semiotics. I started my analysis with a few hypotheses： （1） The cultural background, especially religious, determines the mourning visual representation; （2） The result of certain style of visualization can be constructing of a political myth; （3） Different means can be used by mass media in adapting culture patterns process; （4） Different photographic genres can be used to illustrate the mourning; and （5） Press segments differ in way/style of mourning visualization.

Agency, Narrativity, and the Sense of an Ending

The relation between narratives and agency can be sometimes considered as mutually constitutive. There are cases in which telling a story expresses higher degrees of agency, and respectively, agency is shaped as a narrative that expresses the agent＇s reasons. From henceforth, I will contend that a narrative theory, beyond the personal identity problem, can also enlighten how the agent attains giving reasons for the action by making sense of sequences of events. In order to explain how agency is constituted from understanding and control, we must assume a primitive competence for narratives. Agency supposes an ordering that cannot be reduced to temporality, but expresses a certain sense of accomplishment that can be narratively constituted. In this context, I will examine Welleman＇s theory of emotions as an ordering framework of the events in structures of means-ends. A possible objection to his explanation of the agential narratives is that emotions themselves need to be understood as narrative processes. I suggest then that an enactivist approach would be a way of explaining the narrative constitution of agency. One virtue of this approach is that it harmonizes the biological and cultural components of the agency from the most basic layers to the ordinary folk-psychological narratives.

A Regional-Scale Method of Forecasting Debris Flow Events Based on Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism

A debris flow forecast model based on a water-soil coupling mechanism that takes the debrisflow watershed as a basic forecast unit was established here for the prediction of disasters at the watershed scale.This was achieved through advances in our understanding of the formation mechanism of debris flow.To expand the applicable spatial scale of this forecasting model,a method of identifying potential debris flow watersheds was used to locate areas vulnerable to debris flow within a forecast region.Using these watersheds as forecasting units and a prediction method based on the water-soil coupling mechanism,a new forecasting method of debris flow at the regional scale was established.In order to test the prediction ability of this new forecasting method,the Sichuan province,China was selected as a study zone and the large-scale debris flow disasters attributable to heavy rainfall in this region on July 9,2013 were taken as the study case.According to debris flow disaster data on July 9,2013 which were provided by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province,there were 252 watersheds in which debris flow events actually occurred.The current model predicted that 265 watersheds were likely to experience a debris flow event.Among these,43 towns including 204 debrisflow watersheds were successfully forecasted and 24 towns including 48 watersheds failed.The false prediction rate and failure prediction rate of thisforecast model were 23% and 19%,respectively.The results show that this method is more accurate and more applicable than traditional methods.