There are many kinds of fires occurring under different conditions. For a specific site, it is difficult to collect sufficient data for analyzing the fire risk. In this paper, we suggest an information diffusion techn...There are many kinds of fires occurring under different conditions. For a specific site, it is difficult to collect sufficient data for analyzing the fire risk. In this paper, we suggest an information diffusion technique to analyze fire risk with a small sample. The information distribution method is applied to change crisp observations into fuzzy sets, and then to effectively construct a fuzzy relationship between fire and surroundings. With the data of Shanghai in winter, we show how to use the technique to analyze the fire risk.展开更多
Plotinus' account of matter in Ennead III 6[26] 11-15 serves two purposes. The terms, evil and ugly, present the negative side of matter's causality, providing for the change characteristic of the sensible world and...Plotinus' account of matter in Ennead III 6[26] 11-15 serves two purposes. The terms, evil and ugly, present the negative side of matter's causality, providing for the change characteristic of the sensible world and the possibility of ontological evil and privation as well as of moral evil among human beings. The receptacle and other images from Plato's Timaeus present the positive side of this causality, matter as allowing for the presence of forms in the bodies of the sensible world. Plotinus explicitly articulates the linguistic problem surrounding the nature of matter, since language is derived from the corporeal and thus needs constant correction when applied to matter as incorporeal. His use of language, thus, always has two phases, first, capturing the nature of matter as aptly as possible, and second, highlighting the difference between matter and the image, analogy, or metaphor used to help explain it.展开更多
The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditio...The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic(DCC-GARCH) model. The results indicate that the relationship between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices reflects a complex nonlinear mechanism. There was no mutual influence between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices prior to the trials of the RMB settlement in the cross-border trade in July 2009. Since then, however, a bidirectional causal relationship between RMB internationalization and the price of copper and a unidirectional causal relationship from the price of aluminum to RMB internationalization were examined. In addition, due to the impact of extreme events, such as economic and financial crises, RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices are not always positively correlated but are rather occasionally negatively correlated.展开更多
This study investigates the relationship between trading volume and returns in SET50 index Futures market in the period from April 2006 to December 2008 using 653 observations. From previous studies, we include three ...This study investigates the relationship between trading volume and returns in SET50 index Futures market in the period from April 2006 to December 2008 using 653 observations. From previous studies, we include three methodologies namely the GARCH model, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to estimate systems of equations and the Granger causality test to investigate the relationship more thoroughly. In addition, we introduce the lagged volume as a new explanatory variable in the GARCH model. Overall, the results show the significant contemporaneous and dynamic relationships between trading volume and returns volatility which support the sequential information arrival hypothesis and imply some degree of market inefficiency. The results from this study also show that past information of trading volume can be used to improve the prediction of price volatility. Therefore, regulators and traders could include past information of trading volume of SET50 index futures in tracking and monitoring the market volatility level and the investment risk in order to make a timely decision.展开更多
In order to effectively decrease the safety accidents caused by coal miners’human errors,this paper probes into the causality between human errors and life events,coping,psychological stress,psychological function,ph...In order to effectively decrease the safety accidents caused by coal miners’human errors,this paper probes into the causality between human errors and life events,coping,psychological stress,psychological function,physiological function based on life events’vital influence on human errors,establishing causation mechanism model of coal miners’human errors in the perspective of life events by the researching method of structural equation.The research findings show that life events have significantly positive influence on human errors,with a influential effect value of 0.7945 and a influential effect path of‘‘life events—psychological stress—psychological function—physiological function—human errors’’and‘‘life events—psychological stress—physiological function—human errors’’.展开更多
The aim of this study is to investigate the causal relationships between key factors relating to education that affect the happiness of adolescents, and to put forward policy suggestions wherewith 20 OECD countries ma...The aim of this study is to investigate the causal relationships between key factors relating to education that affect the happiness of adolescents, and to put forward policy suggestions wherewith 20 OECD countries may raise their levels of adolescent happiness. The HBSC score of adolescents from 20 OECD countries was selected as an indicator for happiness, and a number of independent variables such as per capita GDP and per capita educational expenditure were included in the analysis. A structural equation model was employed for the analysis. The research results show that the variables that directly affected happiness were per capita educational expenditure, educational decentralization level, number of students per teacher, and others. Of these, per capita educational expenditure had the greatest influence. Of the paths to adolescent happiness, those that contained a significant indirect effect were "per capita GDP → per capita educational expenditure → happiness" and "educational decentralization → number of students per teacher → happiness", which were significant at the level ofp 〈 0.05. Compiling the paths toward adolescent happiness focusing on the significance of these direct and indirect effects shows that the "per capita GDP →per capita educational expenditure → happiness" path has the greatest effect.展开更多
