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基于ARMA模型的水电站概率性发电量预测 被引量:12
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作者 胡百林 李晓明 +1 位作者 李小平 周达山 《电力系统及其自动化学报》 CSCD 2003年第3期62-65,共4页
水电站发电量通常具有较大的随机性 ,水电站的发电量的预测对于水电比重较大的电网结构具有重要的意义。本文首先对某水电站的年发电量序列进行分析 ,然后根据分析结果提出了基于 ARMA模型的水电站概率性发电量预测方法。
关键词 水电站 概率性发电量预测 ARMA模型 时间序列 数学模型 经济运行
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水电站群年度期货电量的划分与分解 被引量:9
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作者 周婷 王丽萍 苏学灵 《电力系统保护与控制》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2008年第22期15-19,49,共6页
基于充分发挥期货合约在风险规避、电价平抑中的积极作用的原则,本文提出了二级电力市场中水电站群期货与现货电量的划分模型;针对水电站的月发电量的不确定性及月间发电量不均匀性,进一步建立基于月发电量序列概率特征分析的年度期货... 基于充分发挥期货合约在风险规避、电价平抑中的积极作用的原则,本文提出了二级电力市场中水电站群期货与现货电量的划分模型;针对水电站的月发电量的不确定性及月间发电量不均匀性,进一步建立基于月发电量序列概率特征分析的年度期货电量分解模型,并给出模型求解算法,为水电站群在电力期货市场中的合约签订及电量分解提供了一种可行方法和依据。在算例中具体给出期货电量划分与分解的计算步骤及结果,阐明结果的内在机理。通过在科研项目中的应用,验证了该方法的有效性和合理性。 展开更多
关键词 电力市场 分解模型 电量序列概率特征分析 水电年度期货电量 二次调整
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国内外风电场上网电量计算方法简介
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作者 朱辉玉 全建军 《风力发电》 2017年第6期4-7,共4页
风电场上网电量的是项目可行性评估的基础,国内外对风电项目上网电量的计算方法存在较大差异,国外上网电量主要采用概率电量方法,国内主要采用综合折减法,本文详细介绍了两种方法的基本原理,并比较两者之间的优缺点,并提出了一定... 风电场上网电量的是项目可行性评估的基础,国内外对风电项目上网电量的计算方法存在较大差异,国外上网电量主要采用概率电量方法,国内主要采用综合折减法,本文详细介绍了两种方法的基本原理,并比较两者之间的优缺点,并提出了一定的建议。 展开更多
关键词 上网电量 概率电量 综合折减
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A Statistical Method for Characterizing CMOS Process Fluctuations in Subthreshold Current Mirrors 被引量:2
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作者 张雷 余志平 贺祥庆 《Journal of Semiconductors》 EI CAS CSCD 北大核心 2008年第1期82-87,共6页
A novel method to characterize CMOS process fluctuations in subthreshold current mirrors (SCM) is reported. The proposed model is succinct in methodology and calculation complexity compared with previous statistical... A novel method to characterize CMOS process fluctuations in subthreshold current mirrors (SCM) is reported. The proposed model is succinct in methodology and calculation complexity compared with previous statistical models. However,it provides favorable estimations of CMOS process fluctuations on the SCM circuit, which makes it promising for engineering applications. The model statistically abstracts physical parameters, which depend on the IC process, into random variables with certain mean values and standard deviations, while aggregating all the random impacts into a discrete martingale. The correctness of the proposed method is experimentally verified on an SCM circuit implemented in an SMIC 0.18μm CMOS 1P6M mixed signal process with a conversion factor of 100 in an input range from 100pA to lμA. The pro- posed theory successfully predicts - 10% of die-to-die fluctuation measured in the experiment, and also suggests the -lmV of threshold voltage standard deviation over a single die,which meets the process parameters suggested by the design kit from the foundry. The deviations between calculated probabilities and measured data are less than 8%. Meanwhile, pertinent suggestions concerning high fluctuation tolerance subthreshold analog circuit design are also made and discussed. 展开更多
关键词 CMOS process fluctuations subthreshold current mirror random variable PROBABILITY discrete martingale
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西北地区水电在年度电力期货市场中的运营 被引量:1
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作者 周婷 王丽萍 +1 位作者 白兴忠 李焰 《电网技术》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2009年第3期57-62,共6页
针对水电在西北电力市场运营中月发电量的不确定性及月间发电量不均匀性的特征,在电力市场化运营的背景下,提出西北二级电力市场中水电站群期货电量的划分模型。以月发电过程统计特征为依据,进行期货电量的年内分解和调整,并从梯级水电... 针对水电在西北电力市场运营中月发电量的不确定性及月间发电量不均匀性的特征,在电力市场化运营的背景下,提出西北二级电力市场中水电站群期货电量的划分模型。以月发电过程统计特征为依据,进行期货电量的年内分解和调整,并从梯级水电运行特征的角度验证和解释期货电量的合理性,为水电站群在电力市场中的合约签订及电量分解提供了一种可行方法和依据。以西北电网为例,计算得主要水电站期货合约可签电量达多年平均发电量的65%左右,各月分解电量保证率达95%左右,通过对该结果内在机理的进一步阐述,验证了模型的有效性和合理性。 展开更多
关键词 水电期货市场 划分模型 分解与协调模型 电量序列概率特征分析
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Solution of Wheeler-De Witt Equation, Potential Well and Tunnel Effect 被引量:2
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作者 HUANG Yong-Chang WENG Gang 《Communications in Theoretical Physics》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2005年第4X期757-761,共5页
