Construction of a Computational Scheme for the Fuzzy HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with a Nonlinear Saturated Incidence Rate

This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.

Individual dynamics and local heterogeneity provide a microscopic view of the epidemic spreading

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused severe global disasters,highlighting the importance of understanding the details and trends of epidemic transmission in order to introduce efficient intervention measures.While the widely used deterministic compartmental models have qualitatively presented continuous “analytical” insight and captured some transmission features,their treatment usually lacks spatiotemporal variation.Here,we propose a stochastic individual dynamical(SID)model to mimic the random and heterogeneous nature of epidemic propagation.The SID model provides a unifying framework for representing the spatiotemporal variations of epidemic development by tracking the movements of each individual.Using this model,we reproduce the infection curves for COVID-19 cases in different areas globally and find the local dynamics and heterogeneity at the individual level that affect the disease outbreak.The macroscopic trend of virus spreading is clearly illustrated from the microscopic perspective,enabling a quantitative assessment of different interventions.Seemingly,this model is also applicable to studying stochastic processes at the “meter scale”,e.g.,human society’s collective dynamics.

Impact of different interaction behavior on epidemic spreading in time-dependent social networks

We investigate the impact of pairwise and group interactions on the spread of epidemics through an activity-driven model based on time-dependent networks.The effects of pairwise/group interaction proportion and pairwise/group interaction intensity are explored by extensive simulation and theoretical analysis.It is demonstrated that altering the group interaction proportion can either hinder or enhance the spread of epidemics,depending on the relative social intensity of group and pairwise interactions.As the group interaction proportion decreases,the impact of reducing group social intensity diminishes.The ratio of group and pairwise social intensity can affect the effect of group interaction proportion on the scale of infection.A weak heterogeneous activity distribution can raise the epidemic threshold,and reduce the scale of infection.These results benefit the design of epidemic control strategy.

Projecting the Dynamic Trends of Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome:Modeling the Epidemic in Sichuan Province, China

Objective Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current status and dynamic trends of the human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)prevalence in Sichuan,the second most heavily affected province in China,and to explore future interventions.Methods The epidemiological,behavioral,and population census data from multiple sources were analyzed to extract inputs for an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(AIDS)epidemic model(AEM).Baseline curves,derived from historical trends in HIV prevalence,were used,and the AEM was employed to examine future intervention scenarios.Results In 2015,the modeled data suggested an adult HIV prevalence of 0.191%in Sichuan,with an estimated 128,766 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,983 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Considering current high-risk behaviors,the model predicts an increase in the adult prevalence to 0.306%by 2025,projecting an estimated 212,168 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,555 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.Conclusion Heterosexual transmission will likely emerge as the primary mode of AIDS transmission in Sichuan.Furthermore,we anticipate a stabilization in the incidence of AIDS with a concurrent increase in prevalence.Implementing comprehensive intervention measures aimed at high-risk groups could effectively alleviate the spread of AIDS in Sichuan.

Epidemic threshold influenced by non-pharmaceutical interventions in residential university environments

The control of highly contagious disease spreading in campuses is a critical challenge.In residential universities,students attend classes according to a curriculum schedule,and mainly pack into classrooms,dining halls and dorms.They move from one place to another.To simulate such environments,we propose an agent-based susceptible–infected–recovered model with time-varying heterogeneous contact networks.In close environments,maintaining physical distancing is the most widely recommended and encouraged non-pharmaceutical intervention.It can be easily realized by using larger classrooms,adopting staggered dining hours,decreasing the number of students per dorm and so on.Their real-world influence remains uncertain.With numerical simulations,we obtain epidemic thresholds.The effect of such countermeasures on reducing the number of disease cases is also quantitatively evaluated.

Epidemic Characteristics and Spatio-Temporal Patterns of HFRS in Qingdao City,China,2010-2022

Objective This study investigated the epidemic characteristics and spatio-temporal dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Qingdao City,China.Methods Information was collected on HFRS cases in Qingdao City from 2010 to 2022.Descriptive epidemiologic,seasonal decomposition,spatial autocorrelation,and spatio-temporal cluster analyses were performed.Results A total of 2,220 patients with HFRS were reported over the study period,with an average annual incidence of 1.89/100,000 and a case fatality rate of 2.52%.The male:female ratio was 2.8:1.75.3%of patients were aged between 16 and 60 years old,75.3%of patients were farmers,and 11.6%had both“three red”and“three pain”symptoms.The HFRS epidemic showed two-peak seasonality:the primary fall-winter peak and the minor spring peak.The HFRS epidemic presented highly spatially heterogeneous,street/township-level hot spots that were mostly distributed in Huangdao,Pingdu,and Jiaozhou.The spatio-temporal cluster analysis revealed three cluster areas in Qingdao City that were located in the south of Huangdao District during the fall-winter peak.Conclusion The distribution of HFRS in Qingdao exhibited periodic,seasonal,and regional characteristics,with high spatial clustering heterogeneity.The typical symptoms of“three red”and“three pain”in patients with HFRS were not obvious.