The objective of this research was to develop the causal relationship model of firm characteristics factors and good corporate governance affecting the performance of the companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thai...The objective of this research was to develop the causal relationship model of firm characteristics factors and good corporate governance affecting the performance of the companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The developed model consisted of three latent variables and eight observable variables. The sample of this study was 338 companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Data are from annual reports (form-56), annual financial statements and notes to the fmancial statements during the years 2010-2013. The statistics used in this study were descriptive statistics. The causal model was analyzed through a path analysis with LISREL 8.80 Student Edition. The results showed as follows. By testing the consistence of the causal model of finn characteristics (CHA), the assumed model was consistent with empirical data. Based on the statistical test, the Chi-Square was 22.08. The statistical probability (p) was 0.077, the degree of freedom (dO was to 0, 2/2 was 1.58, RMSEA was 0.041, SRMR was 0.037, GFI was 0.98, CFI was 0.99, AGFI was 0.96. The latent variable of firm characteristics (CHA) had directly negative impact on performance (PAL) with a statistical significance level of 0.01. A path coefficient was 0.18. However, CHA variable did not indirectly influence performance (PAL) and it had directly negative impact on good corporate governance (GGN) with a path coefficient of 0.02 without statistical significance level. The latent variable of good corporate governance (GGN) had directly positive impact on the performance (PAL) with a statistical significance level of 0.05, with a path coefficient of 0.18.展开更多
Intensity of competition, especially global competition, has driven many organizations to search for innovative ways to improve productivity and performance. This trend has led many firms to adopt approaches to implem...Intensity of competition, especially global competition, has driven many organizations to search for innovative ways to improve productivity and performance. This trend has led many firms to adopt approaches to implement cloud systems. Cloud systems have distinct characteristics that differentiate it from traditional internet services, due to a number of significant innovation factors. For example, firms need improved access to high-speed intemet as well as access to customer relationship management (CRM) and enterprise resource planning (ERP) capacities. This means that the interest of many firms in the implementation of cloud systems has increased. Although cloud systems are designed to facilitate knowledge transfer, currently, there is no method to ensure that knowledge transfer is useful or relevant to a firm. This in turn means that finns need to ensure that the cloud system has the capabilities to screen knowledge for compliance against some known knowledge characteristics. The use of cloud systems could result in an efficient delivery of innovation knowledge in an effective way. This paper presents an approach for assessment of the successful implementation of cloud systems. This paper also discusses the various success factors of cloud systems for global innovation.展开更多
This study investigates the causal relationship among financial development, trade openness, and economic growth in Zambia from 1965 to 2011. Two measures of financial development were used: broad money and domestic ...This study investigates the causal relationship among financial development, trade openness, and economic growth in Zambia from 1965 to 2011. Two measures of financial development were used: broad money and domestic credit to the private sector, each as a ratio of gross domestic product (GDP). In this regard, two models were developed for each indicator. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests were used to determine stationarity of all the variables. Furthermore, Johansen test was employed to ascertain possible cointegration among variables. The vector error correction model (VECM) was employed to examine the short-run and long-run dynamics among the variables in each model. The results indicate that the relationship among financial development, trade openness, and economic growth is sensitive to the financial development indicator chosen.展开更多
Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil's Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariat...Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil's Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariate forecasting models based on intraday data from the futures and spot markets of the BOVESPA index. The interest is to verify if there exist arbitrage opportunities in Brazilian financial market. To this end, three econometric forecasting models were built: ARFIMA, vector autoregressive (VAR), and vector error correction (VEC). Furthermore, it presents the results of a Granger causality test for the aforementioned series. This type of study shows that it is important to identify arbitrage opportunities in financial markets and, in particular, in the application of these models on data of this nature. In terms of the forecasts made with these models, VEC showed better results. The causality test shows that futures BOVESPA index Granger causes spot BOVESPA index. This result may indicate arbitrage opportunities in Brazil.展开更多
