两种药物不良反应因果关系判断方法的比较与分析

运用Naranjo提出的药物不良反应因果关系判定标准 ,对所收集到的 39例次雷公藤不良反应病例报告进行再次分析判断 ,并与运用卫生部药物不良反应监察中心制定的药品与药物不良反应 (ADRs)因果关系判断标准判断结果进行比较。结果显示 :运用此两种方法进行药物不良反应判断 ,其结果存在不一致性(Kappa =0 .0 9) ,Naranjo法更有利于不良反应的发现 ,尤其是罕见的不良反应 ,但可使报告的不良反应发生率偏高 ,研究者可根据研究目的选择相应的判断方法。

论过失侵权中因果关系判定理论的重构

文章在剖析“二分法”因果关系判定理论内在结构的基础上，认为二分法的思维模式应予舍弃，在此基础上，尝试构建新“单元”因果关系判定理论，并着重强调新“单元”因果关系判定的客观性、价值评价性以及在矫正正义需要下的适度的弹性性质。

试论因果关系的普遍性

(一) 因果关系是大家熟悉的一种事物关系,它广泛运用于人们的生产、生活和科学研究之中。对于因果关系的含义,现在尚有多种表述方式,但其最基本的意蕴则是:作为结果而出现的事物必定有它所以产生的原因(某种理由、条件、根据或相互作用事件),否则不为结果;同时,作为原因而存在的事物也必然要导致某种结果(某种新的事物或后继状态),否则也不为原因。然而,因果关系之能够广泛运用,其理论根据是什么呢?易言之,它是一种经验关系还是一种普遍的法则呢?

违约损害赔偿中可预见性规则与因果关系的比较

一、概述 可预见性规则的基本内容为:违约方仅对其订约时预见到或应当预见到的损失负赔偿责任.可预见性规则体现了主客观因素的结合.在美国,可预见性规则受到极大的关注,并成为限制损害赔偿范围的最基本手段之一.可预见性规则不仅为许多英美法系国家所采纳,而且被引入重大的国际公约,如<1980年的联合国国际货物销售合同公约>,1994年的<国际商事合同通则>等.

刑法因果关系判断标准的反思与重构

刑法因果关系的判断标准是合理定罪的关键,但是颇存争议。反思当今的各种理论,过于价值判断化的客观归责,偏离了刑法因果关系判断应有的技术性;单纯的条件关系或相当关系的适用,缺乏因果关系判断应有的普适性。应当说,刑法因果进程中所呈现出的类型性形态,是“众多原因力相因作用而造成最终结果”与“众多原因力交叉作用而造成最终结果”。因此,在刑法因果关系的判断中,事实归因应以必要条件为原则、现实充分条件为补充予以判断;规范归责应以相当关系为原则、致果共效关系为补充予以判断。这一判断标准在累积因果关系、重叠因果关系、超越因果关系、假设因果关系等因果形态中,均能获得普适性验证。

急性胰腺炎与肝功能异常之间的“因-果”关系研究进展

急性胰腺炎(acute pancreatitis,AP)与肝功能异常之间的关系问题是一个全新的临床课题,现有的研究结果暗示:AP易累及肝脏,肝功能受损也可影响胰腺.AP与肝功能异常之间可能存在着一定的互为"因-果"的关系.本文检索和分析了近十年来有关AP与肝功能异常之间关系的文献报道,从AP与肝功能异常的概念、AP诱发的肝功能异常及其机制、肝功能异常诱发的胰腺炎及其机制、胰腺炎与肝功能损伤之间的相互关系及临床意义等方面进行了综述,期望能够为对临床预防和治疗"AP"或"肝功能异常"提供新的思考,并为探索"AP"或"肝功能异常"的病理机制提供新的研究方向.

区域金融发展与经济增长——基于广西与江苏的比较视角

通过对广西与江苏1978—2007年金融发展与经济增长的时间序列数据进行检验,表明两省金融发展与经济增长间存在协整关系,且两省的金融规模的扩大都能正向的促进经济的增长;长期因果关系表明:广西的金融发展属于"供给引导型",而江苏的金融发展属于"需求跟进型";而在短期,广西的金融发展与经济增长不存在明显的因果关系,而江苏的经济增长是金融规模指标的格兰杰原因,金融结构指标与经济增长间存在双向的因果关系。

第三产业发展促进城乡协调实证分析

从第三产业发展与城乡协调理论出发,运用中国1978-2006年的时间序列数据对其进行实证检验的结果显示:我国第三产业发展对城乡协调的影响出现扭曲效应。城乡固定资产投资不协调和城乡就业增长差距受第三产业比重与就业比重影响显著,指标互为Granger因果关系,但这种影响主要表现为长期系统影响,短期波动偏离长期均衡可以得到一定程度的调整。

我国科技投入对保险需求的影响分析

在影响保险需求的诸多因素中,知识资本已经成为一个越来越备受关注的因素,而科技投入无疑是知识资本形成的首要条件。以1980～2004年度统计数据为基础,实证分析了科技投入对保险需求的影响。结果表明:①科技投入与保险需求之间不存在Granger双向因果关系;②科技投入与收入、教育投入同保险需求之间存在协整关系,表明科技投入构成了保险需求的长期因;③科技投入对保险需求的贡献率为-0.158,也就是说,技术进步对保险需求的提升作用小于对其的抑制作用。为此,应挖掘科技投入对保险需求增长的促进作用,不仅要关注增加科技投入的总量,更要重视优化科技投入的结构和提高科技资源的使用效率。

