长江流域不同气候分区生长季植被总初级生产力对极端气候变化的时空响应研究

本文将长江流域分为五大气候区,并采用改进的MOD17A2H算法对长江流域不同生态分区1982~2016年生长季植被总初级生产力(下简称“GPP”)数据集进行了重构,同时利用长江流域146个气象站点的极端气候数据进行了时空响应分析。得出1982~2016年长江流域不同气候分区1982~2016年生长季GPP对极端气候指标的时空响应特征。

非农就业、极端气候变化感知对小农户绿肥施用意愿的影响——基于冀、鲁、豫、皖四省小麦主产区的调查

绿肥可以降低农业面源污染、改善土壤肥力、提高单产水平,是保障粮食安全的关键,对推动我国粮食发展有重要作用,然而农户对绿肥的施用意愿并未得到广泛关注。基于要素诱致性技术创新理论,从非农就业与极端气候变化感知的视角,分析农户对绿肥的施用意愿。根据分层抽样法获取冀、鲁、豫、皖四省的调研数据,运用描述性统计与二项Logit模型得出以下结论:(1)非农就业对农户施用绿肥有消极影响,且非农就业程度越高对施用绿肥的意愿越低;(2)极端气候变化感知对农户施用绿肥有积极影响,与一般农户相比,感受到极端气候变化的农户更愿意施用绿肥来弥补水土流失等造成的粮食产量下降等问题。研究可以为制定绿肥激励政策提供相关参考。

加拿大档案机构应对极端气候变化的实践及启示

近些年来世界各地频频发生的极端气候变化给全球档案管理、保护等带来了极大的风险和威胁。文章介绍极端气候变化给加拿大档案保存环境、基础设施带来的威胁,对加拿大档案机构采取制定气候适应策略、提高档案库房弹性能力、制定灾害规划等措施深入分析,总结其有益经验和做法,并据此探讨完善我国档案机构应对极端气候变化威胁的建议和对策,即统筹开展极端气候适应工作指导、建立跨部门跨行业协作网络、制定可持续更新的灾害规划等,以期对提高我国档案机构应对极端气候变化的能力和水平等有所借鉴或启发。

全球碳中和背景下中国气候与极端气候变化

利用第6次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)26个模式的3种共享社会经济路径(SSP)结果,选取了SSP1-2.6情景下全球大气CO_(2)浓度达峰时间以确定全球碳中和时间,预估了未来全球碳中和时期相比于历史参考时期(1995-2014年)的中国气候与极端气候的响应变化,并与未实现碳中和的情景结果进行比较。结果表明,SSP1-2.6情景下全球达到碳中和时间为2062年左右(与中国的碳中和实现目标时间接近),相较于历史参考时期,SSP1-2.6碳中和时期中国区域平均升温(1.61±0.46)℃,降水增加(9.15±5.46)%,最大升温和增湿区域位于中国西北,增暖和增湿幅度分别达到(1.84±0.50)℃和(10.05±8.61)%;中国平均白天最高气温和夜间最低气温分别增加(1.78±0.76)℃和(1.83±0.69)℃,白天极端高温在青藏高原存在最大增幅(17.05±5.16)%,夜间极端低温在中国南方下降最为明显(-6.08±0.73)%;极端降水事件整体呈增加趋势,极端强降水在青藏高原最大增幅超过20%,最大连续干旱日数在中国北方减少而在南方增加。相比于未碳中和情景SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5,碳中和目标的实现可减缓未来中国的气候变化,极大防控中国大部分区域极端暖事件和极端湿事件的加剧,以及未来中国南方连续干旱日数的增加。因此,为缓解未来中国区域气候变化的加剧,需要合理控制CO_(2)排放以实现“双碳”目标。