Andersen and Jordan (1968) aimed to measure efficiency of monetary and fiscal actions on real GDP by employing a time-series model which was called as St. Louis Model afterwards. Although the model is performed in m...Andersen and Jordan (1968) aimed to measure efficiency of monetary and fiscal actions on real GDP by employing a time-series model which was called as St. Louis Model afterwards. Although the model is performed in many countries similarly, the results differ from each other in accordance with the economic structure of relevant country In this regard, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies on real activity and to find out causal relationship among questioned variables using OLS and causality methodologies in Turkish economy over the period 1998:1-2010: IV. Empirical findings indicate that only monetary policy has a significant positive effect on economic activity in the short run, Nonetheless, neither monetary nor fiscal policy has significant impact on real output in the long run. Causality analysis shows that there exists a unidirectional causality running from real output and money stock to government expenditures. Moreover, not surprisingly, it is also found that crisis experiences of Turkey in sample period have highly adverse impact on real activity. Causality analysis suggests us considering government expenditures as explained variable instead of real output. Hence, it can be concluded that St. Louis Model total spending equation is not applicable for Turkish economy during 1998-2010 periods展开更多
This paper deals with the problem of how to take full use of prices information to model financial markets.A range decomposition technique is proposed to decompose the returns into two components.It is proved theoreti...This paper deals with the problem of how to take full use of prices information to model financial markets.A range decomposition technique is proposed to decompose the returns into two components.It is proved theoretically that these two components are bi-directional Granger causality,which makes it convenient to establish a vector autoregressive model(VAR).Both simulations and empirical studies are performed,and the results are consistent with the theoretical ones.The range decomposition approach presented in this paper is more efficient in information employment and suggests a new framework to model financial markets.展开更多
Nowadays, increased attention is being paid to the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. This paper attempts to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and ec...Nowadays, increased attention is being paid to the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. This paper attempts to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration, using annual data covering the period 1982- 2008. In this study, unit root tests, the Johansen co-integration test, and the Granger causality test are applied. The empirical results indicate that the two series (electricity consumption and economic growth) of the three locales (Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei) are non-stationary. But first differences of the two series are stationary. The results of the Johansen co-integration test indicate that electricity consumption and economic growth are co-integrated in Hebei and Tianjin while this is not the case in Beijing. The Granger causality test implies that there is causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth in all of the three locales. Causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption is found in Hebei and Beijing while this is not the case in Tianjin. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in Hebei and Beijing. But in Tianjin, an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth while economic growth cannot affect electricity consumption. These findings can provide useful information for local governments of the three locales to formulate sustainable energy and economic policies. The study is of great significance for circular economy and building a resource-conserving society.展开更多
文摘There are many kinds of fires occurring under different conditions. For a specific site, it is difficult to collect sufficient data for analyzing the fire risk. In this paper, we suggest an information diffusion technique to analyze fire risk with a small sample. The information distribution method is applied to change crisp observations into fuzzy sets, and then to effectively construct a fuzzy relationship between fire and surroundings. With the data of Shanghai in winter, we show how to use the technique to analyze the fire risk.
文摘Plotinus' account of matter in Ennead III 6[26] 11-15 serves two purposes. The terms, evil and ugly, present the negative side of matter's causality, providing for the change characteristic of the sensible world and the possibility of ontological evil and privation as well as of moral evil among human beings. The receptacle and other images from Plato's Timaeus present the positive side of this causality, matter as allowing for the presence of forms in the bodies of the sensible world. Plotinus explicitly articulates the linguistic problem surrounding the nature of matter, since language is derived from the corporeal and thus needs constant correction when applied to matter as incorporeal. His use of language, thus, always has two phases, first, capturing the nature of matter as aptly as possible, and second, highlighting the difference between matter and the image, analogy, or metaphor used to help explain it.
