Wind speed forecasting is signif icant for wind farm planning and power grid operation. The research in this paper uses Eviews software to build the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model of wind speed time series...Wind speed forecasting is signif icant for wind farm planning and power grid operation. The research in this paper uses Eviews software to build the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model of wind speed time series, and employs Lagrange multipliers to test the ARCH (autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) effects of the residuals of the ARMA model. Also, the corresponding ARMA-ARCH models are established, and the wind speed series are forecasted by using the ARMA model and ARMA-ARCH model respectively. The comparison of the forecasting accuracy of the above two models shows that the ARMA-ARCH model possesses higher forecasting accuracy than the ARMA model and has certain practical value.展开更多
In this paper,we propose a derivative-free trust region algorithm for constrained minimization problems with separable structure,where derivatives of the objective function are not available and cannot be directly app...In this paper,we propose a derivative-free trust region algorithm for constrained minimization problems with separable structure,where derivatives of the objective function are not available and cannot be directly approximated.At each iteration,we construct a quadratic interpolation model of the objective function around the current iterate.The new iterates are generated by minimizing the augmented Lagrangian function of this model over the trust region.The filter technique is used to ensure the feasibility and optimality of the iterative sequence.Global convergence of the proposed algorithm is proved under some suitable assumptions.展开更多
文摘Wind speed forecasting is signif icant for wind farm planning and power grid operation. The research in this paper uses Eviews software to build the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model of wind speed time series, and employs Lagrange multipliers to test the ARCH (autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) effects of the residuals of the ARMA model. Also, the corresponding ARMA-ARCH models are established, and the wind speed series are forecasted by using the ARMA model and ARMA-ARCH model respectively. The comparison of the forecasting accuracy of the above two models shows that the ARMA-ARCH model possesses higher forecasting accuracy than the ARMA model and has certain practical value.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11071122 and 11171159)the Specialized Research Fund of Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (Grant No. 20103207110002)
文摘In this paper,we propose a derivative-free trust region algorithm for constrained minimization problems with separable structure,where derivatives of the objective function are not available and cannot be directly approximated.At each iteration,we construct a quadratic interpolation model of the objective function around the current iterate.The new iterates are generated by minimizing the augmented Lagrangian function of this model over the trust region.The filter technique is used to ensure the feasibility and optimality of the iterative sequence.Global convergence of the proposed algorithm is proved under some suitable assumptions.
