Objective To probe into the effects on acute gouty arthritis treated comprehensively with electroacupuncture (EA) and warming moxibustion. Methods 70 cases were randomized into treatment group (48 cases), in which the...Objective To probe into the effects on acute gouty arthritis treated comprehensively with electroacupuncture (EA) and warming moxibustion. Methods 70 cases were randomized into treatment group (48 cases), in which the EA+warming moxibustion was applied; and controlled group (22 cases), in which, colchicine was prescribed for oral administration. Results The statistical outcomes after 1 course treatment in treatment group: 28 cases were cured (58.33%), 18 cases improved (37.50%) and the total effective rate was 95.83%. In controlled group: 12 cases (54.55%) were cured, 8 cases improved (36.36%) and the total effective rate was 90.91%. The therapeutic effects of two groups were basically consistent, without significant different (P>0.05). But, concerning to side effect, there was no any toxic side effects in the group treated with EA+warming moxibustion, and the occurrence rate in the group treated with colchicine was 40.91%. Conclusion Electroacupuncture+warming moxibustion achieves good therapeutic effects without any side effects.展开更多
Knowledge of the airflow patterns and methane distributions at a continuous miner face under different ventilation conditions can minimize the risks of explosion and injury to miners by accurately forecasting potentia...Knowledge of the airflow patterns and methane distributions at a continuous miner face under different ventilation conditions can minimize the risks of explosion and injury to miners by accurately forecasting potentially hazardous face methane levels. This study focused on validating a series of computational fluid dynamics(CFD) models using full-scale ventilation gallery data that assessed how curtain setback distance impacted airflow patterns and methane distributions at an empty mining face(no continuous miner present). Three CFD models of face ventilation with 4.6, 7.6 and 10.7 m(15, 25, and 35 ft) blowing curtain setback distances were constructed and validated with experimental data collected in a full-scale ventilation test facility. Good agreement was obtained between the CFD simulation results and this data.Detailed airflow and methane distribution information are provided. Elevated methane zones at the working faces were identified with the three curtain setback distances. Visualization of the setback distance impact on the face methane distribution was performed by utilizing the post-processing capability of the CFD software.展开更多
In this paper we generalize the aggregated premium income process from a constant rate process to a poisson process for the classical compound Poinsson risk model,then for the generalized model and the classical compo...In this paper we generalize the aggregated premium income process from a constant rate process to a poisson process for the classical compound Poinsson risk model,then for the generalized model and the classical compound poisson risk model ,we respectively get its survival probability in finite time period in case of exponential claim amounts.展开更多
The siltation induced by wind waves in an entrance channel is one of the prime factors influencing the operation efficiency of a port. It is necessary to predict the siltation accurately for dredging and ship operatio...The siltation induced by wind waves in an entrance channel is one of the prime factors influencing the operation efficiency of a port. It is necessary to predict the siltation accurately for dredging and ship operation passing through the entrance of the port. However, it is difficult to apply the traditional method to predicting entrance siltation because of its complex computational procedure and lacking the data of ocean dynamic elements in the specified sea area. From the view of energy conservation, a direct relationship between wind conditions and sediment deposition can be founded. On the basis of the above methodology, an empirical formula expressed by wind conditions for forecasting the siltation in the entrance channel is set up. The wind conditions are easily obtained from the local meteorological stations or weather maps, so the formula established in this paper is more convenient and practical than the traditional method. A case study is provided, in which the emopirical formula is calibrated and verified utilizing the measured wind and siltation conditions in the entrance channel of the port. Comparisons between computed values and measured data show satisfactory aqreement.展开更多
The objective of this work is to investigate the influence of smoke movement during mine fires on miner evacuation behaviors. A three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics method was conducted to reconstruct the la...The objective of this work is to investigate the influence of smoke movement during mine fires on miner evacuation behaviors. A three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics method was conducted to reconstruct the lane- way conveyor belt fire scenes under two ventilating conditions. The parameters, including temperature-time histories, soot density, carbon monoxide and heat release rate, were simulated to characterize the mine fires at various ventilating speeds. A miner evacuation model affected by fire smoke movement was advanced to describe the miner evacuation behaviors, which can be divided into three stages. Based on the evacuation model coupled with the mine fire smoke movement, the available safety evacuation time for miners involved in coal mine fire located in different sites was estimated. Two evacuation patterns were advanced according to the ventilating speeds combined with the model of miner evacuation behaviors. The results show that the miners located between the inlet-air end and the air door in lane 1 should be evacuated to the inlet-air end and other miners involved in coal mine fire could choose the air door as the escaping destination, when the ventilation speed is greater than 3 m/s. Accordingly, the research can be used as references for the mine safety administration authorities to design the safety evacuation.展开更多
