多参数的风电输出净功率波动性概率分布研究

风电场在输出风电净功率时,风速、湍流强度以及风剪切等因素会导致并网输出功率的波动性增加,进而增加配电网的电压。为保障配电网安全运行,研究多参数的风电输出净功率波动性概率分布。根据影响风电功率波动的风速、湍流强度以及风剪切系数的分析结果,使用复数据经验模态分解方法提取风机输出功率波动量。将风速、风剪切系数以及湍流强度等参数作为约束条件,建立并校准风电输出净功率波动性概率分布模型,以实现对风电输出净功率波动性概率分布特性的精准获取。试验结果表明,所提模型的概率分布误差在0.01%以内,精度较高。该模型的波动概率值与风电场功率波动性概率分布的波动概率值相似。该模型效果较好。

“天使之翼”体育场风压特性试验

通过对梅州体育场进行测压试验,得到平均风压系数、脉动风压系数,对其风压特性做了详细分析。结果表明:控制体育场屋面的风压主要为负压,屋盖凸起处气流分离较大,导致其负压较大;当来流由低屋面进入高屋面时,在高屋面区域产生"上吸下顶"的受荷情况,负压增大;通过对屋盖测点风压时程第三、第四阶矩的统计分析发现,非高斯性测点主要分布在屋盖气流分离区和受尾流旋涡影响的区域;高斯分布和三参数伽马分布能较好地描述体育场表面风压概率特性;Sadek-Simiu法考虑了脉动风压非高斯特性,能准确地估计非高斯风压的极值。

基于Jensen—Shannon距离的随机性检测相关性研究

随机性检测通过检测随机数发生器的输出序列是否符合源假设，来评估随机数发生器。目前，存在着众多的随机性检测，本文对随机性检测之间的相关性进行研究，以此避免冗余检测。首先，通过综合已有文献，总结出了研究随机性检测之间相关性的基本思路；其次，在上述基础上提出了一种基于Jensen．Shannon距离的计算相关性的方法；最后，基于合理的随机性检测的参数，进行数据的测试。测试结果表明，NIST随机性检测集内相关性很小。

云南松林分与小蠹虫的竞争状态研究

云南松林遭小蠹虫危害以后 ,常由于林分抵御功能的不同而形成区域性的蠹害林分系统 ,即在“虫群区域”内存在着“衰退”和“发展”两种林分演变过程 ,若按“演变属性”来分析 ,则看到蓄积量下降、蓄积量停滞、蓄积量上升等 3种林分演变过程是蠹害林分系统的普遍性特征 ,前 2种属于“衰退状态” ,后 1种属于“发展状态”。对 3个蠹害林分系统的“演变属性”用二项分布P (衰退概率 ) +Q (发展概率 ) =1来描述 ,那么二项式 (P +Q) 3 方程中的系数 1、 3、 3、 1成为系统中不同“演变属性”的概率论判断。由人为因素、虫群因素、环境因素引起的林分“衰退”和“发展”当然是随机的 ,但从分析中看到人的正。

Quantitative Study on Characteristics of the Weibull Distribution

Aim To quantitatively study three characteristics of the Weibull distribution. Methods Theoritical analysis of the three characteristics of parameters of the Weibull distribution was done and mathematics software was used to make some chart analysis. Results 17 equations and 7 figures were made. Conclusion Under the standard form, the class of the Weibull probable density founction(pdf) curves appear double peak shape. Under the standard form, the maximum value point curve of the Weibull pdf takes line t =0 and t=1 as asymptotes. When β = 3 30-3 40, the Weibull distribution is the most similar to the normal distribution.

Probabilistic Properties of a Curve Number:A Case Study for Small Polish and Slovak Carpathian Basins

The proper determination of the curve number （CN） in the SCS-CN method reduces errors in predicting runoff volume. In this paper the variability of CN was studied for 5 Slovak and S Polish Carpathian catchments. Empirical curve numbers were applied to the distribution fitting. Next, theoretical characteristics of CN were estimated. For loo-CN the Generalized Extreme Value （GEV） distribution was identified as the best fit in most of the catchments. An assessment of the differences between the characteristics estimated from theoretical distributions and the tabulated values of CN was performed. The comparison between the antecedent runoff conditions （ARC） of Hawkins and Hjelmfelt was also completed. The analysis was done for various magnitudes of rainfall. Confidence intervals （CI） were helpful in this evaluation. The studies revealed discordances between the tabulated and estimated CNs. The tabulated CNs were usually lower than estimated values; therefore, an application of the median value and the probabilistic ARC of Hjelmfelt for wet runoff conditions is advisable. For dry conditions the ARC of Hjelmfelt usually better estimated CN than ARC of Hawkins did, but in several catchments neither the ARC of Hawkins nor Hjelmfelt sufficiently depicted the variability in CN.