能源价格上涨对中国经济增长的影响

能源价格上涨对中国经济有很大影响。煤电油价格指数变动对国内生产总值和进出口贸易总额指数之间存在反相关关系,而对固定资产投资和消费者物价指数的影响不显著。为实现中国经济可持续发展,应加快建设节约型社会步伐,促进集约型经济发展,推进新能源研发及发展循环经济。

Research on the Karyotype and Evolution of Drosophila melanogaster Species Group

Mitotic metaphase chromosomes of 34 species of Drosophila melanogaster species group were examined. Certain new karyotypes were described for the first time, and their evolutionary and interspecific genetic relationships among 8 subgroups of D. melanogaster species group were analyzed systematically. The results were as follows. The basic karyotype of elegans subgroup was type A. The karyotypes of eugracilis subgroup, melanogaster subgroup, and ficusphila subgroup were all type C. The karyotypes of takahashii subgroup and suzukii subgroup were both type C and type D. The montium subgroup had six kinds of karyotypes types B, C, C＇, D, D＇, and E. The ananassae subgroup had three kinds of karyotypes： types F, G, and H. Thus, the melanogaster species group was classified into five pedigrees based on the diversity of these karyotypes： 1） elegans; 2） eugracilis-melanogasterficusphila; 3） takkahashii-suzukii; 4） montium; 5） ananassae. The above-mentioned results in karyotypic evolution were consistent with those of DNA sequence analysis reported by Yang except for the elegans subgroup and this subgroup was considered as the ancestral subgroup. Karyotype analysis of the same drosophila from different isofemale lines indicated that the same Drosophila from different places showed karyotypic variation which might be due to different geographical environment and evolutionary degree or interaction between the two factors.

Phylogeny of melanogaster Species Group Inferred from ND4L and ND4 Genes

The relationships within Drosophila melanogaster species group are controversial from morphology, chromosomes and DNA sequences. This study utilises a molecular approach aimed at uncovering the phylogenetic relationships among 33 taxa representing 8 subgroups of D. melanogaster species groups. Mitocondrial ND4L-ND4 was sequenced in the all 8 subgroups covering a wide geographic area. MP and Bayesian analysis produced an identical tree topology with relatively strong support in most nodes. It reveals that the melanogaster species group clustered in three main lineages：1）montium subgroup; 2） ananassae subgroup; 3） Oriental subgroups （ melanogaster, ficsphila, eugracilis, elegans, syzukii and takahashii）. The montium subgroup branched off first, followed by the ananassae subgroup. In the third lineage, melanogaster is the most divergent subgroup followed by ficsphila, eugracilis, elegans in that order. The suzukii and takahashii sister subgroups are the last to branch off.

Establishment of an ELISA to Detect Kaposi's Sarcoma-associated Herpesvirus Using Recombinant ORF73

Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) is causally related to Kaposi's sarcoma (KS), primary effusion lymphoma (PEL) and a proportion of cases of multicentric Castleman's disease (MCD). The ORF73 protein was cloned into pQE80L-orf73 and expressed in E.coli and purified. The expressed recombinant ORF73 was identified by sodium dodecyl sulfatepolyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE). A protein of about 27 kDa was expressed as expected. Western Blotting showed that the purified recombinant ORF73 reacted with KSHV positive serum. The immunogenicity of the recombinant ORF73 was further analysed by ELISA and the optimal conditions were determined. The ORF73 ELISA was used to compare the KSHV seroprevalence between Hubei and Xinjiang Han people. The Han people in Xinjiang have significantly higher KSHV seroprevalence than their counterparts in Hubei (6.7% vs 2.9%, P = 0.005).

Diet,ageing and genetic factors in the pathogenesis of diverticular disease

Diverticular disease(DD) is an age-related disorder of the large bowel which may affect half of the population over the age of 65 in the UK.This high prevalence ranks it as one of the most common bowel disorders in western nations.The majority of patients remain asymptomatic but there are associated life-threatening co-morbidities, which, given the large numbers of people with DD, translates into a considerable number of deaths per annum.Despite this public health burden, relatively little seems to be known about either the mechanisms of development or causality.In the 1970s, a model of DD formulated the concept that diverticula occur as a consequence of pressureinduced damage to the colon wall amongst those with a low intake of dietary fiber.In this review, we have examined the evidence regarding the influence of ageing, diet, inflammation and genetics on DD development.We argue that the evidence supporting the barotrauma hypothesis is largely anecdotal.We have also identified several gaps in the knowledge base which need to be filled before we can complete a model for the etiology of diverticular disease.