A necessary way to mitigate global warming is carbon reduction, which the international community is now actively promoting. China has committed a target goal for carbon reduction to the international society, and has...A necessary way to mitigate global warming is carbon reduction, which the international community is now actively promoting. China has committed a target goal for carbon reduction to the international society, and has devoted a great effort toward researching the impact of related policies. Carbon taxation and carbon trading are the two main mechanisms to advocate carbon abatement, which many countries have been using. Each of these two mechanisms possesses advantages and disadvantages, and an appropriate combination of them can make best use of their advantages while bypassing their disadvantages, creating a superior mechanism. In our opinion, the main differences between these two mechanisms are that carbon taxation has a lower institution cost(consisting of the related infrastructural investment and the regulation cost,etc), and is easier to operate, but lacks the flexibility in response to variations of market conditions. However, this flexibility is just the origin of risk, which increases the difficulty for firms in their decision of carbon abatement and is an indirect way to incentivize carbon abatement, compared to carbon trading, which has a more direct effect in carbon reduction. Based on the above observation, we present a hybrid mechanism of carbon abatement, which is an organized combination of carbon taxation and carbon trading. It consists of two parts: first, the carbon taxation, which has a progressive tax rate, second, the carbon trading. Small firms will only pay the carbon tax, while large firms, will first need to get the initial carbon emission quotas by some way, and then trade it in the carbon market if necessary. For firms with extra emissions,they will receive a punishment according to a high carbon tax rate. This hybrid policy considers the equity between different firms in carbon emission rights as well as the efficiency of the mechanism while decreasing the risk level for firms in the carbon emission decision, making it superior to the two previous policies. We also analyze the feasibility of this hybrid policy in China,address some important issues in the implementation of this hybrid policy in China and present the relevant suggestions. The discussion in this paper can serve as a reference to the government in the decision of carbon policies.展开更多
Current literature shows that short sellers earn positive returns on their trades and that the superior performance of short sellers is due to their better analytic skills. In this paper, we investigate, if it is poss...Current literature shows that short sellers earn positive returns on their trades and that the superior performance of short sellers is due to their better analytic skills. In this paper, we investigate, if it is possible for a short seller to make profits even if he does not have insider information or is not sophisticated. We use a one period model and assume that stock price follows a random walk with a positive drift to show that the' expected return for an uninformed short seller is always negative and his risks are always greater than the risks of a stock buyer. Hence a short seller would not trade unless he has superior trading skills and/or information. We also show that the market conditions when the stock's dividend yield is greater than the risk free rate gives the shortsellers advantage over stock buyers.展开更多
Using the Jisan Coalmine's top-coal caving for the 3down coal seam with ascending mining as the project background, the air-leakage characteristics of the goaf wasanalyzed. Through data fitting of the in situ obse...Using the Jisan Coalmine's top-coal caving for the 3down coal seam with ascending mining as the project background, the air-leakage characteristics of the goaf wasanalyzed. Through data fitting of the in situ observation, the models of gas seepage, diffusion and air-leakage in the goaf were established in ascending mining. The ComputationFluid Dynamics software Fluent was used to simulate the air-leakage law of the goaf. Theresults of the numerical simulation provide a basis for the use of the technology of ventilation and fire prevention in the working face of an ascending mining, which ensures thesafety in production in the working face of the top-coal caving for 3_down coal seam in theJisan Coalmine.展开更多
This work shows the comparison between the results of wind and temperature simulation and data weather measurements in low layers near Gualeguaychfi City, Argentine, for 12 h in January 1, 2011. The model ARPS (advan...This work shows the comparison between the results of wind and temperature simulation and data weather measurements in low layers near Gualeguaychfi City, Argentine, for 12 h in January 1, 2011. The model ARPS (advanced regional prediction system) with two options in the boundary conditions is used. In such conditions, wave-radiating open (radiative) with relaxation to the initial state were used while otherwise used absorbing boundary conditions data forced from MBLM (meso-scale boundary layer model) operational forecasters used by the National Weather Office. The results of both simulations are compared with data measured by three weather stations located around of the Uruguay River. As both simulations are initialized using the same data, there is a better agreement between the values obtained by forcing the boundary conditions for which are using "radiative" boundary conditions after 2 h physical time from the start of the simulation.展开更多