Effect of wave spectrum width on the probability density distribution of wind-wave heights

The probability distribution of wave heights under the assumption of narrowband linear wave theory follows the Rayleigh distribution and the statistical relationships between some characteristic wave heights, derived from this distribution, are widely used for the treatment of realistic wind waves. However, the bandwidth of wave frequency influences the probability distribution of wave heights. In this paper, a wave-spectrum-width parameter B was introduced into the JONSWAP spectrum. This facilitated the construction of a wind-wave spectrum and the reconstruction of wind-wave time series for various growth stages, based on which the probability density distributions of the wind-wave heights were studied statistically. The distribution curves deviated slightly from the theoretical Rayleigh distribution with increasing B. The probability that a wave height exceeded a certain value was clearly smaller than the theoretical value for B≥0.3, and the difference between them increased with the threshold value. The relation between the Hs/σ ratio and B was investigated statistically, which revealed that the Hs/σ ratio deviated from 4.005 and declined with B. When B reached 0.698 1, the Hs/σ ratio was 3.825, which is about 95.5% of its original value. This indicates an overestimation in the a potential method for improving the accuracy of the Hs extremely large waves under severe sea states. prediction of Hs from Hs=4.005σ, and provides remote sensing retrieval algorithm, critical for

The Dynamic Channel Allocation Scheme Based on Stratification and Simulated Annealing Method

This paper proposes a dynamic channel allocation scheme based on cognitive radio （CR）. Firstly, the channel probing based on MMSE criterion is implemented, with which the probability distribution of channels in use by the primary user is given. Next, take the distances between the CR users and the primary user as basis to stratify the CR users, among the layers; the simulated annealing （SA） algorithm is used to implement the channel assigmnent. This algorithm differs from the well-known 0-1 matrix based allocation scheme, and keeps a good tradeoff between complexity, capacity as well as the fairness problems. The simulation results show that this algorithm can improve the allocation efficiency effectively.

Hellinger distance based probability distribution approach to performance monitoring of nonlinear control systems

Control performance monitoring has attracted great attention in both academia and industry over the past two decades. However, most research efforts have been devoted to the performance monitoring of linear control systems, without considering the pervasive nonlinearities(e.g. valve stiction) present in most industrial control systems. In this work, a novel probability distribution distance based index is proposed to monitor the performance of non-linear control systems. The proposed method uses Hellinger distance to evaluate change of control system performance. Several simulation examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Fatigue reliability for LNG carrier

The procedure of reliability-based fatigue analysis of liquefied natural gas(LNG) carrier of membrane type under wave loads is presented. The stress responses of the hotspots in regular waves with different wave heading angles and wave lengths are evaluated by global ship finite element method(FEM) . Based on the probabilistic distribution function of hotspots' short-term stress-range using spectral-based analysis,Weibull distribution is adopted and discussed for fitting the long-term probabilistic distribution of stress-range. Based on linear cumulative damage theory,fatigue damage is characterized by an S-N relationship,and limit state function is established. Structural fatigue damage behavior of several typical hotspots of LNG middle ship section is clarified and reliability analysis is performed. It is believed that the presented results and conclusions can be of use in calibration for practical design and initial fatigue safety evaluation for membrane type LNG carrier.

Comprehensive Analysis of Caching Performance under Probabilistic Traffic Patterns for Content Centric Networking

The phenomenon of data explosion represents a severe challenge for the upcoming big data era.However,the current Internet architecture is insufficient for dealing with a huge amount of traffic owing to an increase in redundant content transmission and the end-point-based communication model.Information-centric networking(ICN)is a paradigm for the future Internet that can be utilized to resolve the data explosion problem.In this paper,we focus on content-centric networking(CCN),one of the key candidate ICN architectures.CCN has been studied in various network environments with the aim of relieving network and server burden,especially in name-based forwarding and in-network caching functionalities.This paper studies the effect of several caching strategies in the CCN domain from the perspective of network and server overhead.Thus,we comprehensively analyze the in-network caching performance of CCN under several popular cache replication methods(i.e.,cache placement).We evaluate the performance with respect to wellknown Internet traffic patterns that follow certain probabilistic distributions,such as the Zipf/Mandelbrot–Zipf distributions,and flashcrowds.For the experiments,we developed an OPNET-based CCN simulator with a realistic Internet-like topology.

Spectrum Allocation for Cognitive Radio Networks with Non-Deterministic Bandwidth of Spectrum Hole

The spectrum allocation for cognitive radio networks(CRNs) has received considerable studies under the assumption that the bandwidth of spectrum holes is static. However, in practice, the bandwidth of spectrum holes is time-varied due to primary user/secondary user(PU/SU) activity and mobility, which result in non-determinacy. This paper studies the spectrum allocation for CRNs with non-deterministic bandwidth of spectrum holes. We present a novel probability density function(PDF) through order statistics as well as its simplified form to describe the statistical properties of spectrum holes, with which a statistical spectrum allocation model based on stochastic multiple knapsack problem(MKP) is formulated for spectrum allocation with non-deterministic bandwidth of spectrum holes. To reduce the computational complexity, we transform this stochastic programming problem into a constant MKP through exploiting the properties of cumulative distribution function(CDF), which can be solved via MTHG algorithm by using auxiliary variables. Simulation results illustrate that the proposed statistical spectrum allocation algorithm can achieve better performance compared with the existing algorithms when the bandwidth of spectrum holes is time-varied.