基金Projects(71874210,71633006,71874207,71974208)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2020CX049)supported by Innovation-Driven Foundation of Central South University,China+1 种基金Project(2018dcyj031)supported by Postgraduate Survey Research Foundation of Central South University,ChinaProject(17K103)supported by the Innovation Platform Open Fund Project of Hunan Education Department,China。
文摘The correlation between Renminbi(RMB) internationalization and nonferrous metal prices was studied using the nonlinear Granger causality test and the dynamic conditional correlation-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic(DCC-GARCH) model. The results indicate that the relationship between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices reflects a complex nonlinear mechanism. There was no mutual influence between RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices prior to the trials of the RMB settlement in the cross-border trade in July 2009. Since then, however, a bidirectional causal relationship between RMB internationalization and the price of copper and a unidirectional causal relationship from the price of aluminum to RMB internationalization were examined. In addition, due to the impact of extreme events, such as economic and financial crises, RMB internationalization and nonferrous metal prices are not always positively correlated but are rather occasionally negatively correlated.
文摘This study investigates the relationship between trading volume and returns in SET50 index Futures market in the period from April 2006 to December 2008 using 653 observations. From previous studies, we include three methodologies namely the GARCH model, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to estimate systems of equations and the Granger causality test to investigate the relationship more thoroughly. In addition, we introduce the lagged volume as a new explanatory variable in the GARCH model. Overall, the results show the significant contemporaneous and dynamic relationships between trading volume and returns volatility which support the sequential information arrival hypothesis and imply some degree of market inefficiency. The results from this study also show that past information of trading volume can be used to improve the prediction of price volatility. Therefore, regulators and traders could include past information of trading volume of SET50 index futures in tracking and monitoring the market volatility level and the investment risk in order to make a timely decision.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71271206)
文摘In order to effectively decrease the safety accidents caused by coal miners’human errors,this paper probes into the causality between human errors and life events,coping,psychological stress,psychological function,physiological function based on life events’vital influence on human errors,establishing causation mechanism model of coal miners’human errors in the perspective of life events by the researching method of structural equation.The research findings show that life events have significantly positive influence on human errors,with a influential effect value of 0.7945 and a influential effect path of‘‘life events—psychological stress—psychological function—physiological function—human errors’’and‘‘life events—psychological stress—physiological function—human errors’’.
文摘The aim of this study is to investigate the causal relationships between key factors relating to education that affect the happiness of adolescents, and to put forward policy suggestions wherewith 20 OECD countries may raise their levels of adolescent happiness. The HBSC score of adolescents from 20 OECD countries was selected as an indicator for happiness, and a number of independent variables such as per capita GDP and per capita educational expenditure were included in the analysis. A structural equation model was employed for the analysis. The research results show that the variables that directly affected happiness were per capita educational expenditure, educational decentralization level, number of students per teacher, and others. Of these, per capita educational expenditure had the greatest influence. Of the paths to adolescent happiness, those that contained a significant indirect effect were "per capita GDP → per capita educational expenditure → happiness" and "educational decentralization → number of students per teacher → happiness", which were significant at the level ofp 〈 0.05. Compiling the paths toward adolescent happiness focusing on the significance of these direct and indirect effects shows that the "per capita GDP →per capita educational expenditure → happiness" path has the greatest effect.
文摘The objective of this research was to develop the causal relationship model of firm characteristics factors and good corporate governance affecting the performance of the companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. The developed model consisted of three latent variables and eight observable variables. The sample of this study was 338 companies listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Data are from annual reports (form-56), annual financial statements and notes to the fmancial statements during the years 2010-2013. The statistics used in this study were descriptive statistics. The causal model was analyzed through a path analysis with LISREL 8.80 Student Edition. The results showed as follows. By testing the consistence of the causal model of finn characteristics (CHA), the assumed model was consistent with empirical data. Based on the statistical test, the Chi-Square was 22.08. The statistical probability (p) was 0.077, the degree of freedom (dO was to 0, 2/2 was 1.58, RMSEA was 0.041, SRMR was 0.037, GFI was 0.98, CFI was 0.99, AGFI was 0.96. The latent variable of firm characteristics (CHA) had directly negative impact on performance (PAL) with a statistical significance level of 0.01. A path coefficient was 0.18. However, CHA variable did not indirectly influence performance (PAL) and it had directly negative impact on good corporate governance (GGN) with a path coefficient of 0.02 without statistical significance level. The latent variable of good corporate governance (GGN) had directly positive impact on the performance (PAL) with a statistical significance level of 0.05, with a path coefficient of 0.18.