This paper proposes the control of a grid side converter under unbalance voltage conditions for wind turbine system. The control technique is designed to operate under unbalance voltage by independent control between ...This paper proposes the control of a grid side converter under unbalance voltage conditions for wind turbine system. The control technique is designed to operate under unbalance voltage by independent control between positive and negative components. The converter will regulate the DC link voltage at the specific value (650 V). To verify an operation of the proposed control, the simulation is conducted by MATLAB/SIMULINK program. The experiments are conducted on a 5 kW system composed of wind turbine simulator, machine side converter and the propose grid side converter for operation under unbalance voltage. By comparing the simulation experimentation results, it can be shown that the proposed control can be continuously operating through an extremely sag voltage without damage. Moreover the proposed control can deliver power to the grid and regulate DC link voltage under unbalance voltage.展开更多
It is important to study the methane transport phenomenon in a longwall panel under descensional ventilation conditions. In this paper the gob area is divided into a number of nodes to represent the rectangular percol...It is important to study the methane transport phenomenon in a longwall panel under descensional ventilation conditions. In this paper the gob area is divided into a number of nodes to represent the rectangular percolating elements. The connections between nodes (elements) become branches,so that a network can be formed. Using the mechanics of porous media fluid flow, the mathematical model of air and gas flows has been established. Based on the existing ground pressure theories,the porosity of the inhomogeneous porous media in the gob can be given. In computer simulation it is considered that air pressure and temperature are functions of position ; air density, viscosity, and natural ventilation pressure are functions of temperature,pressure and methane concentration,and the resistance varies with air density and viscosity. Finally,the calculation results are given to show the differences between ascensional and descensional ventilation methods.展开更多
For Super Typhoon Maria(2018),the multi-intensity change stages are identified and reproduced by numerical simulation.It is rather difficult to perform a perfect simulation for such a repeatedly reinforced typhoon dur...For Super Typhoon Maria(2018),the multi-intensity change stages are identified and reproduced by numerical simulation.It is rather difficult to perform a perfect simulation for such a repeatedly reinforced typhoon during its long life-cycle and remote path.In this study,the rapid intensification(RI)episode is focused on to investigate the convective burst(CB)characteristics and the relationship between the CBs and the RI of Maria.For Typhoon Maria,1)the spatial pattern of the inner-core CBs in distinct shear-relative quadrants,instead of the overall inner-core CBs frequently used in previous studies,presents cyclonic rotation from downshear to upshear quadrants during RI,producing a higher efficiency for tropical cyclone(TC)spinup,which accelerates the RI process.2)Dual meanings/relationships exist between CBs and RI for Maria,in contrast to the previous argument that CBs might be an indicator or a precursor to RI.The sudden growth of CBs prior to RI provides a precursor for the upcoming RI.Additionally,the appearance of the CB peak soon after RI indicates RI could lead to more intensive deep convections.The overlap of CBs with high inertial stability inside the radius of maximum wind plays a significant role in the RI of TCs.3)The synoptic attributions to CBs are also explored for the entire troposphere,fitting in the bottom-up thinking of convection growth.The CBs might be associated with high convective available potential energy in the boundary layer,a strengthening of the deep-layer secondary circulation,and an enhanced upper-level eddy momentum flux convergence.展开更多
This paper uses a Value at Risk (VaR) approach to evaluate a country financial vulnerability, by analyzing the risk exposure of its Central Bank, as if their assets are subject to market risk. The Brazilian currency...This paper uses a Value at Risk (VaR) approach to evaluate a country financial vulnerability, by analyzing the risk exposure of its Central Bank, as if their assets are subject to market risk. The Brazilian currency exchange swaps contracts (USS/Brazilian Reais) are submitted to a delta-normal VaR method, in order to evaluate the market risk of each swaps series, by modeling the variance of the daily returns, from August 1999 to January 2003. All daily returns series exhibited heteroscedasticity in the conditional variance and sudden changes in the unconditional variance. The points of changes of the unconditional variance were determined through the Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) algorithm, and the conditional variance was modeled with Markov-Switching-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (SWGARCH) in order to capture heteroscedasticity and regime change. The results lead to two main conclusions: First, a VaR model must incorporate heteroscedasticity and regime switching in order to describe the variance of the tested series, submitted to brisk changes of economic and political scenarios. Second, a volatility-based VaR do not necessarily generate forward-looking indicators, but rather coincident indicators of possible financial vulnerabilities. The future research will evolve towards evaluating the effects of the Basel III recommendations as if they could be applied to this crisis period.展开更多