Steady-State Analysis of a Two-Mode Laser System with Cross-Correlation Between Real and Imaginary Parts of Quantum Noise

An inhomogeneously broadened two-mode laser system with cross-correlations between the real and imag- inary parts of quantum noise is considered. The Fokker-Planek equation of the system is derived by the phase-locking method. The steady-state probability distribution, the mean light intensity, the normalization autocorrelation function, and cross correlation function are calculated. The results indicate that： （i） The cross-correlation between the real and imaginary parts of quantum noise can cause the stationary probability distribution from one peak structure to two extrema structure when the laser system is operated above threshold; （ii） The cross-correlation between the real and imaginary parts of quantum noise enhance the light intensity fluctuation and decrease the laser output when the laser system is operated below or near threshold; （iii） The effect of the cross-correlation between the real and imaginary parts of quantum noise is very weak on the stationary properties when the laser system is operated far above threshold.

Some Fixed Point Theorems on Nonarchimedean Menger Probabilistic Metrie Space

In this paper,we have given a fixed point theorem for mapping sequence and mapping pair on nonarchimedean Mengen Probabilistic Metric space.A special case of its inference is an extension of results of reference [5-6].

Fatigue reliability assessment for bridge welded details using long-term monitoring data

A reliability assessment method of fatigue life based on the long-term monitoring data is developed for welded details in steel box girder,and the application research is presented with examples of welded rib-to-deck details in Runyang Bridges. Firstly the fatigue damage limit-state function is established based on S-N curves and Miner's rule,and the probability distribution characteristics of the coefficients in the function are discussed in detail. The uncertainties in fatigue loading effects are mainly studied based on long-term monitoring data. In the traditional studies,only the uncertainty of equivalent stress range is considered in fatigue reliability assessment. However,stress cycle number is also treated as a random variable in this paper because we know traffic flow every day differs in a thousand ways. Then the optimization method is employed to calculate the fatigue reliability. After studying the changing law of the reliability indices with time and the effect of the randomness of stress cycle number on reliability,the effect of the traffic growth on the reliability is studied. This study shows that the uncertainty in the fatigue life of the welded details can be well studied based on structural health monitoring,so it is necessary to carry out long-term strain monitoring of the welded details for accurate fatigue reliability assessment during the whole service period.

Uncertainty analysis of correlated non-normal geotechnical parameters using Gaussian copula

Determining the joint probability distribution of correlated non-normal geotechnical parameters based on incomplete statistical data is a challenging problem.This paper proposes a Gaussian copula-based method for modelling the joint probability distribution of bivariate uncertain data.First,the concepts of Pearson and Kendall correlation coefficients are presented,and the copula theory is briefly introduced.Thereafter,a Pearson method and a Kendall method are developed to determine the copula parameter underlying Gaussian copula.Second,these two methods are compared in computational efficiency,applicability,and capability of fitting data.Finally,four load-test datasets of load-displacement curves of piles are used to illustrate the proposed method.The results indicate that the proposed Gaussian copula-based method can not only characterize the correlation between geotechnical parameters,but also construct the joint probability distribution function of correlated non-normal geotechnical parameters in a more general way.It can serve as a general tool to construct the joint probability distribution of correlated geotechnical parameters based on incomplete data.The Gaussian copula using the Kendall method is superior to that using the Pearson method,which should be recommended for modelling and simulating the joint probability distribution of correlated geotechnical parameters.There exists a strong negative correlation between the two parameters underlying load-displacement curves.Neglecting such correlation will not capture the scatter in the measured load-displacement curves.These results substantially extend the application of the copula theory to multivariate simulation in geotechnical engineering.

Generalized Multivariate Gumbel Distributions——Dependence,Aging Properties and Applications

This paper introduces a generalized multivariate Gumbel(GMG) distribution using a survival copula.Various dependence properties of the GMG distribution and some analytical properties of the generators of the GMG distribution are studied.Furthermore,the authors also investigate the dependence behavior of the residual lifetime vector of the GMG distribution.As an illustration,the GMG distribution is applied to fit a real data set.

Fisher Information and Complexity Measure of Generalized Morse Potential Model

The spreading of the quantum-mechanical probability distribution density of the three-dimensional system is quantitatively determined by means of the local information-theoretic quantity of the Shannon information and information energy in both position and momentum spaces. The complexity measure which is equivalent to Cramer–Rao uncertainty product is determined. We have obtained the information content stored, the concentration of quantum system and complexity measure numerically for n = 0, 1, 2 and 3 respectively.