The transverse spin-2 Ising ferromagnetic model with a longitudinal crystal-field is studied within the mean-field theory based on Bogoliubov inequality for the Gibbs free energy. The ground-state phase diagram and th...The transverse spin-2 Ising ferromagnetic model with a longitudinal crystal-field is studied within the mean-field theory based on Bogoliubov inequality for the Gibbs free energy. The ground-state phase diagram and the tricritical point are obtained in the transverse field Ω/ zJ-longitudinal crystal D / zJ field plane. We find that there are the first order-order phase transitions in a very small range of D /zJ besides the usual first order-disorder phase transitions and the second order-disorder phase transitions,展开更多
Based on four sets of numerical simulations prescribed with atmospheric radiative forcing and sea surface temperature(SST) forcing in the Community Atmospheric Model version 3(CAM3), the interannual and interdecadal v...Based on four sets of numerical simulations prescribed with atmospheric radiative forcing and sea surface temperature(SST) forcing in the Community Atmospheric Model version 3(CAM3), the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the Antarctic oscillation(AAO) during austral summer were studied. It was found that the interannual variability is mainly driven by SST forcing. On the other hand, atmospheric radiative forcing plays a major role in the interdecadal variability. A cooling trend was found in the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere(SH) when atmospheric radiative forcing was specified in the model. This cooling trend tended to enhance the temperature gradient between the mid and high latitudes in the SH, inducing a transition of the AAO from a negative to a positive phase on the interdecadal timescale. The cooling trend was also partly weakened by the SST forcing, leading to a better simulation compared with the purely atmospheric radiative forcing run. Therefore, SST forcing cannot be ignored, although it is not as important as atmospheric radiative forcing.展开更多
The air temperature of Wuli,which is located in seasonal frozen ground zone,is rising by 13 ℃ yearly.This paper discusses the days that each ground layers' temperature lags behind the surface temperature in reach...The air temperature of Wuli,which is located in seasonal frozen ground zone,is rising by 13 ℃ yearly.This paper discusses the days that each ground layers' temperature lags behind the surface temperature in reaching extremum.The results were shown:The time of each ground layers' lagging days was increasing;the lagging day in warm season was longer than that in cold season;the growth rate of lagging days in warm season was 0.5 d/y,while the growth rate of lagging days in cold season was 0.7 d/y.展开更多
An increase in the extremality of natural processes is a consequence of warming, aridization, and desertification. The authors consider the processes of warming, aridization, and desertification to be the parts of a s...An increase in the extremality of natural processes is a consequence of warming, aridization, and desertification. The authors consider the processes of warming, aridization, and desertification to be the parts of a single system and major destabilizing factors of ecological balance. Destabilization is expressed in the growth of natural processes extremality. Ecosystems of Transbaikalia were once characterized by a different natural contrast and amplitude. Warming, aridization and desertification have led to an increase of environmental regimes tensions. This is demonstrated quantitatively by the root-mean-square difference of atmospheric and soil parameters. Quantitative indicators of aridization are estimated using Walter-Gossen climate charts. Permafrost zone response information to the long-term warming is provided as well.展开更多
In this paper we consider the large deviations for random sums $S(t) = \sum _{i = t}^{N(t)} X_i ,t \geqslant 0$ , whereX n,n?1 are independent, identically distributed and non-negative random variables with a common h...In this paper we consider the large deviations for random sums $S(t) = \sum _{i = t}^{N(t)} X_i ,t \geqslant 0$ , whereX n,n?1 are independent, identically distributed and non-negative random variables with a common heavy-tailed distribution function F, andN(t), t?0 is a process of non-negative integer-valued random variables, independent ofX n,n?1. Under the assumption that the tail of F is of Pareto’s type (regularly or extended regularly varying), we investigate what reasonable condition can be given onN(t), t?0 under which precise large deviation for S( t) holds. In particular, the condition we obtain is satisfied for renewal counting processes.展开更多
We have applied a full hierarchical Baysian （HB） model to simulate streamffow at the Coweeta Basin that drains western North Carolina, USA under a doubled CO2 climate scenario. The full HB model coherently assimilat...We have applied a full hierarchical Baysian （HB） model to simulate streamffow at the Coweeta Basin that drains western North Carolina, USA under a doubled CO2 climate scenario. The full HB model coherently assimilated multiple data sources and accounted for uncertainties from data, parameters and model structures. Full predictive distributions for streamflow from the Bayesian analysis indicate not only increasing drought, with substantial decrease in fall and summer flows, and soil moisture content, but also increase in the frequency of flood events when they were fit with Generalized Extreme Value （GEV） distribution and Generalized Pareto Distribution （GPD） under this doubled CO2 climate scenario compared to the current climate scenario. Full predictive distributions based on the hierarchical Bayesian model, compared to deterministic point estimates, is capable of providing richer information to facilitate development of adaptation strategy to changing climate for a sustainable water resource management.展开更多