The wind energy assessment studies are generally performed referring to neutral stability conditions for the atmosphere; this is considered a good hypothesis because neutral conditions characterize the high wind situa...The wind energy assessment studies are generally performed referring to neutral stability conditions for the atmosphere; this is considered a good hypothesis because neutral conditions characterize the high wind situations. However the increasing size of modem multi megawatt wind turbines allows to produce energy even in low wind regimes and non-neutral conditions can involve significant production period. In such situations the variations of the vertical wind shear can affect the energy production in a sensible way and it could be fundamental to investigate how atmospheric stability and orography can affect the wind profile and the power conversion. In this paper meso-scale numerical data, CFD modeling and remote sensed wind data were used in order to analyze such behavior and to understand how wind shear influences the energy content and the discussion about how to adjust the power curve to the site specific conditions.展开更多
文摘Objective To probe into the effects on acute gouty arthritis treated comprehensively with electroacupuncture (EA) and warming moxibustion. Methods 70 cases were randomized into treatment group (48 cases), in which the EA+warming moxibustion was applied; and controlled group (22 cases), in which, colchicine was prescribed for oral administration. Results The statistical outcomes after 1 course treatment in treatment group: 28 cases were cured (58.33%), 18 cases improved (37.50%) and the total effective rate was 95.83%. In controlled group: 12 cases (54.55%) were cured, 8 cases improved (36.36%) and the total effective rate was 90.91%. The therapeutic effects of two groups were basically consistent, without significant different (P>0.05). But, concerning to side effect, there was no any toxic side effects in the group treated with EA+warming moxibustion, and the occurrence rate in the group treated with colchicine was 40.91%. Conclusion Electroacupuncture+warming moxibustion achieves good therapeutic effects without any side effects.
文摘Knowledge of the airflow patterns and methane distributions at a continuous miner face under different ventilation conditions can minimize the risks of explosion and injury to miners by accurately forecasting potentially hazardous face methane levels. This study focused on validating a series of computational fluid dynamics(CFD) models using full-scale ventilation gallery data that assessed how curtain setback distance impacted airflow patterns and methane distributions at an empty mining face(no continuous miner present). Three CFD models of face ventilation with 4.6, 7.6 and 10.7 m(15, 25, and 35 ft) blowing curtain setback distances were constructed and validated with experimental data collected in a full-scale ventilation test facility. Good agreement was obtained between the CFD simulation results and this data.Detailed airflow and methane distribution information are provided. Elevated methane zones at the working faces were identified with the three curtain setback distances. Visualization of the setback distance impact on the face methane distribution was performed by utilizing the post-processing capability of the CFD software.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(10071019)
文摘In this paper we generalize the aggregated premium income process from a constant rate process to a poisson process for the classical compound Poinsson risk model,then for the generalized model and the classical compound poisson risk model ,we respectively get its survival probability in finite time period in case of exponential claim amounts.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50779045).
文摘The siltation induced by wind waves in an entrance channel is one of the prime factors influencing the operation efficiency of a port. It is necessary to predict the siltation accurately for dredging and ship operation passing through the entrance of the port. However, it is difficult to apply the traditional method to predicting entrance siltation because of its complex computational procedure and lacking the data of ocean dynamic elements in the specified sea area. From the view of energy conservation, a direct relationship between wind conditions and sediment deposition can be founded. On the basis of the above methodology, an empirical formula expressed by wind conditions for forecasting the siltation in the entrance channel is set up. The wind conditions are easily obtained from the local meteorological stations or weather maps, so the formula established in this paper is more convenient and practical than the traditional method. A case study is provided, in which the emopirical formula is calibrated and verified utilizing the measured wind and siltation conditions in the entrance channel of the port. Comparisons between computed values and measured data show satisfactory aqreement.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (51274205), the Doctoral Program Foundation of Ministry of Education the New Teacher Project (20070290022) and the Open Project of China University of Mining and Technology Resources and Mine Safety State Key Laboratory (S KLCRSM 10KFB 13).