城市建设对极端气候及农业气象灾害指标的影响

农业气象灾害指标是农业气象服务的基础,受城市变化的影响,河套地区原有的农业气象指标已经不能很好地为农业生产服务。本项研究的开展旨在为河套地区新品种的引进、高新农业的发展提供更可靠的气象指标。文章选取临河城市气象站和直线距离22 km的陕坝郊区气象站进行分析对比,研究城市气候与极端气候变化。临河站日最高气温≥35.0℃日数最多的年代为20世纪90年代,其次为21世纪10年代。临河站年极端最高气温均值最高的年代为20世纪90年代,为37.0℃;其次为21世纪10年代,为36.8℃;临河站年极端最低气温均值最高为20世纪90年代,为-20.9℃;以不受城市气候影响的30年均值为标准,临河站年日照时数20世纪80、90年代和21世纪10年代分别减少了3.5%、5.6%和5.2%。陕坝站、临河站年大风日数最高值均为20世纪70年代,分别为30.4 d和8.5 d。临河站大风日数第二高值年代为21世纪20年代,为4.3 d;陕坝站则呈逐渐下降趋势。临河站初霜冻峰值出现在2006—2009年,此时处于迁站前期,谷值出现在1994—1997年。由此可见,城市气候对霜冻的影响是十分明显的;临河站≥0℃、≥10℃积温最高的年代为21世纪10年代,两站最低出现在20世纪70年代。1971—1990年,是城市气候影响较小时期,20世纪90年代是影响较大时期,21世纪20年代为恢复期。

唐代陕南地区洪涝灾害与干湿变化研究

从历史文献中提取了唐代289 a间(公元618—907年)陕南地区的水旱灾害记录,使用灾害等级法和湿润指数法研究其洪涝灾害特征和干湿变化特点。结果表明:在时间上,洪涝灾害的发生可分为三个阶段,公元618—687年为少发期,688—847年为多发期,848—907年为少发期,在公元788—797年、808—817年发生了2次湿润气候事件;干湿变化具有明显的突变性和周期性,在公元748年前后发生由湿润向干旱的突变,指示气候发生了突变;湿润指数变化存在25~27 a、62~67 a的周期振荡,其中62~67 a为主变化周期。在空间上,商洛、汉中地区洪涝灾害次数较多,占水灾总次数的74.5%;唐代陕南地区洪涝灾害与干湿变化过程与同时期中国气候总体变化大致相同,其变化是对北半球气候变化的响应。

气候变化、收入流动与农户内部收入不平等

基于气候变化农户决策适应理论和收入相对剥夺理论,本文利用中国家庭追踪调查2014—2018年数据,运用面板Tobit模型、面板Ordered-logit模型等方法实证检验了气候变化、收入流动对农户内部收入不平等的影响效应及传导机制。研究发现,一般气候变化显著抑制了农户内部收入不平等状况,而极端气候变化则拉大了农户内部收入不平等状况;农户收入向上流动会显著减缓农户内部收入不平等状况,而农户收入向下流动则显著拉大农户内部收入不平等状况。从两者交互效应来看,一般气候变化能够强化收入向上流动对农户内部收入不平等的减缓效应,主要源自于一般气候变化能够减缓收入向上流动农户的工资性收入不平等,而极端气候变化则弱化了收入向上流动对农户内部收入不平等的减缓效应。从收入结构不平等的作用逻辑来看,一般气候变化对农户内部收入不平等的抑制效应主要来源于农户普遍性非农就业减轻了贫困户的低收入“锁定”效应,从而缓解工资性收入不平等状况。而极端气候变化对农户内部收入不平等的拉大效应主要源自于极端气候变化造成了转移性收入差距的拉大。

《中国千年区域极端旱涝地图集》评介

近百年来,东亚季风区极端旱涝事件的发生频率、强度呈现出新的特征。然而,现有仪器观测数据序列太短,无法满足多年代到百年尺度降水或旱涝变化/变率研究的需求。因此,利用历史文献记载、树轮、石笋、冰芯等代用资料重建过去数百年到上千年气候和极端气候变化序列,具有重要科学意义。2024年4月,中国地图出版社出版复旦大学杨煜达教授主编的《中国千年区域极端旱涝地图集》(以下简称《图集》),标志着中国历史气候变化研究领域又取得一项突破性进展。

新疆阿勒泰地区近50年来极端气温与降水变化

利用新疆阿勒泰地区六个气象代表站点1961～2008年的观测资料,研究了近50年来阿勒泰地区的极端气温与极端降水量的变化。结果表明:阿勒泰地区近50年以来极端最高与最低气温、月与年最大日降水量、年降水强度、冬与夏季降水强度及大雨和暴雨和热月都呈上升的趋势,冷月呈下降的趋势。其中平均极端最低气温60年代最低,80年代开始上升,近10年(1999～2008年)较60年代上升了3.34℃。大雨和暴雨月集中出现在最近10年。冬季降水强度的上升较明显,降水日数60年代最少,近10年(1999～2008年)间的最多。气温和降水量都呈现出明显的年代际阶梯型增长趋势。这说明极端气温和极端降水量的上升对年均气温和年均降水量的上升贡献较大,同样可以证明气候趋于极端化。