This paper uses the relation of the cosmic scale factor and scalar field to solve Wheeler-De Witt equation,gives the tunnel effect of the cosmic scale factor a and quantum potential well of scalar field, and makes it ... This paper uses the relation of the cosmic scale factor and scalar field to solve Wheeler-De Witt equation,gives the tunnel effect of the cosmic scale factor a and quantum potential well of scalar field, and makes it fit with the physics of cosmic quantum birth. By solving Wheeler-De Witt equation we achieve a general probability distribution of the cosmic birth, and give the analysis of cosmic quantum birth. 展开更多
关键词 Wheeler-De Witt equation COSMOLOGY potential well tunnel effect
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Luminescent Efficiency in Single-layer Organic Electrophosphorescent Devices
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作者 OU Yang-jun LI Hong-jian DAI Xiao-yu 《Semiconductor Photonics and Technology》 CAS 2006年第4期245-249,261,共6页
Based on the charge injection and recombination processes and the triplet-triplet annihilation process, a model to calculate the electroluminescent(EL) efficiency is presented. The influences of the applied electric f... Based on the charge injection and recombination processes and the triplet-triplet annihilation process, a model to calculate the electroluminescent(EL) efficiency is presented. The influences of the applied electric field on the injection efficiency, recombination efficiency and electroluminescent efficiency are discussed. It is found that: (1) The injection efficiency is increasing while the recombination efficiency is decreasing with the applied electric field increasing. (2) The EL efficiency is enhanced at low electric field slowly but is decreasing at high electric field with the increase of applied voltage. (3) The EL efficiency is decreasing with the increase of the host-guest molecular distance (R). So, it is concluded that the EL efficiency in single-layer organic electrophosphorescent devices is dominated by injection efficiency at lower electric field and recombination efficiency at higher electric field. 展开更多
关键词 Injection efficiency Recombination efficiency Energy transfer probability Electrophosphorescence efficiency
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An Investigation on the Minimum Inventory of Human System Interfaces for Plant's Safe Operation
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作者 C.W. Yang T.C. Yenn +2 位作者 T.C. Cheng M.H. Chen T.M. WU 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2011年第12期1142-1148,共7页
This paper investigates the minimum inventory (MI) of human system interfaces (HSIs) (i.e. alarms, controls, and displays) for plant's safe operation and represents the analytic procedure on the MI of HSIs deve... This paper investigates the minimum inventory (MI) of human system interfaces (HSIs) (i.e. alarms, controls, and displays) for plant's safe operation and represents the analytic procedure on the MI of HSIs developed for the digital instrumentation and control (I&C) equipments in the main control room (MCR). The MI of HSIs in the MCR indicates the HSIs that the operator always needs available to: (1) monitor the status; (2) perform and confirm a reactor trip; (3) perform and confirm a controlled shutdown of the reactor; (4) actuate safety related systems; (5) analyze failure conditions of the normal HSIs; (6) implement the plant's emergency operating procedures (EOPs); (7) bring the plant to a safe condition; (8) carry out those operator actions shown to be risk important by the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). The proposed analytic procedure on the MI of HSIs in this study can be used to (1) identify the MI of HSIs and their design requirements; and (2) address design requirements and implementation for the MI of HSIs. The contribution of this study is to describe the MI of HSIs needed to implement the plant's EOPs, to bring the plant to a safe condition, and to carry out those operator actions shown to be risk important by the PKA. 展开更多
关键词 Minimum inventory human system interfaces main control room.