文摘The objective of this work is to investigate the influence of smoke movement during mine fires on miner evacuation behaviors. A three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics method was conducted to reconstruct the lane- way conveyor belt fire scenes under two ventilating conditions. The parameters, including temperature-time histories, soot density, carbon monoxide and heat release rate, were simulated to characterize the mine fires at various ventilating speeds. A miner evacuation model affected by fire smoke movement was advanced to describe the miner evacuation behaviors, which can be divided into three stages. Based on the evacuation model coupled with the mine fire smoke movement, the available safety evacuation time for miners involved in coal mine fire located in different sites was estimated. Two evacuation patterns were advanced according to the ventilating speeds combined with the model of miner evacuation behaviors. The results show that the miners located between the inlet-air end and the air door in lane 1 should be evacuated to the inlet-air end and other miners involved in coal mine fire could choose the air door as the escaping destination, when the ventilation speed is greater than 3 m/s. Accordingly, the research can be used as references for the mine safety administration authorities to design the safety evacuation.
文摘A necessary way to mitigate global warming is carbon reduction, which the international community is now actively promoting. China has committed a target goal for carbon reduction to the international society, and has devoted a great effort toward researching the impact of related policies. Carbon taxation and carbon trading are the two main mechanisms to advocate carbon abatement, which many countries have been using. Each of these two mechanisms possesses advantages and disadvantages, and an appropriate combination of them can make best use of their advantages while bypassing their disadvantages, creating a superior mechanism. In our opinion, the main differences between these two mechanisms are that carbon taxation has a lower institution cost(consisting of the related infrastructural investment and the regulation cost,etc), and is easier to operate, but lacks the flexibility in response to variations of market conditions. However, this flexibility is just the origin of risk, which increases the difficulty for firms in their decision of carbon abatement and is an indirect way to incentivize carbon abatement, compared to carbon trading, which has a more direct effect in carbon reduction. Based on the above observation, we present a hybrid mechanism of carbon abatement, which is an organized combination of carbon taxation and carbon trading. It consists of two parts: first, the carbon taxation, which has a progressive tax rate, second, the carbon trading. Small firms will only pay the carbon tax, while large firms, will first need to get the initial carbon emission quotas by some way, and then trade it in the carbon market if necessary. For firms with extra emissions,they will receive a punishment according to a high carbon tax rate. This hybrid policy considers the equity between different firms in carbon emission rights as well as the efficiency of the mechanism while decreasing the risk level for firms in the carbon emission decision, making it superior to the two previous policies. We also analyze the feasibility of this hybrid policy in China,address some important issues in the implementation of this hybrid policy in China and present the relevant suggestions. The discussion in this paper can serve as a reference to the government in the decision of carbon policies.
文摘Current literature shows that short sellers earn positive returns on their trades and that the superior performance of short sellers is due to their better analytic skills. In this paper, we investigate, if it is possible for a short seller to make profits even if he does not have insider information or is not sophisticated. We use a one period model and assume that stock price follows a random walk with a positive drift to show that the' expected return for an uninformed short seller is always negative and his risks are always greater than the risks of a stock buyer. Hence a short seller would not trade unless he has superior trading skills and/or information. We also show that the market conditions when the stock's dividend yield is greater than the risk free rate gives the shortsellers advantage over stock buyers.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(50704025)the National Science Fundation of Education Department in Shaanxi Province(07JK318)the Planning Project of Excellent Talented Person of New Century Supported by Ministry of Education of China (NECT050874)
文摘Using the Jisan Coalmine's top-coal caving for the 3down coal seam with ascending mining as the project background, the air-leakage characteristics of the goaf wasanalyzed. Through data fitting of the in situ observation, the models of gas seepage, diffusion and air-leakage in the goaf were established in ascending mining. The ComputationFluid Dynamics software Fluent was used to simulate the air-leakage law of the goaf. Theresults of the numerical simulation provide a basis for the use of the technology of ventilation and fire prevention in the working face of an ascending mining, which ensures thesafety in production in the working face of the top-coal caving for 3_down coal seam in theJisan Coalmine.
文摘This work shows the comparison between the results of wind and temperature simulation and data weather measurements in low layers near Gualeguaychfi City, Argentine, for 12 h in January 1, 2011. The model ARPS (advanced regional prediction system) with two options in the boundary conditions is used. In such conditions, wave-radiating open (radiative) with relaxation to the initial state were used while otherwise used absorbing boundary conditions data forced from MBLM (meso-scale boundary layer model) operational forecasters used by the National Weather Office. The results of both simulations are compared with data measured by three weather stations located around of the Uruguay River. As both simulations are initialized using the same data, there is a better agreement between the values obtained by forcing the boundary conditions for which are using "radiative" boundary conditions after 2 h physical time from the start of the simulation.
