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地球工程对中国极端降雨致灾人口风险的影响研究 被引量:10
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作者 孔锋 吕丽莉 +2 位作者 孙劭 王品 辛源 《灾害学》 CSCD 北大核心 2019年第1期99-106,134,共9页
在地球工程对中国极端降雨致灾因子危险性影响的研究基础上,采用BNU-ESM模式的地球工程(G4试验)和非地球工程(RCP4. 5)日值降雨数据,以日均值降雨量的95%分位数定义极端降雨事件。同时结合IPCC SSP3情景下的中国分省人口数据,评估了中... 在地球工程对中国极端降雨致灾因子危险性影响的研究基础上,采用BNU-ESM模式的地球工程(G4试验)和非地球工程(RCP4. 5)日值降雨数据,以日均值降雨量的95%分位数定义极端降雨事件。同时结合IPCC SSP3情景下的中国分省人口数据,评估了中国极端降雨灾害受影响人口风险,并对两种情景下的风险进行对比分析。结果表明:地球工程能够有效降低中国整体极端降雨灾害受影响人口风险,且实施期间的降低作用高于实施结束期。两种情景下中国极端降雨灾害受影响人口风险的区域差异增大,地球工程未能改变中国极端降雨灾害受影响人口风险的相对格局,表明在当前Geo MIP模式设定的地球工程实施当量下,人类能够有效降低气候变化风险,且不影响区域气候相对格局。 展开更多
关键词 地球工程 极端降雨灾害 人口风险 区域差异 重现期 中国
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Estimation of Critical Rainfall for Flood Disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau 被引量:4
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作者 MA Weidong LIU Fenggui +5 位作者 ZHOU Qiang CHEN Qiong ZHANG Cungui LIU Fei LI Yanyan ZHAO Pei 《Journal of Resources and Ecology》 CSCD 2021年第5期600-608,共9页
According to the results of The Second Comprehensive Scientific Expedition on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the balance of solid and liquid water on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is disturbed,and a large amount of solid water... According to the results of The Second Comprehensive Scientific Expedition on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,the balance of solid and liquid water on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is disturbed,and a large amount of solid water,such as glaciers and perpetual snow,is transformed into liquid water,which aggravates the risk of flood disasters in the Plateau.Based on the historical flood disaster records of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the flood disasters in the Plateau,and estimated the critical rainfall for the flood disasters combined with precipitation data from the meteorological stations in each basin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The results show that most of the flood disaster events in the Plateau are caused by precipitation,and the average annual occurrence of flood disasters is more than 30 cases and their frequency is on the rise.The high frequency areas of flood disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are mainly in the Hehuang Valley and the Hengduan Mountains area;the secondary high frequency areas are located in the valley area of South Tibet and the peripheral area of the Hehuang valley.Finally,we found that the highest critical rainfall value of flood disasters in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is in the southern area of the plateau,followed by the eastern and southeastern parts of the plateau,and the lowest values are in the central,western and northern parts of the Plateau. 展开更多
关键词 Qinghai-Tibet Plateau flood disaster critical rainfall
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