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基于概率密度估计与时序Transformer网络的风功率日前区间预测
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作者 韩宇超 同向前 邓亚平 《中国电机工程学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2024年第23期9285-9295,I0015,共12页
随着风电机组装机容量逐年攀升,风力发电已经成为电力系统重要组成部分。由于风具有间歇性的属性,风功率强烈的波动性影响着电力系统的频率稳定性。因此,准确评估风电功率波动范围对电力系统的稳定运行和调度起着重要作用。目前,区间预... 随着风电机组装机容量逐年攀升,风力发电已经成为电力系统重要组成部分。由于风具有间歇性的属性,风功率强烈的波动性影响着电力系统的频率稳定性。因此,准确评估风电功率波动范围对电力系统的稳定运行和调度起着重要作用。目前,区间预测大多采用循环神经网络及其衍生模型,这一模型架构限制了网络的深度,并且传统区间预测采用上下限预测方案,受到损失函数超参数以及初始化方式等的影响,预测精度较低且不稳定。针对这些问题,该文提出一种基于概率密度函数参数估计的区间预测方案,通过概率密度分布函数可以给出确定性以及区间预测结果;同时,提出一种时序Transformer网络,在增强局部特征提取能力的同时保留了Transformer的全局视野。通过在公开数据集中与对比模型进行对比,结果表明,该文模型不论是区间预测还是确定性预测都能提供优于基线的预测精度。 展开更多
关键词 区间预测 概率密度参数估计 时序Transformer 深度学习
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Parameters Estimation and Evaluation for the Probability Density Function of Structural Fatigue Stress of a Container Vessel
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作者 ZHOU Feng 《Journal of Shipping and Ocean Engineering》 2017年第1期1-8,共8页
Fatigue stress measurement has been playing a significant role in the ship structural health monitoring and ship structural safety assessment. The PDF (probability density function) of the measured stress is one of ... Fatigue stress measurement has been playing a significant role in the ship structural health monitoring and ship structural safety assessment. The PDF (probability density function) of the measured stress is one of the essentials for the further studyin this domain. This paper, based on the strain-stress data collected from a container ship, focuses on the spectrum feature of the ship structural fatigue stress. A general analysis procedure for ship hull health estimation was firstly demonstrated. With the guidance of this procedure, the estimation and test of the parameters for the PDF of the stress were conducted, which showed that the stress spectrums fit well with the Weibull distribution. To review the fatigue state, the PDF and distribution function of fatigue damage increment were further developed and examined. The structural healthy assessment of this vessel shown the daily relative fatigue damage increment obeys log-normal or Weibull distribution and the increment of the fatigue damage on steel box girders of the ship hull was very low. Finally, the analyzing results yielded that the girder structure of the ship hull had a very low failure probability, matching well with the actual relative low working load of the ship. 展开更多
关键词 PDF STRESS fatigue damage container ship.
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