文摘This paper proposes the control of a grid side converter under unbalance voltage conditions for wind turbine system. The control technique is designed to operate under unbalance voltage by independent control between positive and negative components. The converter will regulate the DC link voltage at the specific value (650 V). To verify an operation of the proposed control, the simulation is conducted by MATLAB/SIMULINK program. The experiments are conducted on a 5 kW system composed of wind turbine simulator, machine side converter and the propose grid side converter for operation under unbalance voltage. By comparing the simulation experimentation results, it can be shown that the proposed control can be continuously operating through an extremely sag voltage without damage. Moreover the proposed control can deliver power to the grid and regulate DC link voltage under unbalance voltage.
文摘It is important to study the methane transport phenomenon in a longwall panel under descensional ventilation conditions. In this paper the gob area is divided into a number of nodes to represent the rectangular percolating elements. The connections between nodes (elements) become branches,so that a network can be formed. Using the mechanics of porous media fluid flow, the mathematical model of air and gas flows has been established. Based on the existing ground pressure theories,the porosity of the inhomogeneous porous media in the gob can be given. In computer simulation it is considered that air pressure and temperature are functions of position ; air density, viscosity, and natural ventilation pressure are functions of temperature,pressure and methane concentration,and the resistance varies with air density and viscosity. Finally,the calculation results are given to show the differences between ascensional and descensional ventilation methods.
基金The authors are supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 41575064,41875079,and 41775079]the Open Research Program of the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences[grant number 2019LASW-A04].
文摘For Super Typhoon Maria(2018),the multi-intensity change stages are identified and reproduced by numerical simulation.It is rather difficult to perform a perfect simulation for such a repeatedly reinforced typhoon during its long life-cycle and remote path.In this study,the rapid intensification(RI)episode is focused on to investigate the convective burst(CB)characteristics and the relationship between the CBs and the RI of Maria.For Typhoon Maria,1)the spatial pattern of the inner-core CBs in distinct shear-relative quadrants,instead of the overall inner-core CBs frequently used in previous studies,presents cyclonic rotation from downshear to upshear quadrants during RI,producing a higher efficiency for tropical cyclone(TC)spinup,which accelerates the RI process.2)Dual meanings/relationships exist between CBs and RI for Maria,in contrast to the previous argument that CBs might be an indicator or a precursor to RI.The sudden growth of CBs prior to RI provides a precursor for the upcoming RI.Additionally,the appearance of the CB peak soon after RI indicates RI could lead to more intensive deep convections.The overlap of CBs with high inertial stability inside the radius of maximum wind plays a significant role in the RI of TCs.3)The synoptic attributions to CBs are also explored for the entire troposphere,fitting in the bottom-up thinking of convection growth.The CBs might be associated with high convective available potential energy in the boundary layer,a strengthening of the deep-layer secondary circulation,and an enhanced upper-level eddy momentum flux convergence.
文摘This paper uses a Value at Risk (VaR) approach to evaluate a country financial vulnerability, by analyzing the risk exposure of its Central Bank, as if their assets are subject to market risk. The Brazilian currency exchange swaps contracts (USS/Brazilian Reais) are submitted to a delta-normal VaR method, in order to evaluate the market risk of each swaps series, by modeling the variance of the daily returns, from August 1999 to January 2003. All daily returns series exhibited heteroscedasticity in the conditional variance and sudden changes in the unconditional variance. The points of changes of the unconditional variance were determined through the Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares (ICSS) algorithm, and the conditional variance was modeled with Markov-Switching-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (SWGARCH) in order to capture heteroscedasticity and regime change. The results lead to two main conclusions: First, a VaR model must incorporate heteroscedasticity and regime switching in order to describe the variance of the tested series, submitted to brisk changes of economic and political scenarios. Second, a volatility-based VaR do not necessarily generate forward-looking indicators, but rather coincident indicators of possible financial vulnerabilities. The future research will evolve towards evaluating the effects of the Basel III recommendations as if they could be applied to this crisis period.
文摘The wind energy assessment studies are generally performed referring to neutral stability conditions for the atmosphere; this is considered a good hypothesis because neutral conditions characterize the high wind situations. However the increasing size of modem multi megawatt wind turbines allows to produce energy even in low wind regimes and non-neutral conditions can involve significant production period. In such situations the variations of the vertical wind shear can affect the energy production in a sensible way and it could be fundamental to investigate how atmospheric stability and orography can affect the wind profile and the power conversion. In this paper meso-scale numerical data, CFD modeling and remote sensed wind data were used in order to analyze such behavior and to understand how wind shear influences the energy content and the discussion about how to adjust the power curve to the site specific conditions.