Observed Climate Changes in Southwest China during 1961-2010

The present study focused on statistical analysis of interannual, interdecadal variations of climate variables and extreme climate events during the period of 1961-2010 using observational data from 376 meteorological stations uniformly distributed across Southwest China, which includes Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, Sichuan and Tibet. It was found that temperatures in most of the region were warming and this was especially evident for areas at high elevation. The warming was mostly attributable to the increase in annual mean minimum temperature. The characteristics of high temperature/heat waves are increase in frequency, prolonged duration, and weakened intensity. Annual precipitation showed a weak decreasing trend and drier in the east and more rainfall in the west. The precipitation amount in flood season was declining markedly in the whole region; rainfall from extreme heavy precipitation did not change much, and the portion of annual precipitation contributed by extreme heavy precipitation had an increasing trend; annual non-rainy days and the longest consecutive non-rainy days were both increasing; the extreme drought had a decreasing trend since the 1990s; the autumn-rain days displayed a downward fluctuation with apparent periodicity and intermittency. The number of southwestern vortices was decreasing whereas the number of moving vortices increased.

Temporal and spatial variations in extreme temperatures in the Qilian Mountains-Hexi Corridor over the period 1960-2013

Based on daily maximum and minimum temperatures at 18 meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor between 1960 and 2013,temporal and spatial variations in extreme temperatures were analysed using linear trends,tenpoint moving averages and the Mann-Kendall test.The results are as follows:The trends in the majority of the extreme temperature indices were statistically significant,and the changes in the extreme temperatures were more obvious than the changes in the extreme values.The trends were different for each season,and the changes in rates and intensities in summer and autumn were larger than those in spring and winter.Unlike the cold indices,the magnitudes and trends of the changes in the warm indices were larger and more significant in the Hexi Corridor than in the Qilian Mountains.Abrupt changes were detected in the majority of the extreme temperature indices,and the extreme cold indices usually occurred earlier than the changes in the extreme warm indices.The abrupt changes in the extreme temperatures in winter were the earliest among the four seasons,indicating that these temperature changes were the most sensitive to global climate change.The timing of the abrupt changes in certain indices was consistent throughout the study area,but the changes in the cold indices in the Hexi Corridor occurred approximately four years before those in the Qilian Mountains.Similarly,the changes in the warm indices in the western Hexi Corridor preceded those of the other regions.

The Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Data Management System for the Arctic Sciences

The brokering approach can be successfully used to overcome the crucial question of searching among enormous amount of data （raw and/or processed） produced and stored in different information systems. In this paper, authors describe the Data Management System the DMS （Data Management System） developed by INGV （Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia） to support the brokering system GEOSS （Global Earth Observation System of Systems） adopted for the ARCA （Arctic Present Climate Change and Past Extreme Events） project. This DMS includes heterogeneous data that contributes to the ARCA objective （www.arcaproject.it） focusing on multi-parametric and multi-disciplinary studies on the mechanism （s） behind the release of large volumes of cold and fresh water from melting of ice caps. The DMS is accessible directly at the www.arca.rm.ingv.it, or through the IADC （Italian Arctic Data Center） at http：//arcticnode.dta.cnr.it/iadc/gi-portal/index.jsp that interoperates with the GEOSS brokering system （http：//www.geoportal.org0 making easy and fast the search of specific data set and its URL.

中国近五百年旱涝灾害与内乱关系的定量分析

众多的大数据定量研究证明了在历史时期,极端气候变化能造成中国社会不稳定.但是,已有的研究将温度和降水量作为主要解析变量,欠缺了旱涝灾害对社会动荡影响的大数据定量分析.同时,相关研究也没有分不同地理区域和不同时间尺度进行对比和深入探讨.为解决该问题,本研究对中国三个农业生态区(水稻种植区、小麦种植区和牧业区)开展定量分析,探究公元1470~1911年间中国旱涝灾害与内乱的对应关系.鉴于旱涝与内乱的对应可能是"非线性"和"非固定性"的,我们采用Poisson回归分析和小波一致性分析检测两者关系.结果表明,旱涝灾害诱发了中国历史时期的内乱,但区域差异显著.在水稻种植区,洪涝在年际和数十年际的时间尺度引发内乱;在小麦种植区,洪涝和干旱均在年际和数十年际的时间尺度引发内乱;牧业区的内乱只在数十年际尺度与洪涝相关.此外,在数十年际时间尺度,三个农业生态区的旱涝事件只在人口密度不断增加或处于相对区域承载力较高的水平时段内和内乱显著相关.本研究指出气候-战争的对应关系明显受地区因素如自然环境及人口压力影响,有鉴于此,在研究历史时期的人地关系时,应先把不同地区的数据分割,再以每个地区为单位进行独立分析,这要点有望被广泛应用于后续研究.

