Urbanization is a complex process that covers a wide range of topics, of which population, industry and land urbanization are three important aspects. Jilin Province is an important agricultural province in China. The...Urbanization is a complex process that covers a wide range of topics, of which population, industry and land urbanization are three important aspects. Jilin Province is an important agricultural province in China. The contradiction between population, industry and land urbanization is especially prominent here, and its coupling development is of great practical significance. In this paper, the coupling degree of population-industry-land urbanization in Jilin Province in 1990, 2000 and 2010 is measured by coupling mode. The spatial pattern of the coupling degree is analyzed by trend surface analysis and global and local spatial autocorrelation. The influence factors and their spatial differentiation are discussed using multiple linear regression(MLR) model and geographic weighted regression(GWR) model. The results show that: 1) the coupling degree of population-industry-land urbanization in Jilin Province is at a low level. Judging from the change of time scale, the urbanization of most research units is becoming more and more coordinated. From the comparison of spatial scales, there is significant spatial difference in the research units of different administrative levels. 2) Judging from the global change trend, the coupling degree of population-industry-land urbanization in the central region is higher than that in western and eastern regions. The coordination of urbanization in the central region is relatively good, and the distribution of the cold and hot spots is basically the same as that overall. 3) The spatial pattern of the coupling degree is related to the cold and hot spot distribution of the influence coefficient of urban population density and per capita urban construction land. The variation of the coupling degree spatial pattern is synchronous with the spatial change of the urban population density influence coefficient. 4) The degree of agglomeration of the urban population is the main factor promoting the coupling pattern of population-industry-land urbanization in Jilin Province, and the extent of its influence is gradually increasing. In addition, the level of city administrative, the efficiency of urban expansion and the capacity of market consumption also have an important influence on the coupling pattern.展开更多
Over the last decades and centuries,European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations.Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes(land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activitie...Over the last decades and centuries,European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations.Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes(land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities,have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes.For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population.Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes,need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment.This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains,based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers.The proposed methodologyconsiders local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys,sub-regional climate and topographical properties,and regional economic policies.Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions.Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive(agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability.The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment(e.g.colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable.This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.展开更多
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41771172,41001099)
文摘Urbanization is a complex process that covers a wide range of topics, of which population, industry and land urbanization are three important aspects. Jilin Province is an important agricultural province in China. The contradiction between population, industry and land urbanization is especially prominent here, and its coupling development is of great practical significance. In this paper, the coupling degree of population-industry-land urbanization in Jilin Province in 1990, 2000 and 2010 is measured by coupling mode. The spatial pattern of the coupling degree is analyzed by trend surface analysis and global and local spatial autocorrelation. The influence factors and their spatial differentiation are discussed using multiple linear regression(MLR) model and geographic weighted regression(GWR) model. The results show that: 1) the coupling degree of population-industry-land urbanization in Jilin Province is at a low level. Judging from the change of time scale, the urbanization of most research units is becoming more and more coordinated. From the comparison of spatial scales, there is significant spatial difference in the research units of different administrative levels. 2) Judging from the global change trend, the coupling degree of population-industry-land urbanization in the central region is higher than that in western and eastern regions. The coordination of urbanization in the central region is relatively good, and the distribution of the cold and hot spots is basically the same as that overall. 3) The spatial pattern of the coupling degree is related to the cold and hot spot distribution of the influence coefficient of urban population density and per capita urban construction land. The variation of the coupling degree spatial pattern is synchronous with the spatial change of the urban population density influence coefficient. 4) The degree of agglomeration of the urban population is the main factor promoting the coupling pattern of population-industry-land urbanization in Jilin Province, and the extent of its influence is gradually increasing. In addition, the level of city administrative, the efficiency of urban expansion and the capacity of market consumption also have an important influence on the coupling pattern.
基金supported by the MODE RESPYR project(ANR 2010 JCJC 1804-01)founded by the French National Science Agency(ANR)
文摘Over the last decades and centuries,European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations.Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes(land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities,have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes.For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population.Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes,need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment.This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains,based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers.The proposed methodologyconsiders local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys,sub-regional climate and topographical properties,and regional economic policies.Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions.Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive(agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability.The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment(e.g.colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable.This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.