Human endogenous retroviruses and cancer:Causality and therapeutic possibilities

A substantial part of the human genome is derived from transposable elements;remnants of ancient retroviral infections.Conservative estimates set the percentage of human endogenous retroviruses(HERVs) in the genome at 8%.For the most part,the interplay between mutations,epigenetic mechanisms and posttranscriptional regulations silence HERVs in somatic cells.We first highlight mechanisms by which activation of members of several HERV families may be associated with tumor development before discussing the arising chances for both diagnosis and therapy.It has been shown that at least in some cases,tumor cells expressing HERV open reading frames(ORFs) thus gain tumor-promoting functions.However,since these proteins are not expressed in healthy tissues,they become prime target structures.Of potential pharmacological interest are the prevention of HERV transposition,the inhibition of HERV-encoded protein expression and the interference with these proteins' activities.Evidence from recent studies unequivocally proves that HERV ORFs represent a very interesting source of novel tumor-specific antigens with even the potential to surpass entity boundaries.The development of new tumor(immune-) therapies is a very active field and true tumor-specific targets are of outstanding interest since they minimize the risk of autoimmunity and could reduce side effects.Finally,we postulate on main future research streams in order to stimulate discussion on this hot topic.

Distinct colonoscopy findings of microscopic colitis:Not so microscopic after all?

Microscopic colitis(MC) is considered an "umbrella term",comprising two subtypes,i.e.,collagenous colitis(CC) and lymphocytic colitis(LC).They are classically associated with normal or unremarkable colonoscopy.In the last few years,reports have been published revealing findings that are thought to be characteristic or pathognomonic of MC,especially CC.A systematic electronic and manual search of PubMed and EMBASE(to December 2010),for publications on distinct endoscopic findings in MC,resulted in 42 relevant reports for inclusion in this review.Eighty eight patients with collagenous colitis were presented.Only one publication describing a distinct endoscopic pattern in LC was found.Typical findings in CC are alteration of the vascular mucosal pattern,mucosal nodularity,a sequence of change from mucosal defects to mucosal cicatricial lesions,and perhaps(although of doubtful relevance) mucosal pseudomembranes.A causal connection of mucosal defects with the use of lansoprazole seems to exist.Adoption of the proposed lesion description herein is recommended in order to improve homogeneity of future reports.

Analysis of services trade and employment in China by co-integration and causality

This article describes a study by co-integration test and Granger causality test on the relationships between China's services trades and employment using the data of services trade from the WTO website and the employment data from China Statistic Yearbook for the years from 1982 to 2003. Co-integration test showed that 1% increase in export value and import value of services created respectively 0.205% and 0.068 7% more job opportunities in the service sector. Both export and import of services impacted positively on employment in service industry, and export did more than import. However, in the short run, the impacts of services export and import on employment in service industry were both very small, though positive; and the impacts of employment in service industry on both export and import of services were very big, but not stable. Granger causality test indicated that employment in service industry was a Granger cause of services export. The findings highlight the importance of facilitating services import and reducing import barriers, and suggest that the competitiveness of China's labor- intensive services trade can be exploited to boost services export and help employment in service sector, and that the structure of services trade should be optimized by shifting from labor-intensive to knowledge-and technology-intensive services thus to enhance China's competitiveness of services export.

Nonlinear correlation between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices

The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic(DCC-GARCH) model. The results indicate that the relationship between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices reflects a complex nonlinear mechanism. There was no mutual influence between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices prior to the trials of the RMB settlement in the cross-border trade in July 2009. Since then, however, a bidirectional causal relationship between RMB internationalization and the price of copper and a unidirectional causal relationship from the price of aluminum to RMB internationalization were examined. In addition, due to the impact of extreme events, such as economic and financial crises, RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices are not always positively correlated but are rather occasionally negatively correlated.

An Integrated Approach to Oscillation Propagation Identification and Source Locating in Process Multi-loop Systems

An integrated method for identifying the propagation of multi-loop process oscillations and their source location is proposed in this paper. Oscillatory process loop variables are automatically selected based on the component-related ratio index and a mixing matrix, both of which are obtained in data preprocessing by spectral independent component analysis. The complex causality among oscillatory process variables is then revealed by Granger causality test and is visualized in the form of causality diagram. The simplification of causal connectivity in the diagram is performed according to the understanding of process knowledge and the final simplest causality diagram, which represents the main oscillation propagation paths, is achieved by the automated cutting-off thresh-old search, with which less significant causality pathways are filtered out. The source of the oscillation disturbance can be identified intuitively through the final causality diagram. Both simulated and real plant data tests are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method.

Application of causality diagram in system safety analysis

Causality Diagram (CD) is a new graphical knowledge representation based on probability theory. The application of this methodology in the safety analysis of the gas explosion in collieries was discussed in this paper, and the Minimal Cut Set, the Minimal Path Set and the Importance were introduced to develop the methodology. These concepts are employed to analyze the influence each event has on the top event ? the gas explosion, so as to find out about the defects of the system and accordingly help to work out the emphasis of the precautionary work and some preventive measures as well. The results of the safety analysis are in accordance with the practical requirements; therefore the preventive measures are certain to work effectively. In brief, according to the research CD is so effective in the safety analysis and the safety assessment that it can be a qualitative and quantitative method to predict the accident as well as offer some effective measures for the investigation, the prevention and the control of the accident.