文摘The transverse spin-2 Ising ferromagnetic model with a longitudinal crystal-field is studied within the mean-field theory based on Bogoliubov inequality for the Gibbs free energy. The ground-state phase diagram and the tricritical point are obtained in the transverse field Ω/ zJ-longitudinal crystal D / zJ field plane. We find that there are the first order-order phase transitions in a very small range of D /zJ besides the usual first order-disorder phase transitions and the second order-disorder phase transitions,
基金supported by the Carbon Budget and Related Issues of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA05110201)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2010CB951901)
文摘Based on four sets of numerical simulations prescribed with atmospheric radiative forcing and sea surface temperature(SST) forcing in the Community Atmospheric Model version 3(CAM3), the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the Antarctic oscillation(AAO) during austral summer were studied. It was found that the interannual variability is mainly driven by SST forcing. On the other hand, atmospheric radiative forcing plays a major role in the interdecadal variability. A cooling trend was found in the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere(SH) when atmospheric radiative forcing was specified in the model. This cooling trend tended to enhance the temperature gradient between the mid and high latitudes in the SH, inducing a transition of the AAO from a negative to a positive phase on the interdecadal timescale. The cooling trend was also partly weakened by the SST forcing, leading to a better simulation compared with the purely atmospheric radiative forcing run. Therefore, SST forcing cannot be ignored, although it is not as important as atmospheric radiative forcing.
基金Supported by Pasture Industrialization Technology Research Integration and Application in Mountainous Areas of Guizhou([2014]6017)Phosphate Solubilizing Bacteria Bank Establishment and Phosphate Solubilization Mechanism of Pasture Rhizosphere in Mountainous Areas of Guizhou([2013]2152)
文摘The air temperature of Wuli,which is located in seasonal frozen ground zone,is rising by 13 ℃ yearly.This paper discusses the days that each ground layers' temperature lags behind the surface temperature in reaching extremum.The results were shown:The time of each ground layers' lagging days was increasing;the lagging day in warm season was longer than that in cold season;the growth rate of lagging days in warm season was 0.5 d/y,while the growth rate of lagging days in cold season was 0.7 d/y.
基金partially supported by the Russian Geographical Society(grant No.13-05-41378)
文摘An increase in the extremality of natural processes is a consequence of warming, aridization, and desertification. The authors consider the processes of warming, aridization, and desertification to be the parts of a single system and major destabilizing factors of ecological balance. Destabilization is expressed in the growth of natural processes extremality. Ecosystems of Transbaikalia were once characterized by a different natural contrast and amplitude. Warming, aridization and desertification have led to an increase of environmental regimes tensions. This is demonstrated quantitatively by the root-mean-square difference of atmospheric and soil parameters. Quantitative indicators of aridization are estimated using Walter-Gossen climate charts. Permafrost zone response information to the long-term warming is provided as well.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 10071081) .
文摘In this paper we consider the large deviations for random sums $S(t) = \sum _{i = t}^{N(t)} X_i ,t \geqslant 0$ , whereX n,n?1 are independent, identically distributed and non-negative random variables with a common heavy-tailed distribution function F, andN(t), t?0 is a process of non-negative integer-valued random variables, independent ofX n,n?1. Under the assumption that the tail of F is of Pareto’s type (regularly or extended regularly varying), we investigate what reasonable condition can be given onN(t), t?0 under which precise large deviation for S( t) holds. In particular, the condition we obtain is satisfied for renewal counting processes.
基金grants from the National Science Foundation (NSF) through Coweeta Long Term Ecological Research (LTER)
文摘We have applied a full hierarchical Baysian （HB） model to simulate streamffow at the Coweeta Basin that drains western North Carolina, USA under a doubled CO2 climate scenario. The full HB model coherently assimilated multiple data sources and accounted for uncertainties from data, parameters and model structures. Full predictive distributions for streamflow from the Bayesian analysis indicate not only increasing drought, with substantial decrease in fall and summer flows, and soil moisture content, but also increase in the frequency of flood events when they were fit with Generalized Extreme Value （GEV） distribution and Generalized Pareto Distribution （GPD） under this doubled CO2 climate scenario compared to the current climate scenario. Full predictive distributions based on the hierarchical Bayesian model, compared to deterministic point estimates, is capable of providing richer information to facilitate development of adaptation strategy to changing climate for a sustainable water resource management.