次季节变率和“北极增暖-欧亚变冷”的趋势

“北极增暖-欧亚变冷”的趋势显著影响了中低纬度地区的天气形态以及极端气候变化.然而,从2012年至2021年冬季,这一趋势显著减弱.与此同时,“暖北极-冷欧亚”(WACE)与其相反位相“冷北极-暖欧亚”(CAWE)模态之间的次季节位相转换频率显著增加,并且WACE/CAWE的次季节强度与1996-2011年可比.长期的再分析数据以及CMIP6模拟数据均支持频繁的WACE/CAWE次季节反转与“北极增暖-欧亚变冷”趋势减弱同时发生.前期热带大西洋海温和印度洋海温异常分别对前冬和后冬的WACE/CAWE有显著且主要的影响,并在CAM5和AMIP的数值实验中得到有效验证.两个海温的协同作用有效地调节了WACE和CAWE之间的次季节相位转换,正如2020和2021年冬季所发生的那样.本研究结果表明中低纬度地区极端气候预测中同样需要考虑次季节变率.

Anthropogenic influence has increased climate extreme occurrence over China

There is overwhelming evidence that anthropogenic activity has exerted a great influence on climate extremes,especially on heat events at continental to global scales[1].Recently,increasing evidence has also identified the anthropogenic influence on climate extremes over China[2-4].

Impact of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming on aircraft takeoff performance in China

Associated with global warming, climate extremes such as extreme temperature will significantly increase. Understanding how climate change will impact the airflights is important to the planning of future flight operations. In this study, the impacts of 1.5 and 2 degree's global warming on the aircraft takeoff performance in China are investigated using a unique climate projection data from an international collaboration project named HAPPI. It is found that the mean summer daily maximum temperature, which is a major factor that affects the flight through changing the aircraft's takeoff weight, will increase significantly with magnitude less than 1.5℃ over most parts of China except for the Tibetan Plateau. The half a degree additional global warming will lead to higher extreme temperature in the arid and semi-arid western China, the Tibetan Plateau and the northeastern China, while the change in eastern China is weak. Five airports including Beijing, Shanghai, Kunming, Lasa and Urumqi will see ～1.0°-2.0℃(1.4°-3.0℃) higher daily maximum temperature under 1.5℃(2.0℃) scenario. The half-degree additional warming will lead to a shift toward higher extreme temperature in these five sites. For both1.5° and 2.0℃ scenarios, the number of weight-restriction days will increase significantly at 3 airports including Beijing, Shanghai, and Lasa. Urumqi will witness an increase of weight-restriction days only in 2.0℃ future.

Progress in Research on the Influences of Climatic Changes on the Industrial Economy in China

Global climate changes have led to ocean acidification,ice and snow melting,a continuous rise in temperature,and an increasing frequency of extreme weather events,with profound impacts on the social economic system.With the aggravation from climate changes,even the industrial fields with a relatively strong resistance to climatic changes have also suffered serious losses.At present,the vulnerability of the industrial field is growing,and the absolute economic losses are increasing.The quantitative evaluation of these industrial economic losses is therefore an important basis for formulating policies to tackle global climate change,and analyzing the current research progress can provide ideas and methods for the effective evaluation of the industrial economy.Therefore,in this paper,we summarized both the positive and negative effects of climate changes on the industrial fields and found that the influences of climatic changes on different industrial sectors are slightly variable.For example,while the mining industry,so far,has positively responded to the changing climate,severe weather events such as storms,drought,and rain could severely impede the normal production and business operation activities of the mining industry in the future.The manufacturing industry mostly involves indoor jobs,which are relatively resistant to extreme weather events,and some industries have complex response mechanisms.In terms of the construction industry,its losses are mainly indirect through increased electricity costs.The production and supply industries for electricity,heat,and water would suffer transmission supply losses in extreme weather events;and as the largest carbon emission industries,the costs of emission reduction would affect the economic growth of this sector in the short term.Overall,the industrial sectors pay relatively high costs for climate change mitigation and adaptation,and therefore,the quantitative evaluation of industrial economic losses through models is crucial for both the development of reasonable policies and ensuring a smooth and consistent growth of the industrial economy.