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Modeling and performance analysis of energy selective electron (ESE) engine with heat leakage and transmission probability 被引量:14
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作者 DING ZeMin CHEN LinGen SUN FengRui 《Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy)》 SCIE EI CAS 2011年第11期1925-1936,共12页
A model of an energy selective electron (ESE) engine with linear heat leakage and Lorentzian transmission probability is established in this paper.The expressions for the main performance parameters of the ESE engine ... A model of an energy selective electron (ESE) engine with linear heat leakage and Lorentzian transmission probability is established in this paper.The expressions for the main performance parameters of the ESE engine operating as a heat engine or a refrigerator are derived by using the theory of finite time thermodynamics.The optimum performances of the ESE engine are explored and the influences of the heat leakage,the central energy level of the resonance,and the width of the resonance on the performance of the ESE engine are analyzed by using detailed numerical examples.The optimal operation regions of power output and efficiency (or cooling load and coefficient of performance (COP)) are also discussed.Moreover,the performances of the ESE engine with Lorentzian transmission probability are compared with those with rectangular transmission probability.It is shown that the power output versus efficiency (or cooling load versus COP) characteristic curves with and without heat leakage are all closed loop-shaped ones.The efficiency (or COP) of the ESE engine decreases as the heat leakage increases.It is found that as the resonance width increases,the power output and efficiency (or cooling load and COP) increase to a maximum and then decrease due to the finite range of energies which contribute positively to the power generation or refrigeration in the electron system.Especially,when heat leakage is taken into account,the characteristic curves of maximum efficiency (or maximum COP) versus half resonance width are parabolic-like ones,which are quite different from the monotonic decreasing characteristic curves obtained in previous analyses without considering heat leakage.The results obtained in this paper can provide some theoretical guidelines for the design and operation of practical electron energy conversion devices such as solid-state thermionic refrigerators. 展开更多
关键词 energy selective electron (ESE) engine heat leakage Lorentzian transmission probability performance analysis finite time thermodynamics
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Characteristics of strong-coupling bipolaron qubit in two-dimensional quantum dot in electric field
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作者 张颖 韩超 额尔敦朝鲁 《Optoelectronics Letters》 EI 2015年第5期386-389,共4页
Based on Lee-Low-Pines(LLP) unitary transformation, this article adopts the variational method of the Pekar type and gets the energy and wave functions of the ground state and the first excited state of strong-couplin... Based on Lee-Low-Pines(LLP) unitary transformation, this article adopts the variational method of the Pekar type and gets the energy and wave functions of the ground state and the first excited state of strong-coupling bipolaron in two-dimensional quantum dot in electric field, thus constructs a bipolaron qubit. The numerical results represent that the time oscillation period T0 of probability density of the two electrons in qubit decreases with the increasing electric field intensity F and dielectric constant ratio of the medium η; the probability density Q of the two electrons in qubit oscillates periodically with the increasing time t; the probability of electron appearing near the center of the quantum dot is larger, while that appearing away from the center of the quantum dot is much smaller. 展开更多
关键词 appearing unitary dielectric periodically excited phonon constructs coordinates variational coherent
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