Vaccination and Measles Epidemic in the Republic of Congo

Measles is a highly infectious, vaccine-preventable viral disease. Often forgotten, it is potentially fatal. Its main symptoms are: fever, cough, conjunctivitis, rhinitis and skin rash. Serological diagnoses by ELISA test based on the detection of anti-measles virus immunoglobulins M and G (IgM and IgG), are used respectively for the confirmation of suspected cases notified by means of clinical signs of the disease in health structures of the twelve departments of the Republic of Congo involved in the epidemiological surveillance of the disease, and for the evaluation of the immunity conferred by vaccination. During 2021, 459 suspected cases of measles were reported and sampled throughout the country, despite the administration under the Expanded Routine Immunization Program (EPI), of 2 doses of the combined measles-rubella vaccine (RR1 and RR2) in 2020. The notification rate was higher in the south of the country, more precisely in the health structures of the departments of Pointe-Noire (42%) and Brazzaville (11%). During the year 2021, 459 suspected cases of measles were notified and sampled throughout the country with a high notification rate in the south of the country, more precisely in the health structures of the Pointe-Noire departments (42%) and Brazzaville (11%). The samples consisting of human blood (serum) were sent to the National Public Health Laboratory and analyzed by various ELISA tests for the detection of anti-measles immunog-lobulins M and G. The analysis of the results obtained shows that the measles virus circulated in all departments of the country. 154 cases (33.55%) were confirmed positive by IgM ELISA and 98 positive cases (63.63%) were patients vaccinated against measles. Vaccination coverage in RR1 of [50%-95% [(first dose) as well as the lowest RR2 < 50% (second dose) undoubtedly because the COVID-19 pandemic could be the cause of the high frequency of cases positive vaccinated. The non-detection of IgG immunoglobulins in vaccinated patients observed by IgG ELISA tests revealed that 63.26% of vaccinated patients were not immunized against the measles virus. These results confirm those obtained during the Elisa IgM analysis and make it possible to deduce that the quality, the number of doses not properly administered, the individual characteristics of the people as well as the poor conservation of the administered vaccine (non-compliance with the cold chain) would explain the high proportion of positive cases of vaccinated measles observed.

Relationship Between Individuals’Epidemic Risk Perception Within Living Space and Subjective Well-Being:Empirical Evidence from China after the First Wave of COVID-19

It is common to observe the epidemic risk perception(ERP)and a decline in subjective well-being(SWB)in the context of public health events,such as Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19).However,there have been few studies exploring the impact of individuals’ERP within living space on their SWB,especially from a geographical and daily activity perspective after the resumption of work and other activities following a wave of the pandemic.In this paper,we conducted a study with 789 participants in urban China,measuring their ERP within living space and examining its influence on their SWB using path analysis.The results indicated that individuals’ERP within their living space had a significant negative effect on their SWB.The density of certain types of facilities within their living space,such as bus stops,subway stations,restaurants,fast food shops,convenience shops,hospitals,and public toilets,had a significantly negative impact on their SWB,mediated by their ERP within living space.Additionally,participation in out-of-home work and other activities not only increased individuals’ERP within living space,but also strengthened its negative effect on their SWB.

Research on the Control Cover against Solenopsis invicta and Rapid Extinguishment of Its Epidemic

Based on the biological characteristics of Solenopsis invicta and the structural characteristics of its ant nest,a fast and efficient closed treatment device was developed.Compared with the simple chemical treatment commonly used at present,the developed treatment device(the ant nest control cover)is a fast and efficient method to exterminate S.invicta in 7 d,featured by short course,quick results and good effect.

Stochastic Bifurcation of an SIS Epidemic Model with Treatment and Immigration

In this paper, we investigate an SIS model with treatment and immigration. Firstly, the two-dimensional model is simplified by using the stochastic averaging method. Then, we derive the local stability of the stochastic system by computing the Lyapunov exponent of the linearized system. Further, the global stability of the stochastic model is analyzed based on the singular boundary theory. Moreover, we prove that the model undergoes a Hopf bifurcation and a pitchfork bifurcation. Finally, several numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical results. .

Traveling Wave Solutions of a SIR Epidemic Model with Spatio-Temporal Delay

In this paper, we studied the traveling wave solutions of a SIR epidemic model with spatial-temporal delay. We proved that this result is determined by the basic reproduction number R0and the minimum wave speed c*of the corresponding ordinary differential equations. The methods used in this paper are primarily the Schauder fixed point theorem and comparison principle. We have proved that when R0>1and c>c*, the model has a non-negative and non-trivial traveling wave solution. However, for R01and c≥0or R0>1and 0cc*, the model does not have a traveling wave solution.