Extreme climatic events in relation to global change and their impact on life histories

Extreme weather conditions occur at an increasing rate as evidenced by higher frequency of hurricanes and more extreme precipitation and temperature anomalies. Such extreme environmental conditions will have important implications for all living organisms through greater frequency of reproductive failure and reduced adult survival. We review examples of reproductive failure and reduced survival related to extreme weather conditions. Phenotypic plasticity may not be sufficient to allow adaptation to extreme weather for many animals. Theory predicts reduced reproductive effort as a response to increased stochasticity. We predict that patterns of natural selection will change towards truncation selection as environmental conditions become more extreme. Such changes in patterns of selection may facilitate adaptation to extreme events. However, effects of selection on reproductive effort are difficult to detect. We present a number of predictions for the effects of extreme weather conditions in need of empirical tests. Finally, we suggest a number of empirical reviews that could improve our ability to judge the effects of extreme environmental conditions on life history [Current Zoology 57 （3）： 375-389, 2011].

Characterizing the Spatio-temporal Dynamics and Variability in Climate Extremes over the Tibetan Plateau during 1960–2012

Extreme climate events play an important role in studies of long-term climate change. As the Earth’s Third Pole, the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is sensitive to climate change and variation. In this study on the TP, the spatiotemporal changes in climate extreme indices(CEIs) are analyzed based on daily maximum and minimum surface air temperatures and precipitation at 98 meteorological stations, most with elevations of at least 4000 m above sea level, during 1960–2012. Fifteen temperature extreme indices(TEIs) and eight precipitation extreme indices(PEIs) were calculated. Then, their long-term change patterns, from spatial and temporal perspectives, were determined at regional, eco-regional and station levels. The entire TP region exhibits a significant warming trend, as reflected by the TEIs. The regional cold days and nights show decreasing trends at rates of-8.9 d(10 yr)-1(days per decade) and-17.3 d(10 yr)-1, respectively. The corresponding warm days and nights have increased by 7.6 d(10 yr)-1 and 12.5 d(10 yr)-1, respectively. At the station level, the majority of stations indicate statistically significant trends for all TEIs, but they show spatial heterogeneity. The eco-regional TEIs show patterns that are consistent with the entire TP. The growing season has become longer at a rate of 5.3 d(10 yr)^-1. The abrupt change points for CEIs were examined, and they were mainly distributed during the 1980 s and 1990 s. The PEIs on the TP exhibit clear fluctuations and increasing trends with small magnitudes. The annual total precipitation has increased by 2.8 mm(10 yr)^-1(not statistically significant). Most of the CEIs will maintain a persistent trend, as indicated by their Hurst exponents. The developing trends of the CEIs do not show a corresponding change with increasing altitude. In general, the warming trends demonstrate an asymmetric pattern reflected by the rapid increase in the warming trends of the cold TEIs, which are of greater magnitudes than those of the warm TEIs. This finding indicates a positive shift in the distribution of the daily minimum temperatures throughout the TP. Most of the PEIs show weak increasing trends, which are not statistically significant. This work aims to delineate a comprehensive picture of the extreme climate conditions over the TP that can enhance our understanding of its changing climate.

Host-parasite interactions under extreme climatic conditions

The effect that climatic changes can exert on parasitic interactions represents a multifactor problem whose results are difficult to predict. The actual impact of changes will depend on their magnitude and the physiological tolerance of affected organisms. When the change is considered extreme （i.e. unusual weather events that are at the extremes of the historical distribution for a given area）, the probability of an alteration in an organisms＇ homeostasis increases dramatically. However, factors determining the altered dynamics of host-parasite interactions due to an extreme change are the same as those acting in response to changes of lower magnitude. Only a deep knowledge of these factors will help to produce more accurate predictive models for the effects of extreme changes on parasitic interactions. Extreme environmental conditions may affect pathogens directly when they include free-living stages in their life-cycles and indirectly through reduced resource availability for hosts and thus reduced ability to produce efficient anti-parasite defenses, or by effects on host density affecting transmission dynamics of diseases or the frequency of intraspecific contact. What are the consequences for host-parasite interactions？ Here we summarize the present knowledge on three principal factors in determining host-parasite associations; biodiversity, population density and immunocompetence In addition, we analyzed examples of the effects of environmental alteration of anthropogenic origin on parasitic systems because the effects are analogous to that exerted by an extreme climatic change [Current Zoology 57 （3）： 390405, 2011].