For unacceptable computational efficiency and accuracy on the probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes,this paper proposed multi-extremum response surface method(MERSM).MERSM model was...For unacceptable computational efficiency and accuracy on the probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes,this paper proposed multi-extremum response surface method(MERSM).MERSM model was established based on quadratic polynomial function by taking extremum response surface model as the sub-model of multi-response surface method.The dynamic probabilistic analysis of an aeroengine turbine blisk with two components,and their reliability of deformation and stress failures was obtained,based on thermal-structural coupling technique,by considering the nonlinearity of material parameters and the transients of gas flow,gas temperature and rotational speed.The results show that the comprehensive reliability of structure is 0.9904 when the allowable deformations and stresses of blade and disk are 4.78×10–3 m and 1.41×109 Pa,and 1.64×10–3 m and 1.04×109 Pa,respectively.Besides,gas temperature and rotating speed severely influence the comprehensive reliability of system.Through the comparison of methods,it is shown that the MERSM holds higher computational precision and speed in the probabilistic analysis of turbine blisk,and MERSM computational precision satisfies the requirement of engineering design.The efforts of this study address the difficulties on transients and multiple models coupling for the dynamic probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes.展开更多
Longhole caving method was used to mine gently inclined thick orebody step by step in a test stope of tin mine under complex filling body. The problem that the complex filling body around the stope affects the stabili...Longhole caving method was used to mine gently inclined thick orebody step by step in a test stope of tin mine under complex filling body. The problem that the complex filling body around the stope affects the stability of roof thickness, chamber and spacer pillar in actual mining was investigated; meanwhile, the formed goaf during mining is so vulnerable that surrounding rock collapses early. Based on this point, elasticity mechanics and limit span theory were used to study separately the roof thickness and the span limit of goaf formed in mining, and then a reasonable roof thickness of 8 m and goaf span of 14 m are proposed. In addition, the stability of roof thickness, chamber and spacer pillar were investigated and analyzed by using numerical analysis method; meanwhile, the field monitoring on the displacement of caving chamber was conducted. The results show that the maximum compressive stress of surrounding rock is 20 MPa, and the maximum tensile stress is 1.2 MPa, which is less than the ultimate tensile strength of 2.4 MPa. Moreover, plastic zone has little influence on stope stability. In addition, the displacement of 11 mm is also smaller. The displacement monitoring results are consistent with the numerical results. Thus, the roof thickness and span of goaf proposed are safe.展开更多
The article deals with the methodology of pseudorandom data analysis. As a mathematical tool for carrying out the research the extreme value theory was used that creates one of the directions in mathematical statistic...The article deals with the methodology of pseudorandom data analysis. As a mathematical tool for carrying out the research the extreme value theory was used that creates one of the directions in mathematical statistics, and is related to investigating the extreme deviations from the median values in probability distributions. Also, the methods for estimating unknown parameters and algorithm of random-number generation are discussed. The models of treatment the extreme values are constructed which are based on machine generated sample and approach is proposed for their future application for constructing forecasting models.展开更多
基金Projects (51275138,51605016) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject (12531109) supported by the Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Provincial Department of Education,ChinaProject supported by Research Start-up Funding of Fudan University,China
文摘For unacceptable computational efficiency and accuracy on the probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes,this paper proposed multi-extremum response surface method(MERSM).MERSM model was established based on quadratic polynomial function by taking extremum response surface model as the sub-model of multi-response surface method.The dynamic probabilistic analysis of an aeroengine turbine blisk with two components,and their reliability of deformation and stress failures was obtained,based on thermal-structural coupling technique,by considering the nonlinearity of material parameters and the transients of gas flow,gas temperature and rotational speed.The results show that the comprehensive reliability of structure is 0.9904 when the allowable deformations and stresses of blade and disk are 4.78×10–3 m and 1.41×109 Pa,and 1.64×10–3 m and 1.04×109 Pa,respectively.Besides,gas temperature and rotating speed severely influence the comprehensive reliability of system.Through the comparison of methods,it is shown that the MERSM holds higher computational precision and speed in the probabilistic analysis of turbine blisk,and MERSM computational precision satisfies the requirement of engineering design.The efforts of this study address the difficulties on transients and multiple models coupling for the dynamic probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes.
基金Project(2012BAK09B02-05)supported by the National Science and Technology Pillar Program during the 12th Five-Year Plan PeriodProject(11KF02)supported by the Research Fund of the State Key Laboratory of Coal Resources and Mine Safety
文摘Longhole caving method was used to mine gently inclined thick orebody step by step in a test stope of tin mine under complex filling body. The problem that the complex filling body around the stope affects the stability of roof thickness, chamber and spacer pillar in actual mining was investigated; meanwhile, the formed goaf during mining is so vulnerable that surrounding rock collapses early. Based on this point, elasticity mechanics and limit span theory were used to study separately the roof thickness and the span limit of goaf formed in mining, and then a reasonable roof thickness of 8 m and goaf span of 14 m are proposed. In addition, the stability of roof thickness, chamber and spacer pillar were investigated and analyzed by using numerical analysis method; meanwhile, the field monitoring on the displacement of caving chamber was conducted. The results show that the maximum compressive stress of surrounding rock is 20 MPa, and the maximum tensile stress is 1.2 MPa, which is less than the ultimate tensile strength of 2.4 MPa. Moreover, plastic zone has little influence on stope stability. In addition, the displacement of 11 mm is also smaller. The displacement monitoring results are consistent with the numerical results. Thus, the roof thickness and span of goaf proposed are safe.
文摘The article deals with the methodology of pseudorandom data analysis. As a mathematical tool for carrying out the research the extreme value theory was used that creates one of the directions in mathematical statistics, and is related to investigating the extreme deviations from the median values in probability distributions. Also, the methods for estimating unknown parameters and algorithm of random-number generation are discussed. The models of treatment the extreme values are constructed which are based on machine generated sample and approach is proposed for their future application for constructing forecasting models.