Stability of a Delayed Stochastic Epidemic COVID-19 Model with Vaccination and with Differential Susceptibility

In this paper, we treat the spread of COVID-19 using a delayed stochastic SVIRS (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, Susceptible) epidemic model with a general incidence rate and differential susceptibility. We start with a deterministic model, then add random perturbations on the contact rate using white noise to obtain a stochastic model. We first show that the delayed stochastic differential equation that describes the model has a unique global positive solution for any positive initial value. Under the condition R0 ≤ 1, we prove the almost sure asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the model.

Historical review and reflections on the participation of acupuncture and moxibustion in the treatment of epidemics in the People’s Republic of China (from 1950 until now)

Since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China, both the Communist Party and the government have placed great emphasis on the advancement of traditional Chinese medicine. Acupuncture and moxibustion have been actively involved in combating major epidemics such as malaria, schistosomiasis, and COVID-19. This article conducts a historical review of these three significant cases to elucidate how the acupuncture community has effectively utilized its unique advantages and characteristics through theoretical discussions, clinical practices, experimental research, as well as receiving administrative leadership and political support from the Communist Party of China and government. We provide an objective evaluation of their effectiveness while summarizing historical experiences to serve as a reference for future utilization of acupuncture and moxibustion therapy in epidemic relief efforts. Additionally, propose four suggestions: strengthening Party leadership and enhancing political support;timely summarization of experiences to establish programs and systems;deepening scientific research by integrating experimental findings with clinical practice;focusing on public awareness campaigns and education to solidify grassroots foundations.

高温声学检测技术的发展、应用与挑战

以我国航空航天、钢铁冶金、特种设备等领域的高温声学无损检测技术研究与应用为主线,分析了高温声学检测技术在促进先进高温材料制备与研发、钢铁冶金行业绿色低碳生产和产业升级、高温压力管道安全运行与维护等方面的巨大需求。介绍了国内外在高温声学检测的技术方法和仪器研制等方面取得的进展,分析了压电超声、电磁超声、激光超声、激光电磁超声等技术在高温无损检测应用方面存在的优缺点和应用场景,总结了高温声学检测技术面临的机遇与挑战。

应用于食品检测领域的分子即时检测技术研究进展

食品安全问题关系人类民生。为有效预防和控制食品安全风险,减少食品安全经济损失,迫切需要开发出针对食源性病原体、食物掺假、转基因作物的高特异性、高敏感性、快速的核酸检测技术。即时检测(point-of-care testing,POCT)作为一种新兴的快速检测手段,由于其检测速度快、操作简单、现场检查等特点,在食品检测领域应用广泛。本文首先介绍了POCT技术的发展历史,而后根据食品安全事件的特点,从食源性致病菌、食物掺假、转基因作物3个方向分析了食品检测的主要对象,阐述了分子POCT技术在食品检测领域的应用现状,最后对应用于食品检测领域的分子POCT技术存在的问题和解决办法进行了分析总结,对食品检测分子POCT技术的发展方向进行了展望。本文有助于进一步了解分子POCT技术在食品检测中的应用,并为分子POCT技术在食品快速检测中的研究和应用提供参考。

羊捻转血矛线虫病检测方法研究进展

羊捻转血矛线虫病是由捻转血矛线虫寄生于羊等小反刍动物皱胃内引起的一种危害严重的嗜血性寄生虫病。病羊临床表现为消瘦、贫血和衰弱等慢性消耗性症状,严重感染者可致死。该病在我国牧区普遍流行,目前暂无安全长效疫苗可用,加之耐药性严重,放牧羊群感染率和发病率居高不下,极大地降低了羊养殖业的经济效益。准确可靠的检测手段是诊断寄生虫感染、制定驱虫治疗方案、耐药监测及流行病学调查的关键环节。本文详细介绍了羊捻转血矛线虫病的检测技术研究现状,分析了病原学、免疫学及分子检测等方法的优缺点,并对未来检测技术发展趋势进行了展望,以期为该病新型检测方法的研发及综合防控策略提供参考。