文摘Intensity of competition, especially global competition, has driven many organizations to search for innovative ways to improve productivity and performance. This trend has led many firms to adopt approaches to implement cloud systems. Cloud systems have distinct characteristics that differentiate it from traditional internet services, due to a number of significant innovation factors. For example, firms need improved access to high-speed intemet as well as access to customer relationship management (CRM) and enterprise resource planning (ERP) capacities. This means that the interest of many firms in the implementation of cloud systems has increased. Although cloud systems are designed to facilitate knowledge transfer, currently, there is no method to ensure that knowledge transfer is useful or relevant to a firm. This in turn means that finns need to ensure that the cloud system has the capabilities to screen knowledge for compliance against some known knowledge characteristics. The use of cloud systems could result in an efficient delivery of innovation knowledge in an effective way. This paper presents an approach for assessment of the successful implementation of cloud systems. This paper also discusses the various success factors of cloud systems for global innovation.
文摘This study investigates the causal relationship among financial development, trade openness, and economic growth in Zambia from 1965 to 2011. Two measures of financial development were used: broad money and domestic credit to the private sector, each as a ratio of gross domestic product (GDP). In this regard, two models were developed for each indicator. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests were used to determine stationarity of all the variables. Furthermore, Johansen test was employed to ascertain possible cointegration among variables. The vector error correction model (VECM) was employed to examine the short-run and long-run dynamics among the variables in each model. The results indicate that the relationship among financial development, trade openness, and economic growth is sensitive to the financial development indicator chosen.
文摘Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil's Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariate forecasting models based on intraday data from the futures and spot markets of the BOVESPA index. The interest is to verify if there exist arbitrage opportunities in Brazilian financial market. To this end, three econometric forecasting models were built: ARFIMA, vector autoregressive (VAR), and vector error correction (VEC). Furthermore, it presents the results of a Granger causality test for the aforementioned series. This type of study shows that it is important to identify arbitrage opportunities in financial markets and, in particular, in the application of these models on data of this nature. In terms of the forecasts made with these models, VEC showed better results. The causality test shows that futures BOVESPA index Granger causes spot BOVESPA index. This result may indicate arbitrage opportunities in Brazil.
文摘Andersen and Jordan (1968) aimed to measure efficiency of monetary and fiscal actions on real GDP by employing a time-series model which was called as St. Louis Model afterwards. Although the model is performed in many countries similarly, the results differ from each other in accordance with the economic structure of relevant country In this regard, the aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies on real activity and to find out causal relationship among questioned variables using OLS and causality methodologies in Turkish economy over the period 1998:1-2010: IV. Empirical findings indicate that only monetary policy has a significant positive effect on economic activity in the short run, Nonetheless, neither monetary nor fiscal policy has significant impact on real output in the long run. Causality analysis shows that there exists a unidirectional causality running from real output and money stock to government expenditures. Moreover, not surprisingly, it is also found that crisis experiences of Turkey in sample period have highly adverse impact on real activity. Causality analysis suggests us considering government expenditures as explained variable instead of real output. Hence, it can be concluded that St. Louis Model total spending equation is not applicable for Turkish economy during 1998-2010 periods
文摘This paper deals with the problem of how to take full use of prices information to model financial markets.A range decomposition technique is proposed to decompose the returns into two components.It is proved theoretically that these two components are bi-directional Granger causality,which makes it convenient to establish a vector autoregressive model(VAR).Both simulations and empirical studies are performed,and the results are consistent with the theoretical ones.The range decomposition approach presented in this paper is more efficient in information employment and suggests a new framework to model financial markets.
基金The National Basic Research Program of China(2012BAC03B03-2)
文摘Nowadays, increased attention is being paid to the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. This paper attempts to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for China's Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration, using annual data covering the period 1982- 2008. In this study, unit root tests, the Johansen co-integration test, and the Granger causality test are applied. The empirical results indicate that the two series (electricity consumption and economic growth) of the three locales (Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei) are non-stationary. But first differences of the two series are stationary. The results of the Johansen co-integration test indicate that electricity consumption and economic growth are co-integrated in Hebei and Tianjin while this is not the case in Beijing. The Granger causality test implies that there is causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth in all of the three locales. Causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption is found in Hebei and Beijing while this is not the case in Tianjin. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in Hebei and Beijing. But in Tianjin, an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth while economic growth cannot affect electricity consumption. These findings can provide useful information for local governments of the three locales to formulate sustainable energy and economic policies. The study is of great significance for circular economy and building a resource-conserving society.