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非常规灾害事件情景演化的概率性生长模式——基于台风莫拉克的探索性案例研究 被引量:1
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作者 杨伟 李彤 《电子科技大学学报(社科版)》 2013年第5期14-19,共6页
使用探索性案例研究方法,对台风莫拉克在浙江的演化过程进行分析。研究发现,非常规灾害事件的情景演化过程与生物体的生长过程具有诸多相似之处,同时又具有明显的概率性。在案例研究基础上,进一步构建数学模型,给出了概率性生长模式的... 使用探索性案例研究方法,对台风莫拉克在浙江的演化过程进行分析。研究发现,非常规灾害事件的情景演化过程与生物体的生长过程具有诸多相似之处,同时又具有明显的概率性。在案例研究基础上,进一步构建数学模型,给出了概率性生长模式的形式化表达,也为仿真模拟和计算实验提供了理论基础。 展开更多
关键词 非常规灾害事件 情景演化 概率性生长 探索案例研究
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Effect of wave spectrum width on the probability density distribution of wind-wave heights
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作者 刘亚豪 侯一筠 +1 位作者 胡珀 刘泽 《Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2015年第5期1124-1131,共8页
The probability distribution of wave heights under the assumption of narrowband linear wave theory follows the Rayleigh distribution and the statistical relationships between some characteristic wave heights, derived ... The probability distribution of wave heights under the assumption of narrowband linear wave theory follows the Rayleigh distribution and the statistical relationships between some characteristic wave heights, derived from this distribution, are widely used for the treatment of realistic wind waves. However, the bandwidth of wave frequency influences the probability distribution of wave heights. In this paper, a wave-spectrum-width parameter B was introduced into the JONSWAP spectrum. This facilitated the construction of a wind-wave spectrum and the reconstruction of wind-wave time series for various growth stages, based on which the probability density distributions of the wind-wave heights were studied statistically. The distribution curves deviated slightly from the theoretical Rayleigh distribution with increasing B. The probability that a wave height exceeded a certain value was clearly smaller than the theoretical value for B≥0.3, and the difference between them increased with the threshold value. The relation between the Hs/σ ratio and B was investigated statistically, which revealed that the Hs/σ ratio deviated from 4.005 and declined with B. When B reached 0.698 1, the Hs/σ ratio was 3.825, which is about 95.5% of its original value. This indicates an overestimation in the a potential method for improving the accuracy of the Hs extremely large waves under severe sea states. prediction of Hs from Hs=4.005σ, and provides remote sensing retrieval algorithm, critical for 展开更多
关键词 wave-spectrum width probability distribution of wave heights significant wave height
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