基于轻量化网络与增强多尺度特征融合的绝缘子缺陷检测

随着无人机搭载目标检测算法在输电杆塔绝缘子巡检领域的发展,针对绝缘子缺陷检测速度较低,网络复杂度高且缺陷小目标难以准确检测的问题,提出一种基于轻量化网络与增强多尺度特征融合的YOLOv5-3S-4PH模型进行绝缘子缺陷实时检测。首先将重构的ShuffleNetV2-Stem-SPP(3S)网络作为YOLOv5的主干网络,显著减小了网络的参数量和计算量;其次引入针对小目标的增强多尺度特征融合网络以及4个预测头,来增强网络对绝缘子缺陷的感知能力,并结合Mosaic-9数据增强、CIoU损失函数进一步补偿轻量化导致的检测精度损失;最后将其应用到自制绝缘子数据集进行验证。实验结果表明,该文所提出的模型相对于未改进的YOLOv5,全类平均精度提高了3%,检测速度提高了81.8%,参数量、计算量分别压缩了82.4%、67%。因此,所提出的模型更适合部署在无人机平台上进行绝缘子缺陷的实时监测。

基于改进YOLOv3的水稻叶部病害检测

为了解决水稻小病斑检测不准确的问题,提出一种基于改进YOLOv3的水稻叶部病害检测方法Rice-YOLOv3。首先,采用K-means++聚类算法,计算新的锚框尺寸,使锚框尺寸与数据集相匹配;其次,采用激活函数Mish替换YOLOv3主干网络中的Leaky Relu激活函数,利用该激活函数的平滑特性,提升网络的检测准确率,同时将CSPNet与DarkNet53中的残差模块相结合,在避免出现梯度信息重复的同时,增加神经网络的学习能力,提升检测精度和速率;最后,在FPN层分别引入注意力机制ECA和CBAM模块,解决特征层堆叠处的特征提取问题,提高对小病斑的检测能力。在训练过程中,采用COCO数据集预训练网络模型,得到预训练权重,改善训练效果。结果表明:在测试集下,Rice-YOLOv3检测水稻叶部3种病害的平均精度均值(mAP)达92.94%,其中,稻瘟病、褐斑病、白叶枯病的m AP值分别达93.34%、89.68%、95.80%,相较于YOLOv3,Rice-YOLOv3检测的m AP提高了6.05个百分点,速率提升了2.8帧/s,对稻瘟病和褐斑病的小病斑的检测能力明显增强,可以检测出原始网络模型漏检的小病斑;与Faster-RCNN、YOLOv5等模型对比,Rice-YOLOv3提高了对相似病害和微小病害的识别能力,并在原始的基础上提高了检测速率。

复杂背景下基于YOLOv7-tiny的图像目标检测算法

“黑飞”无人机一旦带有炸弹等物品,会对人们带来威胁。对在公园、游乐场、学校等复杂背景下“黑飞”的无人机进行目标检测是十分必要的。前沿算法YOLOv7-tiny属于轻量级网络,具有更小的网络结构和参数,更适合检测小目标,但在识别小目标无人机时出现特征提取能力弱、回归损失大、检测精度低的问题;针对此问题,提出了一种基于YOLOv7-tiny改进的无人机图像目标检测算法YOLOv7-drone。首先,建立无人机图像数据集;其次,设计一种新的注意力机制模块SMSE嵌入到特征提取网络中,增强对复杂背景下无人机目标的关注度;然后,在主干网络中融入RFB结构,扩大特征层的感受野,丰富特征信息以增强特征提取的鲁棒性;然后,改进网络中的特征融合机制,通过新增小目标检测层,增加对小尺度目标的检测精度;然后,改变损失函数提高模型的收敛速度,减少损失以增强模型的鲁棒性;最后,引入可变形卷积(Deformable convolution, DCN),更好的根据目标本身形状进行特征提取,提升了检测精度。在PASCAL VOC公共数据集上进行对比实验,结果表明改进后的算法YOLO7-drone相比于YOLOv7-tiny,平均精度(map@0.5)提升了6%;在自制无人机数据集上进行实验,结果表明YOLOv7-drone与原算法相比,平均精度(map@0.5)提高了6.1%,并且检测速度为72帧/s;与YOLOv5l、YOLOv7目标检测算法进行对比实验,结果表明改进后的算法在平均精度(map@0.5)上分别高于对比算法4%、3.1%,验证了文中算法的可行性。

边缘信息增强的显著性目标检测网络

针对显著性目标检测任务中识别结果边缘模糊的问题,提出了一种能够充分利用边缘信息增强边缘像素置信度的新模型。该网络主要有两个创新点:设计三重注意力模块,利用预测图的特点直接生成前景、背景和边缘注意力,并且生成注意力权重的过程不增加任何参数;设计边缘预测模块,在分辨率较高的网络浅层进行有监督的边缘预测,并与网络深层的显著图预测融合,细化了边缘。在6种常用公开数据集上用定性和定量的方法评估了该模型,并且与其他模型进行充分对比,证明设计的新模型能够取得最优的效果。此外,该模型参数量为30.28 M,可以在GTX 1080 Ti显卡上达到31帧·s^(-1)的预测速度。